Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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000
FXUS63 KMQT 260534
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
134 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

CURRENTLY...THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM /1004MB AT THE SFC/ OVER
FAR WRN ONTARIO WITH A SFC TROUGH/COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM N OF THE
MN ARROWHEAD TO JUST W OF ASHLAND WI. IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF
THE FRONT IT IS...WARM. CURRENT SFC TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 80S
OVER WRN UPPER MI TO THE MID 70S E /DUE TO THE W-E CLEARING OF
MORNING PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER/ WITH SFC DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS RESULTING HEAT INDICES IN THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 OVER CENTRAL AND WRN UPPER MI...BUT WINDS GUSTING 15-20KTS
SHOULD HELP WITH THE EXCESS WARMTH.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING...BUT IT WILL BE
TOO DRY WITH TOO STRONG OF A CAP OVER MUCH OF THE CWA TO RESULT IN
ANY PRECIP. ONE EXCEPTION IS OVER FAR ERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND FAR NERN
UPPER MI THIS EVENING WHERE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW SOME MINOR
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS TIME OVER
THE NERN CWA.

24 HOURS FROM NOW...850MB TEMPS WILL BE 7-10C COOLER THAN NOW...SO
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S NW TO THE MID 70 SE UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 431 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

WILL START OFF AT 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES...WITH A LARGE 500MB RIDGE DOMINATING FROM N MEXICO
THROUGH IL/IN/OH THROUGH THE SE U.S. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE OF INTEREST
WAS STRETCHED FROM THE N MANITOBA/ONTARIO BORDER THROUGH SW ND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN AT THE SFC...DESPITE THE
SHORTWAVE CROSSING UPPER MI TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. INCREASED
CLOUDS COVER LOOK TO BE A GOOD BET...AND THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...KEPT WITH A DRY FCST.

THE NEXT AREA OF CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THE N EDGE OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE TS TO INVADE FROM THE S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE 500MB TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE SW
STATES NEARING FROM THE S AND CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY. TIMING
DIFFERENCES ARE SIGNIFICANT...WITH THE TROUGH EJECTING NE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AT 00Z SUNDAY THE 500MB TROUGH WILL EITHER OVER LOWER
MI /GFS/ OR OVER STILL ACROSS IA/OK /ECMWF/. THE SENSIBLE WX IS
QUITE DIFFERENT...WITH THE GFS SPITTING OUT 1-2IN OF LIQUID
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND W TO YET ANOTHER DRY DAY BY THE
ECMWF. WENT WITH A SOLUTION IN THE MIDDLE...WHICH ALLOWS FOR ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS S AND CENTRAL. OTHERWISE A CONSENSUS
SOLUTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOLLOWED WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FIGURED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

WITH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. WEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY AT
KCMX...ESPECIALLY AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE SUPERIOR THRU
THIS EVENING...MAINLY CNTRL/E AND ESPECIALLY NE GIVEN THE HUMID AIR
MASS AND PCPN THAT HAS OCCURRED. PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT AND ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL THEN WORK TO CLEAR OUT THE
FOG FROM W TO E. BEHIND THE FRONT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 15-25KT OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER THIS AFTN AND THEN
OVER CNTRL LAKE SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL
LINGER INTO TUE MORNING...THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS HIGH PRES
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER LAKES
TUE NIGHT THRU THU...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS MOSTLY UNDER
15KT. THE LIGHTER WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRI DESPITE THE HIGH MOVING
TO THE E.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS






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