Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI

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FXUS63 KMQT 050904
AFDMQT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI
404 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL BE ON THE WAY OUT THROUGH TONIGHT AS A SFC
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS IS LEADING TO LIGHT NW WIND LES
MAINLY OVER WRN UPPER MI BETWEEN IRONWOOD AND ATLANTIC MINE AND OVER
NCENTRAL UPPER MI BETWEEN MARQUETTE AND MUNISING.
ADDITIONALLY...COLDEST TEMPS ARE AROUND -20F RIGHT NOW...BUT WINDS
ARE LIGHT ENOUGH TO NOT MEET WIND CHILL CRITERIA. AS WINDS BECOME
WLY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT LIGHT LES TO BECOME MOST FOCUSED OVER
THE KEWEENAW BUT STILL REMAIN PRETTY WEAK DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER ON LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS THEN BECOME SWLY THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT AS 850MB TEMPS MODERATE TO AROUND -10C...WHICH WILL BRING AN
END TO LES OVER LAND AREAS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM 10F-16F WITH LOWS TONIGHT FROM -2F
TO 6F.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

ALTHOUGH THE MEAN UPR TROF OVER ERN NAMERICA DOWNSTREAM OF A RDG
OVER WRN NAMERICA THAT HAVE DOMINATED MUCH OF THIS WINTER WL LINGER
INTO MID NEXT WEEK...THESE FEATURES ARE FCST TO BECOME LESS
AMPLIFIED IN THE MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE. SO ALTHOUGH THERE WL COLD
FROPAS ACCOMPANYING THE PASSAGE OF SHRTWVS WITHIN THE NW TRENDING W
FLOW BTWN THE SLOWLY DEAMPLIFYING ERN TROF AND THE WRN RDG...THE
PERSISTENT DEEP CHILL WL TEND TO EASE...ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHEN TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL. THE
MEDIUM/EXTENDED RANGE WL ALSO BE MAINLY DRY AS THE CLIPPER TYPE
DISTURBANCES WL BE DEPRIVED OF ANY DEEP MSTR...AND EXTENSIVE ICE
COVER/MARGINAL CHILL OF THE COLDER AIRMASSES WL LIMIT THE INTENSITY
OF ANY LES.

FRI...A PAIR OF SHRTWVS EMBEDDED IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT WL BE TRACKING
SE. THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE WL BE MOVING THRU NRN ONTARIO...WHILE
THE WEAKER SRN ONE WL BE MOVING NEAR UPR MI/WI. WAA/ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/AXIS OF DEEPER MID LVL MSTR IN THE SW FLOW BTWN THE
ACCOMPANYING LO PRES TROF EXTENDING SW FM THE LO CENTER MOVING THRU
FAR NRN ONTARIO AND THE HI PRES RDG SINKING TOWARD THE SE STATES WL
IMPACT UPR MI INTO THE AFTN...WHEN THE SRN DISTURBANCE WL SHIFT TO
THE E OF THE FA AND GIVE WAY TO SOME SHRTWV RDGING/DNVA/MID LVL
DRYING. SOME LIGHT SN OR FLURRIES...WITH PCPN COVERAGE/INTENSITY
LIMITED BY ANTECEDENT DRY AIRMASS/LACK OF MSTR INFLOW/PASSAGE OF
SHARPER DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC TO THE N CLOSER TO THE STRONGER
ONTARIO SHRTWV...WL SHIFT W-E ACRS THE CWA. MAINTAINED SOMEWHAT HIER
CHC POPS TO THE N AND OVER THE E...WHERE THERE MAY BE MARGINAL
ENHANCEMENT IN THE LLVL SW FLOW OFF SOME OPEN WATER IN NRN LK MI.
WITH H85 TEMPS RECOVERING TO -8 TO -10C OVER THE W AND NEAR -14C
OVER THE E BY 00Z SAT...EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO MODERATE A BIT. TEMPS WL
LOWEST OVER THE E CLOSER TO THE RETREATING THERMAL TROF AND WHERE
LLVL SW FLOW OFF THE PARTIALLY ICE COVERED WATERS OF NRN LK MI WL BE
COOLED.

FRI NGT/SAT...THE NEXT CLIPPER TYPE SHRTWV IS FCST TO SWING SE THRU
THE UPR LKS ARND 12Z SAT. RECENT ECWMF RUNS HAD SHOWN A MORE INTENSE
SYSTEM...WITH 12HR H5 HGT FALLS FM 00Z-12Z SAT APRCHG 100M IN THE
VIGOROUS DPVA/DEEP LYR QVECTOR CNVGC AHEAD OF THIS DISTURBANCE. BUT
THE 00Z RUN DEPICTS A WEAKER DISTURBANCE MORE ALIGNED WITH THE REST
OF THE MODELS. ONCE AGAIN...ABSENCE OF SGNFT MSTR...WITH FCST PWAT
NO HIER THAN ABOUT 0.25 INCH...WL LIMIT THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF
PCPN ACCOMPANYING THIS SHRTWV. EXPECT THE HIEST CHC POPS IN THE 06Z-
15Z SAT TIME FRAME OVER THE NRN TIER...WHERE THERE MAY BE SOME
UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT OFF LK SUP. TRAILING SHRTWV RDG/DNVA/DEEP LYR
QVECTOR DVGC WL BRING A DRYING TREND ON SAT AFNT. WITH H85 TEMPS
SINKING TO ARND -14C UNDER THE INCOMING THERMAL TROF...THERE COULD
BE SOME LES OFF THE OPEN SPOTS IN THE LK SUP ICE COVER IN THE NW
BACKING W LLVL FLOW AHEAD OF A TRAILING SFC RDG AXIS.

SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT...EXPECT MAINLY DRY WX ON SAT NGT WITH PASSAGE
OF SFC RDG AXIS/WSHFT TO THE SW THAT SHOULD SHIFT ANY LES OFF INTO
LK SUP. NEXT MSTR STARVED CLIPPER/ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC SUPPORT WL
INFLUENCE THE AREA SUN. FCST WL SHOW SOME CHC POPS...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NRN TIER. ARRIVAL OF SFC RDG AXIS UNDER TRAILING SHRTWV RDG WL
BRING DRIER WX LATER SUN AND SUN NGT...WITH LES POTENTIAL LIMITED BY
MARGINALLY CHILLY H85 TEMPS IN THE -8C TO -11C RANGE.

EXTENDED...GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE EXTENDED MODELS SHOWING THE
FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CLIPPER TYPE
SHRTWV/SFC LO STREAKING E ACROSS ONTARIO LATER ON MON INTO TUE. THE
FCST WSW FLOW BTWN THIS SFC LO AND HI PRES MOVING INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES IS FCST TO LIFT H85 TEMPS OVER 0C AND AS HI AS 4-6C
OVER THE SRN TIER ON TUE. PCPN ACCOMPANYING THE ONTARIO CLIPPER
SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY TO THE N OF THE CWA. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME
WAA CLDS/FLURRIES ON MON...DRYING FCST FOR TUE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE
SUNSHINE AND TEMPS RISING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY INTO THE 40S OVER
MUCH OF THE CWA AWAY FM LK SUP MODERATION IN THE EXPECTED LLVL W
FLOW. MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME MORE STARK MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK AS
THE GFS SHOWS A RETURN OF COLDER AIR WHILE THE ECMWF HINTS AT A
SGNFT WARMING TREND FOLLOWING A BRIEF RETURN TO COOLER WX ON WED.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO NW FLOW ACROSS LIMITED GAPS IN LAKE
SUPERIOR ICE COVER HAS STILL PRODUCED SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
SCT CLOUDS/FLURRIES INTO THE TAF SITES. EXPECT THAT AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS INTO THE REGION WITH BACKING WINDS OVERNIGHT THAT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BACK
TO SW BY LATE THU...KEEPING ANY CLOUDS OFFSHORE.
&&

.MARINE...(FOR THE 4 AM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TODAY AND TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON (WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 30KTS).
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
SEE A SERIES OF QUICK MOVING TROUGHS/RIDGES...THAT WILL SHIFT THE
WINDS AROUND FREQUENTLY. OVERALL...IT APPEARS WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
30KTS BEHIND THE TROUGHS.
&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UPPER MICHIGAN...
NONE.
LAKE SUPERIOR...
NONE.
LAKE MICHIGAN...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TITUS
LONG TERM...KC
AVIATION...JLB
MARINE...TITUS


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