Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 260552
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
24N33W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 21N33W TO 18N35W...MOVING W AT 10
KT. METEOSAT SAL TRACKING IMAGERY AS WELL AS THE SSMI TPW
IMAGERY SHOW SAHARAN DRY AIR IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS
HINDERING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
AT ABOUT 110 NM EAST OF FAJARDO...PUERTO RICO. THIS AXIS EXTENDS
FROM 21N63W TO 10N64W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS
ASSOCIATED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG AN ELONGATED
UPPER LEVEL LOW EXTENDING SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 17N-22N
BETWEEN 59W-65W AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS OF NE PUERTO RICO.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N86W TO 09N87W...MOVING W AT 20 KT. HIGH
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH ALONG WITH
THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
ACROSS NICARAGUA...HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO
12N27W TO 11N35W TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 13N43W TO 13N46W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N46W TO
14N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 09N-15N E OF 18W
AND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 40W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US EXTENDING S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS S FROM 30N94W TO 23N96W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN MEXICO. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF FROM 24N90W
TO 26N82W. THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING
DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE SE GULF WHICH ALONG ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS INDUCING ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY S OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM 23N-26N W OF 86W. A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED W OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE MAINLY S OF 22N. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT
STATIONARY FRONT TO WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF IMPROVING
THE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH
CENTER NEAR 21N86W. THIS SYSTEM IS SUPPORTING A DIFFLUENT FLOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN WHICH COMBINED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDING TO
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...IS GENERATING CLOUDINESS AND ENHANCING
ISOLATED CONVECTION MAINLY W OF 72W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF PUERTO RICO. FOR MORE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO THE SECTION ABOVE. OVER THE NEXT 24-
48 HOURS...THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BE
AFFECTING HISPANIOLA BY SATURDAY/SUNDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...

ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A DIFFLUENT FLOW ZONE IN THE UPPER LEVELS
SUPPORT ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ACROSS THE ADJACENT WATERS
S OF HAITI. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ON THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
WILL BE AFFECTING HISPANIOLA SATURDAY TO SUNDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE CENTRAL US AND EXTENDING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FROM
27N80W TO A 1017 MB LOW NEAR 39N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS TO 120 NM OF EACH SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. TO THE SE...A PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
NEAR 19N64W THAT SUPPORTS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 19N-22N
BETWEEN 59W-65W. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS GENERALLY
N OF 28N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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