Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXNT97 KNHC 011812
AXNT20 KNHC 011755

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1255 PM EST THU DEC 1 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.



Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are being forecast for the
area that is called IRVING. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that
follow the forecast that is valid until 02/1200 UTC, consists of:
threat of N or NW near gale or gale in the W part of IRVING; threat
of cyclonic severe gale or storm in the NE part of IRVING and NW
part of MADEIRA; and threat of near gale or gale in AGADIR and
the N part of CANARIAS.


The monsoon trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 7N12W to 7N16W where it transitions to the ITCZ
that continues along 7N30W to 7N43W. Scattered moderate
convection and isolated tstms are from 6N-18N between 29W and



A broad upper level low centered N of the Great Lakes extends a
trough S-SW across the Gulf to a base over the Bay of Campeche.
This upper level feature supports a cold front that at 1500 UTC
extends across N Florida to 28N82W to 25N86W where it transitions
to a stationary front that continues along 23N93W to the Bay of
Campeche near 18N94W. Isolated showers are possible within 180 nm
W of the boundary. A surface trough is ahead of the front from
24N88W to 19N91W, however no convection is associated with it. The
pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building
behind is supporting NW to N fresh to strong winds south of 24N
west of the front with sea heights to 10 feet. Moderate N-NE flow
is over the remainder region W of the front while E-SE flow is
elsewhere E of it. The cold front will exit the south Florida
Peninsula Friday night.


The monsoon trough extends across Costa Rica to northern Colombia
and continues to supporting scattered heavy showers in the SW
Caribbean S of 12N W of 77W. Otherwise, several surface troughs
are in the basin. The westernmost trough is along the E Yucatan
Peninsula and off Belize from 18N87W to W Honduras near 15N87W
with isolated showers mainly inland. The second trough is over
Hispaniola from 22N69W to 17N70W supporting showers across
northern Island and adjacent waters. A third through is S of the
Mona Passage from 18N67W to 12N69W. The easternmost trough is
across the Leeward Islands from 19N61W to 15N62W with scattered
showers and tstms extending to the northern Windward Islands.
Otherwise, a broad upper level anticyclone centered S of
Hispaniola and strong dry air subsidence from aloft support fair
weather elsewhere. Moderate trades cover the eastern half of the
basin while gentle flow is W of 77W. The surface trough across
Hispaniola will move over the Windward passage by Friday morning
with showers.


A surface trough is over Hispaniola from 22N69W to 17N70W supporting
showers across northern Hispaniola and adjacent waters. A broad
upper level anticyclone centered S of Hispaniola and strong dry
air subsidence from aloft support fair weather elsewhere in the
Island. Showers in the northern Island will continue tonight
through Friday morning when the trough will move over the Windward


Stable and fair weather conditions dominate the SW and central
Atlantic being supported by a broad middle to upper level ridge as
well as a surface ridge anchored by a 1022 mb high near 30N57W. In
the NE Atlantic a deep layer trough supports a cold front along
30N27W to 25N33W where it starts to dissipate. No convection is
associated with the front. Farther east, diffluent flow aloft
support scattered to isolated showers N of 20N E of 30W. West of
the ITCZ, a surface trough extends from 13N44W to 5N45W with
scattered showers and isolated tstms within 120 nm either side of
its axis. Otherwise, a new cold front will start to move into SW N Atlc
waters this evening through Sunday night.

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