Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 212337
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 06N09W TO
06N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 05N30W TO 05N40W
TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 22W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM DAYTONA
BEACH FLORIDA TO W OF OCALA FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N90W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 20N97W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA
AND WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT. 10 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE
FRONT. IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW AND N OF FRONT. 10 KT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE S OF FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SE
GULF FROM 27N85W TO 22N88W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 84W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A BROAD
RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 80W IS PRODUCING SW FLOW OVER THE GULF.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT AND TROUGH TO DISSIPATE AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO BE THROUGHOUT THE GULF. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WILL BE
OVER NE FLORIDA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 65W-75W...AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF HONDURAS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 80W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SHOWERS TO ADVECT OVER JAMAICA
AND SURROUNDING WATERS...AND OVER W CUBA. ALSO EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE PERSISTS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SE OF THE
ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF
GEORGIA NEAR 31N78W. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E FROM
THE LOW TO 31N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONTS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E NEAR 32N66W. THE TAIL END OF
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N39W TO 28N43W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. A LARGE 1034
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 43N18W WITH SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ABOVE THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS ALSO CENTERED S OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 25N18W. EXPECT
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT TO PERSIST OFF
THE FLORIDA NE COAST ...AND FOR THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E WITH
SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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