Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 131804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/25W from the Cabo
Verde Islands near 15N southward. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 06N to 10N
between 20W and 26W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 16N47W 10N44W 05N42W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 13N southward between 30W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W from 22N, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A surface trough is along 68W/69W from
18N to 23N. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 17N to 24N between 60W and 75W, including
across parts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands,
and in the Atlantic Ocean. The 24-hour rainfall total for St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands was 2.17 inches, for the period
ending at 13/1200 UTC. Widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 10N to 14N between 60W and 67W. The 24-hour rainfall
total for Trinidad was 0.92 inches, for the period ending at
13/1200 UTC.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 20N
southward, moving into eastern sections of Honduras and
Nicaragua. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 10N to 17N between 80W and 85W, in parts
of Honduras and Nicaragua, and in the coastal waters between 80W
and Central America.

A tropical wave is along 95W/97W, from 20N southward, moving
through southern Mexico, just to the west of the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Convective precipitation:
nothing significant at the moment.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through southern Mauritania near
17N16W, to 08N23W, 07N32W, and 04N34W. The ITCZ continues from
04N34W to 03N37W and 03N50W. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 07N to 11N between 50W and 62W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 12N southward
from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, with more than one
comparatively smaller-scale circulation center, is in the area
that is from 94W eastward. One surface trough is along 29N80W,
into Florida just to the east of Lake Okeechobee, to NW Cuba. A
second surface trough is from 90 nm to 150 nm to the east of the
first trough, between the Bahamas and Cuba along 80W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in
Florida from 28N southward, from 23N to 25N between 81W and 85W in
the SE part of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Keys, and from
25N northward to land between 85W and 92W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Big Bend of
Texas. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 26N to 32N between 96W and 103W. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers Mexico and its coastal waters from
30N southward between 94W and 103W.

A surface ridge passes through the SW corner of Louisiana, to
21N98W in the coastal plains of Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: none.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: rain and thunder have ended for the moment, in the interior
areas of the Deep South, and in parts of the Middle Texas Gulf
coastal plains, and in Angleton/Lake Jackson. rain and thunder
are active in Kingsville, and in parts of the Houston
metropolitan area and surrounding smaller communities. LOUISIANA:
rain and thunder have ended for the moment in Galliano and
Hammond. rain and thunder are active in Slidell, and around the
area that is on the immediate southern side of Lake Pontchartrain.
MISSISSIPPI: rain and thunder are active in the Hattiesburg
metropolitan area, and from Gulfport to Pascagoula. MVFR in Bay
St. Louis. ALABAMA: light rain and MVFR in parts of the Mobile
metropolitan area. MVFR in Gulf Shores, where rain and thunder
have ended for the moment. FLORIDA: rain and thunder are active in
Crestview, Valparaiso, and Destin, at Tyndall AFB, in Punta Gorda,
and in Marathon Key. rain and thunder have ended for the moment at
the Tampa International Airport, and in other parts of the Florida
Keys.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from
20N southward between 67W and Honduras/Belize.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 19N89W, in the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Cyclonic wind flow covers the area
from Guatemala to 25N between the Yucatan Channel and 94W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N from 75W westward, beyond southern
Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: earlier numerous strong from 14N southward between
75W and 80W, has weakened and dissipated. Convective debris
clouds, and possible lingering rainshowers, are from 14N southward
between 75W and 80W.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
13/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 2.17 in St.
Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.92 in Trinidad, 0.28 in Freeport
in the Bahamas, 0.14 in Guadeloupe and in Nassau in the Bahamas,
and 0.02 in San Juan in Puerto Rico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans Hispaniola.
Isolated moderate rainshowers have developed across the island.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: MVFR. ceiling
2000 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.
few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of broad cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough for the first
18 hours or so. Expect southerly wind flow for the rest of the
48-hour forecast period, at the western end of a ridge. The GFS
MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow with an
inverted trough will be present for the first 6 hours to 12 hours.
Expect anticyclonic wind flow, with an E-to-W oriented ridge,
across the area for the rest of the 48-hour forecast period.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that day one will consist
of broad cyclonic wind flow with an inverted trough for the first
18 hours or so. Expect SE wind flow with a bit of a ridge for the
rest of day one. Day two will start with the same ridge and
anticyclonic flow for the first 6 hours or so. The rest of day two
will consist of E and SE wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along 77W/78W from Cuba to 30N. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from Cuba to
32N between 73W and 82W in Florida. A second surface trough is
along 72W/73W from 20N to 26N. Convective precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Bahamas and the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 24N between 66W and 75W.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is 27N63W. Upper level
cyclonic wind flow is within 315 nm on either side of 32N60W
23N68W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally
strong from 25N to 31N between 54W and 66W.

A surface trough is along 51W/52W from 16N to 26N. Convective
precipitation: Broken low level clouds and isolated moderate
from 18N to 28N between 43W and 55W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



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