Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued by NWS

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000
AXNT20 KNHC 261728
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXITS THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND
EXTENDS TO 05N16W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND EXTENDS TO 05N30W
TO 05N40W TO 03N45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120
NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS...AND FROM THE EQUATOR TO 07N
BETWEEN 08W AND 17W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM ATLC HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MODERATE SOUTH-EASTERLY WINDS
COVER THE EASTERN GULF...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTH-EASTERLIES
OVER THE WESTERN GULF. A THERMAL NON-CONVECTIVE SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 23N96W TO 18N96W. A WEAK
IMPULSE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE GULF. OTHERWISE...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER
DOMINATES THE BASIN TODAY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A COLD FRONT
WILL CROSS TEXAS AND APPROACH THE NW GULF COAST HELPING TO
MAINTAIN FRESH RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
THERMAL TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN WILL MOVE W TO NW TONIGHT
SUPPORTING FRESH WINDS OVER THE SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO
19N65W TO 19N72W...INCLUDING HISPANIOLA. THE COMBINATION OF THE
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND AN UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 15N BETWEEN
65W AND 75W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE W ATLC AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA SUPPORT MAINLY
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS MODELS ARE FORECASTING AN ONGOING INTERACTION
BETWEEN A MOIST AIRMASS OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SURROUNDING WATERS SUPPORTING CONVECTION
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

HISPANIOLA...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
HISPANIOLA TODAY AS A STATIONARY FRONT DISSIPATES OVER THE
REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. DEEP
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE WESTERN ATLC W OF 65W ANCHORED BY
HIGH PRESSURE N OF BERMUDA AND THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. A
WEAKENING SURFACE LOW OF 1011 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 26N56W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 25N63W. NO DEEP
CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS SYSTEM. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A 992 MB LOW NEAR 32N46W WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM A TRIPLE POINT TO THE E OF THE LOW NEAR 31N42W TO
22N52W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS
TO 19N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W OF 57W. FRESH TO STRONG W
TO NW WINDS ARE NW OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 24N. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N31W COVERS
THE EASTERN ATLC. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE NEAR THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT N AND NE OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL DETACH FROM THE
DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUE EAST TO THE E ATLC
WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO


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