Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 260759
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016

...VALID 12Z FRI AUG 26 2016 - 12Z SAT AUG 27 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
15 NW KMIU 35 W VCT GTU 10 N FWS AQR 15 ESE MKO 15 S GMJ
15 ESE CFV 25 WNW BVO 10 NNE WDG GAG 30 SSW CAO 10 ESE TAD
25 SSE AKO 10 NNW OGA 55 WNW TIF 20 SSE CUT 50 ENE HEI
35 ESE DVL 15 NW FSE ILL 20 ENE FRM 35 E VOK RAC UGN 30 NNE DNV
10 SE CUL 20 NNW POF 10 NE ARG 35 S MKL 15 NNE TUP 25 SSW M89
15 SE 4F4 40 NW BPT 10 SW ARA 10 NW KXPY 15 WNW KMDJ.

MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
20 SSE FLG 25 SE IGM 20 ENE LSV 25 WNW SGU 40 N BCE 25 NE BCE
45 W PGA 30 N FLG 20 SSE FLG.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
45 WSW HLC SDA 20 SSE DBQ C09 10 ENE DEC 30 SW PPQ 15 SSE GBD
50 N EHA LAA 30 SSW ITR 45 WSW HLC.


SOUTHWEST
~~~~~~~~~
A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WILL
ACROSS OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/ROCKIES.  THIS WILL LEAD TO
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS/NORTHERN AZ REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE.  LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 2-3" COULD CAUSE ISSUES IN NORTHWEST AZ,
FAR SOUTHERN NV, AND SOUTHWEST UT, SO INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK IN
THIS AREA.


NORTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PORTIONS OF KS/MO/IA/IL COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINS AS
DEEPER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ATTEMPTS TO INTERSECT A FRONTAL TRYING
TO RETURN NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  LOW-LEVEL
INFLOW INTERACTING WITH THE AVAILABLE INSTABILITY COULD ALLOW FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  MODEL QPF SHOWS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD, AS SOME
PIECES OF GUIDANCE ALLOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT TO REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO AND IL DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS, WHICH WOULD INTERCEPT INSTABILITY
WHICH WOULD OTHERWISE BE AVAILABLE FARTHER NORTHWARD ACROSS WI
WHERE THE WARM FRONT`S 850 HPA SLICE WOULD BE SHIFTING TOWARDS.
THIS LED TO A BROAD MARGINAL RISK AREA DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.  THE
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SHOWS POCKETS OF 3-5" SCATTERED ACROSS NE, KS,
MO, AND IL WHICH WOULD EXCEED THREE HOURLY FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES, THOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT AS TO WHERE EXACTLY
THIS WOULD OCCUR.  MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK AREAS SEEN ON DAY 2
YESTERDAY SINCE IT IS PLAUSIBLE, THOUGH REARRANGED IT SLIGHTLY
BASED ON THE 06Z/12Z QPF CYCLES.

ROTH
$$




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