000
FOUS30 KWBC 160617
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
217 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...VALID 06Z SUN JUN 16 2013 - 12Z MON JUN 17 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



SOUTHEASTERN KS

CONCERNS FOR HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO THE EARLY HOURS OF MONDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO PUSH EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.  A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO LIE IN A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION FROM THE
LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  THERE ARE A LOT OF DETAIL
DIFFERENCES WITH THE QPF IN THIS SCENARIO---BUT GENERAL AGREEMENT
FOR POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ANYWHERE FROM FAR
SOUTHERN NE---THROUGH KS INTO NORTHERN OK.  THERE ARE RELATIVELY
LOW FFG VALUES OVER SOUTHEASTERN KS FROM RECENT RAINS---WITH THIS
AREA HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF EXCEEDING FFG VALUES IF THE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION CAN PUSH THAT FAR SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  ELSEWHERE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS--FFG
VALUES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH AND THE EXPECTED PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION SHOULD BE A DETRIMENT TO QPF VALUES EXCEEDING
FFG VALUES.

ORAVEC
$$