Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 010635
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
234 AM EDT FRI AUG 01 2014

...VALID 06Z FRI AUG 01 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 02 2014...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
35 E LVS ROW 25 WSW CNM 35 S GDP 80 SE MMCS 30 ESE MMCS
20 W MMCS 25 S DMN 10 SSW SVC 25 N SVC 70 NW TCS 70 NNW TCS
25 SW ABQ 30 E 4SL 20 WNW SKX 25 ESE VTP 15 S TAD 35 E LVS.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
GSO 15 SE EHO 15 W FQD 20 ESE TNB 10 ENE HLX 25 SE HSP
25 ESE LYH GSO.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 SSE NHK 20 NNW SBY 20 E GED 20 ESE WAL 15 N FFA 15 WNW HSE
30 E SUT 40 SE CRE 15 NE CRE 15 SW GSB 15 NE ASJ 25 SSE NHK.



...SOUTHERN ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST U.S...
...REF MPD #239...
MOIST POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN PRIME
AREAS OF EXTREME SRN CO..NM..AND WRN TX..ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE..FOR THE POTNL FOR STRONG SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION UNDER WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WEAK SELY LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL HELP MAINTAIN PWS OF BETWEEN 1.25 TO 1.50 INCHES ACRS
THE REGION AND THE COMBINATION OF THE HI MSTR AND EXPECTED
INCREASING AFTN INSTABILITY WILL HELP STORMS BECOME FAIRLY COMMON
ACRS MUCH OF CNTL/ERN NM SWD INTO EXTREME WRN TX DURING THE AFTN
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT.  POTNL WILL EXIST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
GIVEN ANTECEDENT LOW FFG VALUES AND EXPECTED SHORT TERM RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR IN SOME SPOTS.  FARTHER
W...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LESS ORGANIZED BUT A SURGE
IN HIER PWS NWD INTO SRN AZ LATE FRI/FRI NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF NWD
MOVING UPR IMPULSE OVER NW MEX COULD BRING A THREAT OF SCTD
HEAVIER TSTMS WITH THREAT OF ISOLD HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS THERE.
 MODELS SHOW A BIT MORE SPREAD WITH QPF DETAILS ACRS AZ/SRN CA AND
THUS WENT SOMEWHAT MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH AREAL AVG AMOUNTS.


...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
85H CIRC ACRS NE TX AS OF 06Z IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENL EWD WHILE
SLOWLY WEAKENING THIS DP ACRS MS BY SAT MRNG.  ORGANIZED SLOW
MOVING TSTMS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CIRC COULD BRING SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND RUNOFF ISSUES THRU EARLY FRI MRNG ACRS
PARTS OF NRN LA.  COULD SEE SOME SHORT TERM 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS WITH
ISOLD HEAVIER AMOUNTS THAT MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLD RUNOFF ISSUES
THRU EARY SATL MRNG BEFORE 85H CIRC SHIFTS EWD AND WEAKENS.

...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/SOUTHEAST..INTO THE MID ATLC REGION...
...REF MPD #240...
MODEST 85H SELY FLOW AHEAD OF S/WV IMPULSE LIFTING NEWD FROM THE
SRN APLCNS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ORGANIZED MDT TO
LOCALLY HEAVY UPSLOPE RAINS ACRS PARTS OF THE SRN APLCNS THRU
EARLY FRI MRNG WHERE HIGH PWS WILL SUPPORT SOME ADDITIONAL SHORT
TERM HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PLUS IN SEVERAL HRS.
THESE RAINS ON TOP OF EARLIER HEAVY RAINS SUGGEST THREAT OF
ADDITIONAL RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL OCCUR THRU FRI MRNG ESPECIALLY
OVER WRN NC/SW VA/NW SC.  EMPHASIS FOR HEAVIER RAINS SHOULD
GRADUALLY SHIFT EWD TOWARD WWD PROPAGATING COASTAL FRONT THAT
SHOULD BECOME MORE ALIGNED NE/SW WITH THE MID LEVEL FLOW ALONG THE
CAROLINA COASTAL PLAIN INTO THE DELMARVA REGION DURING FRI
AFTN/NIGHT.  EXPECT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE RAINS TO SPREAD NEWD ALONG
THIS BNDRY WHERE INCREASING CAPES AND PWS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES
WILL EXPAND.  IN ADDITION...INCREASING RT ENTRANCE REGION JET WILL
HELP PROVIDE BROAD ASCENT.  SOME TRAINING OF STORMS WILL BE PSBL
LEADING TO THREAT OF HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS ACRS ERN NC INTO
PARTS OF THE DELMARVA.  LOWER RES NAM WAS THOUGHT TO TAKE HEAVIER
PCPN AMOUNTS TOO FAR NWWD ACRS THE MID ATLC REGION WITH MANUAL
PROGS GENLY FAVORING A BLEND OF THE HI RES GUIDANCE WHICH FOCUSED
HEAVIER AMOUNTS MUCH FARTHER EAST TOWARD EXPECTED BETTER
INSTABILITY..MSTR.


SULLIVAN


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