Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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000
FOUS30 KWBC 191346
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
945 AM EDT FRI AUG 19 2016

...VALID 15Z FRI AUG 19 2016 - 12Z SAT AUG 20 2016...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


MARGINAL RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
70 SW MRF MRF 10 N FST 15 E MDD 40 NNE SNK 40 ENE PVW 20 NW AMA
15 SE GUY 25 SSE DDC 25 SSW HYS 20 ESE HLC 15 SSE LXN 20 NNW ODX
ONL 45 SE 9V9 15 W 9V9 50 WNW HON 25 S 8D3 10 ESE BBB 15 NNW ULM
10 ENE EST 15 SSE SLB 15 ESE CBF STJ IXD PPF TQH 15 NNE FSM
25 W RUE 30 NNW LRF 10 NNW M19 35 N DYR 20 E CKV 15 W OQT
25 E DNN 10 WSW 8A0 10 SE CBM 40 E GWO 20 E GLH 20 SE ELD
25 ESE LBR 20 SSE GVT 20 ESE INJ 15 WSW 05F ERV 30 SSE MMPG
65 NE MMMV.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 E AVK 20 SW P28 20 ENE PTT 10 SE SLN HJH 15 SE LNK 15 W FNB
20 NNW TOP EMP 10 WNW WLD 25 E AVK.

SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
95 SSW MRF 40 S E38 35 WNW 6R6 45 ENE 6R6 50 SW BWD 35 W 6R9
25 WNW UVA 65 N MMMV.


...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...

THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT FOR THIS PERIOD WILL AGAIN BE
FOCUSED OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE AMPLIFYING MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF ACROSS THE
MID SECTION OF THE NATION AS HEIGHT FALLS DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN EXPANDING
AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY CONVECTIVE RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS WITHIN A REGION OF STRENGTHENING UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION JET
DYNAMICS DIVING SOUTH OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL BE COINCIDING
WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL INFLOW TONIGHT INTO A FRONTAL ZONE
AND COUPLED WITH INCREASING PW VALUES. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS...CONFIDENCE DOES REMAIN LIMITED WITH RESPECT
TO DETAILS OF TIMING AND THE EXACT QPF AXIS. THERE HAS BEEN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY AMONG THE MODELS...INCLUDING THE CAMS. WPC
QPF DID NOT FAVOR ONE PARTICULAR MODEL SOLUTION BUT RATHER A
CONSENSUS OF SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING HI RES ENSEMBLES TO ATTEMPT TO
SHOW A CONSISTENT EVOLUTION. EXPECT THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
AND HEAVIEST RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE 0000 TO 1200 UTC SATURDAY
TIME FRAME...ALONG WITH THE GREATEST EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT
WHEN TRAINING OF CELLS IN A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
FASHION WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. WILL BE MAINTAINING THE AFOREMENTIONED SLIGHT
RISK AREA OVER CENTRAL/EASTERN KS WITHIN THE BROADER MARGINAL RISK
AREA. THE MARGINAL RISK WAS EXPANDED NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT UP INTO
SOUTHEAST SD AND SOUTHWEST MN TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SIGNAL IN SOME HI
RES GUIDANCE FOR LOCALLY CONCENTRATED HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS/BIG BEND OF TX INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...

FARTHER REMOVED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT
ACROSS THE MID SECTION OF THE NATION...HEAVY RAINS WILL AGAIN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE PWS...WHICH ARE REACHING
UP TO OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE NORMAL. THIS EXPECTED
TO STRETCH ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE
NATION FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS AND
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO
THE QPF DETAILS IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS...BUT GREATER CONFIDENCE THAT
ADDITIONAL LOCALLY HEAVY TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE WHERE UVVS WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE SERIES OF VORTS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE WESTERLIES. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH DETAILS...THERE IS A
MODEL SIGNAL FOR POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO FROM NORTHERN COAHUILA INTO
SOUTHWEST TX INTO THE VICINITY OF THE BIG BEND. GIVEN FFG VALUES
ARE RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THESE AREAS...A SLIGHT RISK WAS DEPICTED
HERE. ELSEWHERE IN THIS HIGH PW AXIS...A MARGINAL RISK IS DEPICTED
WHICH WAS TWEAKED A TAD FOR THE 15Z ISSUANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
RELATIVELY WELL ORGANIZED NATURE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS TN
RIGHT NOW.

ORRISON
$$





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