Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

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FOUS30 KWBC 261418
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1017 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...VALID 15Z SUN JUL 26 2015 - 12Z MON JUL 27 2015...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WSW TMB 20 NNW MTH 30 NW MTH 45 N KEY 40 SW APF 50 WSW FMY
45 SSW SRQ 30 WSW SRQ 20 WSW SPG PIE 20 S LAL 30 NE PGD
35 NE RSW 50 E RSW 30 WNW HWO 25 WSW TMB.

...SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
ELONGATED UPPER LOW STRETCHING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY TO ISOLATED EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWEST FLORIDA IN THE AXIS OF
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MOISTURE FLUX OFF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE ELONGATED UPPER TROF.  MODELS ARE AGAIN
SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A PRECIP MAX OVER SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA---WITH MORE SPREAD IN QPF SOLUTIONS AWAY FROM SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA. ISOLATED VERY HEAVY TOTALS AGAIN POSSIBLE IN THIS STRONG
INFLOW AXIS--WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 5" POSSIBLE.


SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
25 WNW GCK 40 E LAA 15 W LAA 40 NNW LHX 20 ESE MNH 20 NW LIC
30 SW AKO 25 SE AKO 30 S IML 35 WSW MCK 30 WSW MCK 35 ESE MCK
35 S HDE 45 ENE HLC 35 NNE HYS 20 NNW HYS 35 SW HYS 35 NNW DDC
25 WNW GCK.

...EAST CENTRAL CO INTO NW KS...

ANOTHER ROUND OF POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE NEXT AREA OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES FROM THE LEE OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW/ENHANCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THESE
HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FROM
EASTERN CO AROUND 0000 UTC MON---PUSHING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KS
IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.  WITH POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZATION OF
CONVECTION---ISOLATED RUNOFF ISSUES POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL CO
INTO NW KS WHERE FFG VALUES ARE RELATIVELY LOW.



...PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO INTO WESTCENTRAL IL...

ONGOING MCS STILL LOOKING GOOD THRU PARTS OF NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IA AT THIS TIME..BUT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME WEAKENING
PAST HOUR OR SO.  BELIEVE SOME WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS..AND MORE IMPORTANTLY THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER PROGRESSIVE..AS THE SUPPORTING H5 S/WV TO ITS NORTH
CONTINUES MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD.  THERE COULD STILL BE SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS INTO THE VERY EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MO INTO WESTCENTRAL IL..BUT THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE MCS..ITS MOVEMENT INTO SOMEWHAT HIGHER FF GUIDANCE
VALUES..AND EXPECTED WEAKENING SHOULD MEAN ANY FLOODING THREAT
WILL DECREASE/SUBSIDE BY MID AFTERNOON.

ORAVEC/TERRY
$$





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