Quantitative Precipitation Forecast
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
000
FOUS30 KWBC 040751
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
251 AM EST MON DEC 04 2017

...VALID 12Z MON DEC 04 2017 - 12Z TUE DEC 05 2017...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE...LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ARE SET TO OCCUR MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
40...BUT A SURGING STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A FEW HUNDRED
J/KG OF MUCAPE IN AREAS FARTHER SOUTH...AND THE HI-RES MODELS
SUGGEST THIS WILL SUPPORT EVOLUTION INTO A LENGTHY NARROW SQUALL
LINE ADVANCING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE AREA NEAR THE
ARKLATEX HAS THE ADVANTAGE OF SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY AND
SOME PADDING FROM EARLY MORNING WARM ADVECTION-FORCED
PRECIPITATION TO BOOST 24-HOUR TOTALS. AREAS DOWNSTREAM TOWARD
WESTERN TENNESSEE SHOULD SEE A LITTLE BETTER DEVELOPED SQUALL LINE
WITH SOME TRAILING STRATIFORM REGION...ALONG WITH SOMEWHAT
LINGERING MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE. THUS...WPC IS FORECASTING AREAL
AVERAGE 0.75 TO 1.25 INCHES FROM FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND INCLUDING PARTS OF LA/MS/TN. THE THREAT OF
FLASH FLOODING SHOULD BE MINIMIZED BY THE WEAK INSTABILITY...QUICK
PROGRESSION...AND RECENT DRY WEATHER...BUT SINCE THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL WILL OCCUR IN ONLY A 1 TO 2 HOUR DURATION AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED RAPID RUNOFF IN
THE MOST HYDROLOGICALLY SUSCEPTIBLE LOCATIONS.

BURKE

$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.