000
FOUS30 KWBC 170006
QPFERD

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
805 PM EDT THU MAY 16 2013

...VALID 00Z FRI MAY 17 2013 - 00Z SAT MAY 18 2013...
...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...



SRN AR...

SOME SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR PSBL LOCAL HEAVY TO EXCESSIVE RAINS
OVER PORTIONS OF SRN AR AS MODELS SHOW FAVORABLE WAA PATRN INTO SW
PORTION OF SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPR TROF DURING THE OVERNIGHT PD.
LATEST SFC DATA SHOWS DECENT E/W BNDRY HAS SET UP ACRS PARTS OF NE
TX INTO SRN AR BEHIND EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH DROPPED SEWD
THROUGH NW LA.  RADAR HAS SHOWN A SLOW BUT STEADY INCREASE IN
CONVECTION NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE BNDRY ACRS SRN AR.  WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY DVLPG TO THE SOUTH OF THE SFC BNDRY..EXPECT
ADDTIONAL ACTIVITY TO DVLPG ALONG LOW LEVEL JET/PW AXIS ACRS
EXTREME NE TX INTO SRN AR/EXTREME NRN LA DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT WITH POTNL FOR CELL REGENERATION/TRAINING IN RESPONSE TO
DEEPER WSWLY TO WLY FLOW ALOFT BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS FARTHER EWD
INTO MS LATER TONIGHT.  SEE LATEST MESOSCALE PRECIPITATON
DISCUSSION #39 FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

SULLIVAN
$$