012
FXUS62 KMLB 091914
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
314 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

- Scattered late afternoon and evening storms today, particularly
  over the interior. Frequent lightning, gusty winds to 35-45 mph,
  and locally heavy rain will accompany the strongest storms.

- Near-normal to slightly above-normal temperatures and humidity
  persist each afternoon. With peak heat index values of 100-106F,
  visitors and residents will need to stay hydrated and seek
  breaks in the shade or A/C.

- Scattered storms remain in the forecast each day, but overall
  coverage may increase next week as a slow-moving disturbance
  approaches the state.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Currently...GOES satellite imagery shows PWATs around 1.6-1.8"
across East Central Florida, right around normal for the time of
year, but dry air in the low-mid levels, apparent in this
morning`s soundings, continues to suppress convection. That said,
we are seeing more life than this time yesterday, and even very
quick pulses of convection have been able to produce some
lightning. Convection is developing a little slower across the
northern half of the area due to a residual cool air pool from
storms that formed near the nature coast in the morning (though
the boundary could be good focus for new storms), and high clouds
slowing daytime heating a bit. This is compared to North and South
Florida, where higher moisture has supported some decent
lightning storms in the early afternoon.

Rest of Today-Tonight...Weak, stacked high pressure with a
surface ridge axis tenuously extending to Central Florida will
continue to produce light winds, until the sea breeze moves in and
shifts winds onshore. Showers and lightning storms remain mainly
isolated as the sea breezes move inland through the rest of the
afternoon (chances 20-40%), with the highest coverage and majority
of storms along the collision over the interior in the evening
(chances 40-60%). Once again, plenty of instability but dry air
entrainment in the low-mid levels will continue to be a hurdle for
deep convection. That said, a few stronger storms will be
possible where boundaries find pockets of higher low-level
moisture, capable of wind gusts to 45 mph, frequent cloud to
ground lightning, and torrential downpours. Afternoon highs near
normal in the U80s-L90s, which combined with humidity will result
in peak afternoon heat indices in the U90s-M100s, leading to
Moderate HeatRisk impacts across much of the area.

Thursday-The Weekend...(Modified Previous Discussion) Surface
high pressure slips a little farther south on Thursday and Friday,
however, prevailing light winds will allow sea breeze formation
each day. The focus of showers and storms looks a little closer to
the coast and across South Central Florida on Thursday and
Friday, as models continue to indicate somewhat drier air closer
to the I-4 corridor.

This weekend, the surface ridge axis is forecast to return
northward toward Central Florida. Seasonable coverage of afternoon
and evening storms, mainly focused over the interior, can be
expected as moisture across increases a bit.

Quick heating in the morning and early afternoon will allow heat
indices to bounce up to as high as 106 deg F. Those working or
playing outdoors should know the signs of heat illness and never
leave children or pets in unattended vehicles.

Early Next Week...(Modified Previous Discussion) Could finally see
a change in the pattern, depending on the development of mid-level
disturbances approaching from the Atlantic, weakening the surface
high and increasing moisture. This should introduce higher
coverage of showers and storms across Central Florida. This
unsettled setup may last well into next week. Temperatures remain
near normal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions. The Atlantic high remains
in control of local conditions, as the ridge axis shifts from over
Central Florida and the adjacent Atlantic waters today south
toward South Florida late in the work week. The ridge axis then
shifts back towards Central Florida this weekend. Despite
movement of the ridge axis, a loose pressure gradient will result
in mainly light southerly winds, shifting southeasterly and
increasing a bit to around 10 kts in the afternoon with the sea
breeze, then easing and shifting southwesterly towards morning
with the land breeze. While stronger storms should mostly remain
inland, a few showers and storms are in the forecast for the
Atlantic waters, particularly in the overnight and morning hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025

As of TAF issuance, the east coast sea breeze has pushed beyond
all coastal terminals, igniting pulse showers as the boundary
moves inland. Lightning & vis/cig reduction potential has likely
ended to the east, with focus shifting towards a collision across
the interior this afternoon. Have maintained TEMPO for KSFB/KMCO
and KISM after 20Z thru sunset for convection, with slightly
higher chances than days prior. MVFR/IFR reductions in
thunderstorms. Another night of variable winds, becoming south
after 14/15Z. Showers and storms again on Thursday after 18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  91 /  40  40  20  40
MCO  76  93  76  93 /  50  50  20  60
MLB  76  90  76  90 /  20  40  20  50
VRB  74  91  74  91 /  10  40  20  50
LEE  75  93  76  93 /  50  40  20  50
SFB  76  94  77  94 /  50  40  20  50
ORL  77  93  77  94 /  50  50  20  60
FPR  74  91  75  90 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Schaper