Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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971
FXUS62 KMLB 140850
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
350 AM EST Wed Feb 14 2018

...Stretch of Above Normal Temperatures Continues Into Next
Week...

.DISCUSSION...
Current...Recent observations overlaid on GOES-16 imagery
indicate a backdoor front has settled as far south as the Space
Coast. On its backside, cool and moist air is wedging down the
peninsula and nearshore Atlantic waters, aided by surface ridging
nosing out of GA/N FL. As a result, conditions are rather dreary
this morning with widespread low clouds and some fog. The only
exception (as of 4 AM) is across the Treasure Coast where the low
level flow hasn`t backed as a result of the inverted trough/front.
Offshore, isolated showers are pushing toward the coast and
providing an opportunity for brief light rain south of Cape
Canaveral.

Today/Tonight...High resolution models including both the HRRR
and local WRF show the weak inverted trough (the remnants of the
backdoor front) lingering over the Treasure Coast and offshore
Brevard/Volusia county. Unfortunately, the resulting north to
northeast flow on the feature`s backside complicate both the sky
cover and temperature forecast for the next 12 to 18 hours. Expect
this morning`s widespread low clouds and fog to lift slowly, with
more improvement expected the further south one travels.
Accordingly, highs have been adjusted downward across the north,
especially over northern Brevard and Volusia County where clouds
should hold on the longest. Expect enough sunshine south of
Orlando and Melbourne to keep temps in the upper 70s and low 80s,
which would continue the streak of well above normal conditions in
these areas.

Maintained a small chance for precip over central and southern
areas (mainly south of a line connecting Titusville/Kissimmee)
where enough convergence along the old boundary and daytime
heating will generate isolated showers. It should be noted that
available moisture will steadily decline through the day as
ridging builds in aloft.

Another opportunity for some fog and low clouds exists tonight,
though the troublesome trough will have largely dissipated by
then. Lingering moisture and very light drainage flow suggest a
chance for stratus and fog across coastal sections north of the
Cape and over the interior. Temps will remain about 10 degrees
above normal overnight.

Thu...590 DM ridge aloft at 500 mbs will be across the central Gulf
of Mexico with the low level ridge axis across central FL. Mean
moisture levels will remain low with PWATs from 1.1 to 1.2 inches.
Some early morning fog and light winds will give way to partly to
mostly sunny skies and warm afternoon temperatures near 80/lower 80s
coastal to mid 80s across portions of the interior.

Thu Night...Light south/southeast winds will become calm overnight
with areas of fog developing inland and patchy fog near the coast.
Low temps will range from upper 50s in cooler spots inland to around
60/lower 60s for the remainder of east central Florida.

Fri...The surface ridge axis will slip slowly south through the day
reaching the srn counties into late afternoon. The mid level ridge
aloft will elongate eastward toward south FL and the Bahamas. Dry
weather will continue with a drier airmass lingering near the
surface ridge axis with PWATs around .9 inches across the south and
up to 1.1-1.2 inches from Orlando northward. High temps will reach
the lower 80s coastal to mid 80s interior.

Sat-Mon...The mid level ridge east of state will be dominant weather
feature into early next week which should keep a frontal boundary
approaching north Florida Sunday well north of the area through
Sunday and into Monday. Model moisture progs indicate limited
moisture in the low to mid levels espec from H8-H7 which will keep
precip chances very low to nil with warm temperatures continuing.
Highs will reach near 80/lower 80s coast to mid 80s across the
central/srn interior each day. Low will be mainly in the 60s.

Tue-Wed...A stronger surface high pressure area off the eastern
seaboard will produce a period of slightly stronger southeast low
level flow into mid week. Some moisture return from the southeast
may be sufficient for isolated convection across the interior
Tuesday and northern zones Wednesday. Little change in the warm
weather pattern is extended through the extended period with highs
into the 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread LIFR ceilings exist across most of the east central
Florida area, save for the Treasure Coast terminals (KVRB-KSUA)
where MVFR/VFR prevails. Expect little improvement through the
middle of the morning before ceilings slowly lift into this
afternoon. Expect the slowest improvement across our northern
terminals (KDAB-KSFB-KLEE).

Another opportunity for reduced ceilings and visibility exists
Wednesday night, though the same features that led to this
morning`s low clouds and fog won`t be nearly as pronounced. Will
take a closer look at this potential in future forecast cycles.

&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...A weak front is situated near Sebastian Inlet,
and a wedge of cool air to its north will generating north winds
around 10 to 15 knots. South of the inlet, winds remain out of the
east/northeast at about 10 knots. Seas building to up to 5 feet
close to the coast north of Cape Canaveral, and up to 6 feet
offshore north of Sebastian Inlet. Elsewhere mainly 3-4 ft wave
heights. Will keep Cautionary Statements up today for near shore
Volusia coast and offshore north of Sebastian Inlet, mainly for
seas. A persistent long period swell around 10 seconds continues.

Thu...The surface ridge will settle across the waters on Thursday
with light winds in the morning and a developing sea breeze near the
east coast in the afternoon. The dominant waves will be 4-6 ft long
period swell offshore and a 3-5 ft swell near shore.

Fri-Sun...S/SW flow is expected through the period with the surface
high center well east of Florida. Should be mainly dry across the
waters with seas 2-4 ft Saturday decreasing to 2-3 ft Sunday into
Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  67  59  80  61 /  10  10   0  10
MCO  78  62  84  63 /  10  10   0   0
MLB  78  64  81  61 /  20  10   0   0
VRB  80  64  81  60 /  20  10   0   0
LEE  76  62  83  65 /  10  10   0   0
SFB  75  61  83  62 /  10  10   0  10
ORL  77  62  83  65 /  10  10   0   0
FPR  80  64  82  59 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Ulrich/Volkmer



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