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000
FXUS62 KMLB 120039
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
836 PM EDT SAT MAY 11 2013

.DISCUSSION...
A ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER OCCURRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
AREA. DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WAS  ASSISTED BY AN EAST COAST BREEZE BOUNDARY. SEVERAL LARGE HAIL
REPORTS OCCURRED FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTH ALONG THE TREASURE COAST
ALONG WITH SOME MINOR WIND DAMAGE IN CENTRAL BREVARD COUNTY.
ACTIVITY IS LARGELY TIED TO DIURNAL HEATING AND CURRENTLY MOVING
OFFSHORE WHILE WEAKENING. THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF SOME THUNDER
FROM VERO BEACH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE INCLUDING THE TREASURE COAST
THROUGH AROUND 10 PM. THE FORECAST WILL BE UPDATED TO LOWER OR
REMOVE PRECIP MENTION BY 10 PM OVER THE AREA.

SUNDAY...(PREVIOUS DISC) FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING WITH A
CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. THE GFS SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER STARTING
OFF AROUND 1.4 INCHES...WHICH IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS
AND THE RESULTANT MOS POPS TOP OUT AROUND 35 PERCENT. THIS MAY BE
DUE TO SOME SUPPRESSION BEHIND MCV FROM TONIGHTS ACTIVITY. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH HAS 40-50 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
PRIMARILY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME MIFG IN AREAS OF RAIN WETTED
GROUND AND LOW SPOTS BEFORE DAYBREAK. EXPECT DIURNAL STORMS AGAIN
SUN WITH CONDS MORE FAVORABLE FOR DVLPMT GENERALLY FM 18Z-23Z.
OTHERWISE VFR OUTSIDE SCT SHRA/TS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-SUN...SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS TONIGHT.
ON SUNDAY THE SOUTHWEST/WEST FLOW SHOULD EASE TO NEAR 10 KNOTS.
THERE IS AGAIN A CHANCE FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS...PRIMARILY IN
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

JP/DWS/AB