Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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695
FXUS62 KMLB 150826
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
326 AM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

...Widespread Dense Fog Will Be Slow to Burn Off This Morning...
...Above Normal Temperatures Continue into Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...
Current...A shallow wedge of cool and moist air left behind by
yesterday`s backdoor front and the lingering inverted trough
offshore continue to generate widespread low clouds and fog
across much of the area this morning, with visibility reduced to
less than half a mile nearly everywhere save for coastal St. Lucie
and Martin counties. Meanwhile, a small meso-low about 40 miles
northeast of the Cape is keeping winds backed out of the north to
northwest over the nearshore coastal waters of Volusia and
Brevard, leading to reduced visibility over our marine waters as
well. A Dense Fog Advisory has been hoisted through 9:00 am for
the affected zones, though there is a chance this will need to be
extended an hour or so across portions of the area.

Today/Tonight...This morning`s fog will be slow to lift given its
areal extent and coverage, especially across the north where,
like Wednesday, the sun will take until the afternoon to make its
first appearance. With time today, weak surface ridging is
expected to take the place of the remnant trough. In response,
rather light winds will shift out of the south and gain an
onshore component along the coast with the development of the
afternoon sea breeze. After a slow temperature rise this morning
due to the fog, expect a nice recovery this afternoon to around 80
most areas, save for the Volusia/N. Brevard coasts where low-mid
70s will be more common.

Though the lingering trough will have largely dissipated, mostly
clear skies and a shallow layer of low-level moisture will bring
another chance for fog early Friday morning. Expect it to be
radiational versus advective with spatial and temporal coverage
less than was witnessed tonight.

Friday...The low level ridge axis will settle across srn portions of
east central FL and Lake Okeechobee on Friday with light low level
SW/W north of the ridge axis. The mid level ridge will continue
from the central Gulf toward south FL with heights to 590 DM at 500
mbs. Moisture will be mainly confined below 850 mbs with mean RH
from 25-35 percent in the H8-H3 layer. After some morning fog skies
will be partly to mostly sunny in the afternoon with warm temps.
Highs should range from the lower 80s coastal to mid 80s interior.
Temps may reach near records levels at Vero Beach.

Sat-Sun...The mid level ridge will shift toward the NW Bahamas with
low level flow becoming ESE/SE around the surface high center well
offshore. Models continue trend of keeping the mid levels dry with
proximity of the ridge aloft. This will spell a warm weekend with dry
weather expected. Highs will continue 5-10 degrees above normal
mainly in the 80s, except slightly cooler along the Volusia coast.

Mon-Thu...The ridge aloft will strengthen just east of FL early next
week with a low level increase in the southeast flow for Monday into
Tuesday. Will keep Monday dry and with slight shower chance by
Tuesday as some low level moisture works around the Atlantic ridge.
The mid level ridge will retrograde toward S FL and flatten into mid
week. Low level winds will remain from the E/SE with above normal
temps continuing. Does not appear that appreciable moisture will be
able to make its way toward the area with the mid level ridge
nearby. Will keep a token low afternoon shower chance across nrn
sections for mid week with slightly higher moisture levels across the
nrn peninsula. Highs will range from around 80 coastal to mid 80s
well interior areas. Lows in the mid 60s interior to upper 60s
coastal.

&&

.AVIATION...
Widespread LIFR conditions, at or below most airfield minimums,
will persist at most terminals (perhaps SUA the only exception)
through 14Z. Expect low clouds to hold on the longest across our
northern and interior terminals (DAB/LEE/SFB/MCO), with the
quickest improvement from KMLB south.

VFR should be commonplace by early afternoon with the exception of
KDAB where low clouds may hold on a bit longer.


&&

.MARINE...
Today/Tonight...A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect through at
least 9:00 am this morning over the nearshore waters of Volusia
and Brevard county, where visibility below 1 mile will be common
around the Cape and points north. Otherwise, expect a persistent
east swell to keep seas elevated up to 6 feet offshore, mainly
north of Sebastian Inlet. Seas 3 to 5 feet nearshore. Winds,
though variable due to the presence of a surface trough offshore,
will average at or below 10 knots.

Friday...Winds will be southwest 5-10 knots north of the low level
ridge and then become onshore near the coast in the afternoon. Seas
around 3 ft near shore and 4-5 ft offshore.

Sat-Mon...Surface high will be offshore through the weekend with
lighter winds Saturday becoming a bit stronger onshore Sunday
afternoon into Monday from the southeast. Seas 2-4 ft.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  60  81  61 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  82  62  85  63 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  79  62  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  79  61  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  82  60  84  64 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  81  61  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  82  63  84  65 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  78  61  82  60 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Volusia County-Inland Volusia County-Northern Brevard
     County-Northern Lake County-Orange-Osceola-Seminole-
     Southern Brevard County-Southern Lake County.

AM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Flagler Beach
     to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-Brevard
     County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

&&

$$

Ulrich/Volkmer



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