Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMLB 131959
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
259 PM EST Tue Feb 13 2018

.DISCUSSION...

This Afternoon-Tonight...Sufficient moisture along the frontal
boundary combined with instability over north/central FL has
generated isolated lightning strikes just north of Lake County. Have
added a slight chance of thunder for this area for the remainder of
the afternoon with most convection diminishing by sunset. Boundary
stalls over central FL tonight, weakening winds, but maintaining
moisture over northern areas. Precip likely to diminish near
midnight, as patchy fog is expected along the Volusia coast and most
of the interior. Overnight lows well above normal in the low to mid
60s, continuing the trend of record warm minimum temps.

Wed...High pressure advances into the south, becoming the dominant
feature as the frontal boundary diminishes. Remnant moisture south
of the Cape may push showers onshore, but keeping PoPs below 20%.
Light winds and sufficient cloud cover to the north supports highs
in the low 70s, but afternoon clearing to the south provides highs
in the low 80s for the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee.

Thu-Mon...(from prev disc) Persistent ridge centered over the
western Atlc basin will build over the peninsula late in the week
and remain in place to some capacity through early next week. The
resulting stable conditions will keep the forecast drier with well
above normal temperatures during the period .

A weakening front is progged to push toward north Florida this
weekend, though it will likely lose most of its definition by the
time it reaches our area given the strength and persistence of the
ridge. The GFS brings the feature as far south as the I-4
corridor Saturday night while the ECMWF stalls it to the north of
the state. Regardless of the outcome, little change in sensible
weather is expected as both models keep PoPs below 20%. Fog will
be a nightly feature most evenings with varying degrees of coverage
based on proximity to drainages, geographic basins and inland
waterways.

&&

.AVIATION...Thru 14/18Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 14/01Z...N of KISM-KTIX...N-NE 7-11KTS...S of KISM-
KTIX E/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 14/01Z-14/04Z...N of KISM-KTIX bcmg N/NE 3-
6KTS...S of KISM-KTIX bcmg E/NE 3-6KTS. Btwn 14/12Z-14/15Z...bcmg
E/NE 7-11KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 14/00Z...N of KISM-KTIX sct MVFR shras/slgt chc
IFR tsras. Btwn 14/00Z-14/05Z...N of KISM-KMLB slgt chc MVFR shras.
Btwn 14/08-14/13Z...ptchy MVFR vsbys in BR. Aft 14/13Z...S of KISM-
KTIX slgt chc MVFR shras.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Weak frontal boundary stalls over central FL with high
pressure building in behind over the southeast. Northern waters
expect N winds at 10 kts, with seas building to 6-7 ft in offshore
zones north of Sebastian before sunrise due to northerly wind surge
and high seas off the north FL coast. Small craft should exercise
caution especially in the northern Gulf Stream waters.

Wed-Sat...The stationary front over central Florida will
dissipate over the waters on Wednesday as high pressure takes its
place and becomes centered to the east of the state through the
weekend. Onshore winds through Thursday will turn to the south
late in the week while remaining at or below 10 knots. Seas near
the coast 3-4 feet through the period. Up to 6 feet offshore
Wednesday and Thursday due to a continued east to northeast swell.
Headlines are not anticipated due to rolling swell remaining the
primary wave component.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  62  71  57  79 /  20  10  10  10
MCO  65  80  61  83 /  20  20  10   0
MLB  68  78  62  80 /  10  20  10  10
VRB  68  80  63  81 /  10  20  10  10
LEE  63  78  61  82 /  20  10  10  10
SFB  63  76  60  82 /  20  10  10  10
ORL  65  78  62  82 /  20  10  10  10
FPR  68  81  63  81 /  10  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Smith
LONG TERM....Pendergrast
AVIATION...Bragaw


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.