497
FXUS62 KMLB 271735
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
135 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

- An active weather pattern persists into next week, with a
  Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe weather today.

- Hot temperatures and increasing humidity will lead to peak heat
  indices 100 to 105 degrees. Proper precautions should be taken
  to prevent heat-related illnesses. Look before you lock!

- Moderate risk of rip currents continues at area beaches through
  the weekend.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Today-Tonight...The Atlantic ridge drifts westward towards the
Florida peninsula today, with a mid/upper level low near the
Alabama, Georgia, panhandle area. The increasing proximity of the
ridge will lead to generally light (10 mph or less) south to
southwesterly flow today. Prevailing flow will limit the inland
progression of the east coast sea breeze, keeping it pinned to the
coastal counties through the afternoon. Thus, a sea breeze
collision is forecast over the eastern half of the peninsula this
afternoon into this evening. High coverage (PoPs 60-70%) of
showers and storms is expected across the area today, aided by
PWATs ~1.8-2". The forecast area remains outlooked in a Marginal
Risk (1/5) for severe weather due to the threat for gusty winds.
DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg today thanks to slightly drier air
in the mid-levels thanks to the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) will
support the threat for a few wind gusts up to 60 mph, especially
along the sea breeze collision. Additional threats will be lightning
strikes and small hail (500 mb temperatures warming from -9C to
-8C through the day). However, convection will be slow moving
today, with steering flow 10-15 mph. Thus, locally heavy rainfall
will be possible and quick accumulations of 1-3" in a short period
of time may lead to minor flooding. A brief tornado cannot be
ruled out along any boundary collisions.

Showers and storms are forecast to begin developing by early
afternoon. Then, continuing boundary collisions are expected to
maintain development into the evening hours. Convection may linger
as late as around 10pm before diminishing. Drier conditions are
then expected for the remainder of the overnight hours. Prior to
convection, high temperatures are forecast in the lower 90s.
Increased moisture will lead to peak heat indices between 99-103
degrees.

The Weekend...The Atlantic ridge elongates through the weekend,
draping its ridge axis over central Florida. Meanwhile, the upper
level low washes out/opens into a trough, as another upper level
low moves into the Bahamas. Locally, south to southwesterly flow
will continue to prevail, causing the sea breeze collision to take
place over the eastern/central Florida peninsula. Deep moisture
(PWATs up to 2") lingers over the area, maintaining high coverage
of showers and storms each afternoon and evening. PoPs 60-70%
through the weekend, with convection continuing into the late
evening hours. 500 mb temperatures around -8C and modest lapse
rates will help to moderate the severe weather threat. However,
strong storms will remain possible, especially along boundary
collisions, with wind gusts up to 50 mph, small hail, and
lightning strikes. Slow storm motions will continue to lead to a
locally heavy rainfall threat. Should the same areas see multiple
rounds or days of heavy rainfall, those areas could progressively
increase the flooding rainfall threat. However, much of the area
remains in D0-D2 drought, so rainfall will be beneficial. Hot
temperatures continue, with highs in the lower 90s. Increasingly
humid conditions will lead to peak heat indices 100-105.

Next Week...The Atlantic ridge axis remains draped over the local
area early next week, then is forecast to drift southward through
late week. Meanwhile, the second upper level low meanders around
the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf. A summer-time pattern
will, therefore, continue, with south to southwesterly winds
supporting a continued collision over the forecast area. High
coverage of afternoon/evening showers and storms is expected to
continue into the holiday weekend, with PoPs 60-70% each day. Heat
will remain a concern due to humid conditions and heat indices
100-105 degrees. Residents and visitors should continue to use
caution if spending prolonged periods outside.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 AM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail. There will be an
increased threat for offshore moving showers and storms this
weekend into next week during the mid afternoon to evening hours,
as the Atlantic ridge axis shifts and the east coast sea breeze
becomes less dominant. High coverage of showers and storms is
forecast each day. A few storms could be strong to marginally
severe as they approach the coast, especially today. Storm
hazards include lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and heavy
downpours. South to southwest winds prevailing into next week,
remaining less than 15 kts. However, will see winds become
southeasterly along the coast each afternoon as the sea breeze
develops. Seas 1-3ft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Jun 27 2025

Convection has fired off along the coast, with TEMPOs in effect
through 20Z for reduced VIS and CIGs due to TSRA. Coverage of
showers and storms are forecast to to increase across the interior
through the remainder of this afternoon, with TEMPOs across the
interior terminals from 18 to 24Z. Activity is forecast to
diminish after 02Z across the area. Winds become light and
variable to calm overnight, picking back up out of the SW after
15Z across the interior terminals and DAB. From TIX southward, the
east coast sea breeze slowly develops, with winds becoming more
onshore from 15Z and beyond. VCTS possible along the sea breeze as
it develops, with increasing coverage forecast across the interior
once again in the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  91  73  89 /  30  70  50  70
MCO  74  93  74  90 /  50  70  50  70
MLB  75  90  74  88 /  40  60  50  70
VRB  72  91  71  89 /  30  60  40  70
LEE  74  92  75  89 /  30  70  40  70
SFB  74  93  74  91 /  40  70  50  70
ORL  75  93  75  90 /  50  70  50  70
FPR  71  90  71  88 /  30  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Tollefsen