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000
FXUS62 KMLB 120053
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
853 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

The cold front continues to move across east central Florida this
evening, with the latest surface analysis indicating it is draped
across the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County as of 850 PM.
Lingering showers out ahead of the front will continue to move
offshore, with winds becoming west-southwest behind the front. The
front is forecast to move south of the forecast area overnight,
with a dry airmass filtering in across the peninsula. Cloud
coverage will continue to diminish overnight as a result of the
drier air, and winds will gradually veer to out of the west-
northwest. Wind speeds are also forecast to slacken tonight, with
a few gusts up to 20 mph possible. Noticeably cooler and less
humid compared to last night, with overnight lows in the mid 50s
to low 60s across east central Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 851 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions are forecast across east central Florida through
tonight and into tomorrow. West to northwest winds will prevail at
all terminals, with sustained winds 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to
25 knots possible. Skies will gradually clear overnight as a cold
front continues to push across the area this evening, with a drier
air mass moving in behind the front. No rain chances forecast
tomorrow.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 851 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Poor to hazardous conditions across the local Atlantic waters are
forecast to persist overnight. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in
effect across the offshore waters for west-southwest winds 20 to 25
knots and seas 5 to 7 feet. Across the nearshore waters, small craft
will need to exercise caution for west-southwest winds 15 to 20
knots tonight.

Showers continue this evening across the adjacent Treasure Coast
waters as the cold front continues to move southeastward across the
area. This activity will continue moving offshore, with conditions
clearing out behind the front.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 435 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Friday... Dry and cooler air will return Friday behind a post
frontal trough and as high pressure builds over the Deep South.
Winds are expected to veer west- northwest into Friday at 8-14kts
and briefly veer onshore along the coast south of Cape Canaveral
into the afternoon Friday. Afternoon highs are forecast to reach
the upper 70s to low 80s under sunny skies.

...Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

Fri Night-Sun Night...An upper level trough over the Great Lakes
region will shift east and northward into the Northeast US by
Saturday, moving out into the Atlantic off the Canadian coast by
Sunday. A dry post-frontal trough will continue to move through the
local area Friday evening. Surface high pressure will build eastward
over the Deep south on Saturday, shifting offshore the Florida
eastern coast on Sunday. Locally, winds will decrease and veer
onshore briefly along the coast as the dry post-frontal trough
pushes through. Winds will then veer northeast on Saturday as the
high pressure builds in, with speeds around 10-15 mph and gusts of
20 to 25mph possible into the afternoon, before winds veer east to
southeast on Sunday as the high pressure shifts eastward just off
the eastern Florida coast. Sunny skies and dry conditions will
prevail with temperatures on a slight warming trend through the
weekend. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 70s east of I-
95 and upper 70s to low 80s west of I-95 on Saturday, and upper 70s
to around 80F east of I-95 and low to mid 80s west of I-95 on
Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s Friday and
Saturday nights, and upper 50s to low 60s east of I-95, and low to
mid 50s west of I-95 on Sunday night.

Mon-Thu...Mid and upper level ridge will build across the GOMEX and
over Florida peninsula through mid week, but will get beat back a
bit on Thu as the southern end of a mid-level trough traverses the
Deep South. Surface high pressure in the western Atlantic waters
will build westward over the Florida peninsula and into the GOMEX
and Deep South through midweek. Locally, winds will be east to
southeast at 10-15mph each afternoon with gusts up to 20 mph
possible. Dry conditions will prevail through mid week, with no
mentionable rain chances through the period. Sunny skies will
continue to dominate with temperatures well above normal for this
time of year. Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 80s east of
I-95 and mid to upper 80s west of I-95 each afternoon, with low 90s
possible in the far western interior on Wednesday/Thursday.
Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper 50s to low 60s on Monday
night, and low to mid 60s on Tuesday-Thursday nights.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 435 PM EDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...Previous Extended Fire Weather Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sat-Sun...Fire sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are
forecast into the weekend. Drier air will filter across east central
Florida behind a cold front on Friday. West to northwest winds at 8-
12 KT Friday will veer north to northeast on Saturday around 10 KT
before becoming east to southeast on Sunday with speeds at 8-12 KT
once again, all with higher gusts expected. On Saturday, minimum RH
values are expected to fall into the mid 20s to low 30s west of I-95
and the mid 30s to low 40s along the coast. Min RH values are then
forecast to reach upper 20s to low 30s west of I-95, and upper 30s
to low 40s east of I-95 on Sunday. There is a Moderate Risk for
Significant Fire Potential across all the east central Florida
Saturday and Sunday.

Mon-Wed...Fire sensitive weather conditions are forecast to continue
through mid-week. East to southeast winds will remain in place
through the time period, with speeds generally 10-15 KT and
occasional higher gusts. Minimum RH values are forecast to fall into
the low to upper 30s west of I-95, and low to mid 40s east of I-95
on Monday, and mid 30s to low 40s east of I-95, and generally in the
mid to upper 40s to low 50s east of I-95 on Tuesday and Wednesday.
There is a Moderate Risk for Significant Fire Potential across all
the east central Florida on Monday, and north of the Treasure Coast
on Tuesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  58  80  55  75 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  60  80  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  60  82  57  76 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  60  83  55  78 /  20   0   0   0
LEE  58  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  59  80  55  79 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  60  80  57  80 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  60  82  54  77 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Tollefsen
LONG TERM...Weitlich
AVIATION...Tollefsen