Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 300824
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
324 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS OOZED INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY YESTERDAY, AND
EARLY THIS MORNING THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO WESTERN MISSOURI.  WHILE THE AMS IS A BIT
COOLER...THE MOST NOTICABLE CHANGE HAS BEEN IN DEWPOINTS...WHICH
HAVE DROPPED 10 TO 15 DEGREES FROM THEIR STEAMY LEVELS THIS TIME
YESTERDAY MORNING.

THE HIGH WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ON OUR WEATHER TODAY, WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND RATHER COMFORTABLE LEVELS OF HUMIDITY FOR LATE JULY.
HIGHS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...PRIMARILY IN THE 85 TO 90
DEGREE RANGE.

TRUETT

.LONG TERM:  (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

THE SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION TODAY WILL ALREADY BE S OF
THE AREA BY MID-DAY FRI. THIS WILL RETURN THE REGION TO SWLY FLOW
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF THE NEXT CDFNT. HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WARMER FRI
OVER TEMPS FOR TODAY BECAUSE OF THIS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FNT IS RATHER WEAK WITH NWLY 850MB FLOW AHEAD OF THE FNT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION WITH THIS FNT.
HOWEVER, WITH WARM TEMPS AND DEWPOINT POOLING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE
FNT, A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE. PRECIP CHANCES ARE BETTER WITH THE
NEXT CDFNT SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MDLS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THRU SAT, DIFFERENCES
GREATLY INCREASE IN THE EXTD. HAVE THEREFORE KEPT POPS LOWER DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY. KEPT TEMPS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN A
COMPROMISE AMONG MDL GUIDANCE.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

COLD FRONT HAS M0VED THROUGH THE AREA WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING
IN FROM THE NORTHERN ROCIKES TO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S WILL BE A WELCOME CHANGE. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND AND VFR CONDITIONS.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL: HIGH PRESSURE MOVING WITH DRIER AIR. LIGHT
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND THROUGH THURSDAY. VFR.

JPK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     90  69  91  69 /   0   0  10  20
QUINCY          88  65  89  64 /   0   0  20  20
COLUMBIA        89  66  90  66 /   5   0  10  20
JEFFERSON CITY  90  66  91  67 /   5   0  10  20
SALEM           88  66  89  66 /   0   0  10  20
FARMINGTON      87  63  89  67 /   5   0   5  10

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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