000
FXUS63 KTOP 310449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

Shortwave trough and associated area of showers and embedded
thunderstorms will generally remain south of the county warning area
tonight...although a few light showers or sprinkles will remain
possible this evening across Lyon...Coffey and Anderson counties.

Drier air and subsidence to the north will keep the remainder of the
cwa dry with a gradual decrease in clouds north to south. Very dry
air in the 700-400mb layer will warrant a dry forecast on through
the day Thursday. Lows tonight will be warmest in the Burlington and
Garnett areas where clouds will be slower to clear and hold readings
to the lower 60s. The remainder of the cwa will generally cool into
the upper 50s to near 60.

Mostly sunny skies...lower humidity levels and light east to
northeast winds will make way for a pleasant day weatherwise across
the area. Highs in the middle 80s will be the rule.

$$

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 336 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

The Thursday night through Saturday a few weak waves move southeast
in the northwest flow aloft. NAM continues to be most aggressive
with the QPF, while the GEM, ECMWF and GFS remain relatively dry.
Thursday night the upper forcing is northeast of the cwa on the
majority of the models keep the cwa dry and will continue with a dry
forecast. Northwest upper flow will continue through the weekend as
upper trough extends from Hudson Bay area south into the Ohio
Valley. Heights rise by the end of the weekend as the upper low
moves off to the northeast and a ridge builds into central and
eastern Kansas.

Temperatures will continue warm each day finally reaching normals,
around 90 for highs, by Monday. The warmup will be short lived as
GFS and ECMWF show a upper trough moving southeast across the Plains
by mid week. The upper trough will push a A cold front southeast
into northern Kansas by Wednesday morning. Precipitation chances
also increase ahead of these features. Model consensus suggests a 30
to 40 chance of precipitation for next Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

VFR generally expected for TAF sites, will watch for possible BR
developing near MHK where they had more rain. Winds slowly become
light east southeast Thursday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...67