Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 222027
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
227 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Little to no sensible weather and above normal temperatures are
forecast tonight and during Thanksgiving day.

An amplified upper level pattern over the western and central
CONUS will gradually flatten over the course of the period. This
will result in the weakening of a 90 kt jet corridor currently
transporting moisture/high cirrus southeastward across the
region. Therefore, expect clearer skies on Thursday. Surface high
pressure will continue to slide east of the region, with a
decaying boundary drifting southward across NE Kansas tonight.
Return flow will quickly set in for the day on Thursday, resulting
in high temperatures climbing into the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Benign weather pattern across northeast Kansas in the extended
period, characterized by a series of windy and dry afternoons
followed by a few cold fronts to keep temperatures in check with
seasonal norms. The first area of focus is on Friday with
increasing southerly winds as a shortwave trough pushes a cold
front through the central plains, reaching north central areas in
the late afternoon. Strong southerly winds were increased based on
model trends between 15 and 20 mph sustained as 850 mb temps
around 17C translate down to the sfc. Forecast highs are currently
in the lower 70s. See fire weather discussion below with elevated
fire danger being possible Friday afternoon.

Forecast remains mild for the weekend as a slightly modified
airmass settles in behind the front with highs Saturday and Sunday
residing in the lower 60s with light winds. Monday could be
another warm and windy afternoon ahead of the next incoming cold
front with highs in the upper 60s. Both the GFS and ECMWF
ensembles are depicting a stronger shortwave trough that impacts
much of the western CONUS before sweeping eastward with a stronger
cold front on Tuesday. Uncertainty lies in precip chances with
the slower progression from the ECMWF allowing adequate moisture
to return to the area. For the time being, will keep a dry
forecast until better consistency develops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1122 AM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the period with light
southerly winds today switching to the northwest Thursday morning.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM CST Wed Nov 22 2017

Elevated fire danger is possible Friday afternoon with southerly
winds increasing ahead of a frontal boundary entering north central
Kansas by late afternoon. Wind speeds are trending stronger between
15 and 20 mph sustained with gusts in excess of 30 mph. RH values
are still in question with some variances in the extent of dry air
mixing down. Regardless, minimum RH values in the lower 30s combined
with the strong winds result in very high fire danger.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Skow
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Skow
FIRE WEATHER...Prieto



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