142
FXUS63 KTOP 120527
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered storms develop (20-50%) this afternoon and evening,
  mainly across east-central Kansas. A few severe storms are
  possible with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard.

- Relatively cooler this weekend with building heat again to start
  the new work week.

- Low chances for showers/storms this weekend. Next best chance
  (30-40%) for rain comes Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 205 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a shortwave over eastern
Nebraska and western Iowa with another perturbation across the
Dakotas. The surface low has progressed into far northwest Missouri
with the attendant cold front stretching from near Hiawatha
southwest towards Wichita. CIN is eroding ahead of the front in an
airmass featuring 3000-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE and the cumulus field
along the front is becoming a bit more organized. With the better
upper-level forcing displaced to the north, convergence along the
front will be the main instigator of convection this afternoon and
evening. Surface convergence is overall weak across the forecast
area, but does increase slightly as the surface front moves into
east-central Kansas later this afternoon into the evening. Overall,
the forecast has remains on track with scattered storms expected to
develop between 2-5 PM, push southeast through the afternoon/evening,
and exit the area before midnight. Weak shear will largely
limit the intensity of storms, but inverted-V soundings and
DCAPE of 1000-1300 J/kg will support strong to damaging wind
gusts with the strongest storms. PWATs of 1.6-1.8" favor brief
heavy rainfall with any storms as well, but the flooding risk is
low.

The Northern Plains shortwave will push a secondary cold
front into the area overnight. Showers and storms along this
boundary are expected to largely dissipate as they approach the
area, but they could persist long enough to bring some rain to north
central Kansas. Cooler air works into the region for Saturday as
temperatures top out in the mid to upper 80s under a mix of clouds
and sun. A piece of energy across the Southern Plains lifts back
north Saturday afternoon and evening and could spark some showers
and storms south of Interstate 70. Severe weather is not expected,
but any storms that do impact the area could produce gusty winds and
brief heavy rainfall.

The mid-level pattern becomes disorganized next week with the mid-
level ridge trying to build over the Plains with waves of energy
floating around the region as well. Dry conditions are favored
Sunday into Monday, but can`t rule out a pop-up shower or storm in
an uncapped summer airmass. A more organized shortwave moves through
Tuesday into Wednesday ahead of a stronger wave that pushes a cold
front towards the area Wednesday into Thursday. Models differ in
timing of the front, but the passage of the boundary will bring the
next best chances for precipitation along with some cooler air with
highs in the 80s possible late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Main uncertainty is coverage of MVFR ceilings for a few
hours this morning. Highest confidence is east of KTOP/KFOE, so will
only go with a prevailing scattered group for now. Winds stay below
10 kts through the period, generally from the north.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Reese