000
FXUS63 KTOP 161727
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

A clear and cool night over northeast Kansas tonight as surface high
pressure center moves slowly southward into Oklahoma. Temperatures
still anticipated to fall into the middle 30s for many spots and
will keep the frost advisory into the morning hours. Upper
northwesterly flow sends a ripple of energy toward the state this
afternoon, and will aid in the reestablishment of the lee surface
trof across the high plains and a boost in wind speeds with some low
end gusts in our western counties from the southwest by late in the
day. Highs should reach near 70F under mostly clear skies.  The
southerly winds continue into the overnight hours on Monday and lows
should hold in the 40s to near 50.  Lower relative humidities and
dry vegetation today will make for an uptick in fire danger, but
is expected to be kept down by lower wind speeds.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

Northwest flow aloft continues through late week, which will keep
the weather quiet and temperatures seasonable. Next weekend an
elongated neutrally tilted mid-level trough passes over the Rockies
and eventually over the central US. As a result a cold front
approaches the area and brings the chances for precipitation. The
gulf moisture will begin to stream northward on Friday ahead of the
front. The models are showing signs of stronger dynamics associated
with this system. Therefore dew points could potentially reach
the mid 60s with the help of a strong low level jet over the
plains Friday night. There is a chance warm advection showers and
storms develop Friday evening given the isentropic lift and
moisture advertised by the GFS. The EC is less aggressive with the
moisture return therefore it is dry. Decided to leave the
forecast with very small pops, but could see them increasing if
this trend continues. The frontal passage looks to be sometime on
Saturday. As of now the steep mid-level lapse rates overspread
surface dew points in the 60s so some instability looks possible.
The shortwave energy located on the southern extent of the trough
axis seems to keep the upper level ridge over the southeast US
causing the deep layer shear to increase over the frontal zone.
Certainly do not want to jump to any conclusions based on this
recent model trend, but there could be a potential for strong
storms associated with the frontal passage next weekend. Still
plenty of time to watch the models fine tune the evolution of
this system since they continue to slightly change each run.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions will continue. Winds will be strong enough to
prevent any BR formation tonight, with a strong enough inversion
and low level jet for concern for low level wind shear
development. Will go ahead with a mention, with winds not terribly
fast but not far off the ground.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...65