Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 251717
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1217 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

Heavy rain has come to an end across the area, with scattered
showers and a few rumbles of thunder remaining.  Front has moved
into northern Republic county and will sweep across the forecast
area through the day today.  Rain comes to an end NW to SE with much
of the area dry by the noon hour, and areas along and southeast of
I35 clearing up by evening.  Have some low QPF amounts but not
expecting additional issues given any appreciable rain likely to
fall southeast of the flooded areas from yesterday.  River flooding
continues this morning into Sunday for some locations, see flood
products for details.  Will need to watch for fog development toward
early Monday given recent rainfall, but dewpoints continue to fall
with the incoming airmass and have kept it out at this time.  Highs
in the upper 60s to low 70s today fall to overnight lows in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

On Monday an upper level low pressure will be progressing over the
Great Lakes region resulting in northwest flow aloft. Surface high
pressure will migrate southward through the plains before ending up
in western TX. Return flow will develop in the wake of the high, but
the gulf will remain cut off. Therefore the relatively cool dry air
will stay in place. The upper level low is forecasted to dig over
the OH river valley, which will send another high pressure from
Canada as a shortwave swings around the backside of the main upper
low. Later in the week southwest flow aloft develops, which allows
weak shortwaves to lift out of the southwest US. This will bring a
slight chance for showers and storms Friday into Sunday mainly
across central KS at this point. High temperature will remain in the
70s for a majority of the extended. While low temperatures start out
in the upper 40s on Tuesday and moderate into the 50s by the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR is expected throughout the period. The cold front has pushed
through northeast Kansas bringing rain to an end. Winds will
generally stay from the northwest.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Heller



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