000
FXUS63 KTOP 112026
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
326 PM CDT Tue Mar 11 2014

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tonight)
Issued at 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Late this afternoon, surface boundary bisects the CWA stretching
just west of Wichita to the northeast to Topeka and further east
north of KMCI.  Several convergence zones ahead this boundary, with
strongest axis stretching along the I-35/335 corridor. Will need to
watch for potential development of convection along this corridor
through 6pm as primary cold front moves east. Instability along and
head of this front remains meager, with RAP analysis only indicating
CAPE values 100-300 J/KG. If storms would happen to develop, the
main impact would be small hail with the longevity of convection
in the CWA minimal.

The other concern heading into the overnight hours will be strong
gradient winds.  We`re already seeing advisory level winds in the
far NW portion of the CWA at this hour, and as the surface boundary
settles southeast, these strong gradient winds will swing through
the CWA.  By midnight, sfc pressure gradient should begin to weaken
as the developing sfc low moves through the MO bootheel.

The shortwave responsible for these strong winds and increasing
precipitation chances is just beginning to enter the Western Plains
this afternoon.  A linear band of mid-level frontogenesis across
NE/IA  slopes back to western KS at 3pm. Short term model guidance
continues to suggest that this band will slowly move southeast this
evening.  While the western flank of the mid-level lift should hold
together the further southeast it tracks, the eastern areas of
precip across NE/IA will dissipate as a new baroclinic zone is
reestablished further south across eastern KS and northern
Missouri.  Precipitation should blossom shortly after 00Z along the
eastern edges of the CWA. Given the position of the shortwave and
how the wave pivots eastward, the majority of the heavy
precipitation should take place just east of the CWA.  Latest
hopWRF, HRRR, RAP support the idea of a brief window of 3-5 hrs of a
rain/snow mixture bisecting the CWA with most of the activity
diminishing or moving east by 1am. Accumulations should remain light
given the warm grounds, but could see up to an inch of snow in some
spots where efficient rates can overtake boundary layer temps.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

After the past two days, Wednesday will feel
chilly with temperatures rebounding into the upper 40s to lower
50s.  Will watch for an increase in low-level clouds late morning,
as a secondary wave rotates southward into the area. A quick rebound
above normal is expected by Thursday and Friday ahead of yet another
shortwave pivoting through the southern Rockies. Temperatures on
Thursday will rebound into the 60s, with a front dropping southward
on Friday lowering readings a few degrees.

Saturday-Monday: The aforementioned shortwave should pass far enough
to the south Friday night to have minimal impact on the CWA leaving
conditions pleasant for Saturday.  A slightly more amplified flow
pattern will drop colder air southward again on Sunday, but this
cooldown should last no longer than a day as increasing
southwesterly flow ushers above normal temperatures into the region
to begin next week. Have bumped up temperatures for Monday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 11 2014

Frontal boundary remains just northwest of the Manhattan terminal
this afternoon arching NE along the KS/NE state line. This
boundary will continue to sink southeast and reach the Topeka area
towards 22z. Winds will increase immediately behind this front
with sustained winds between 25-30 knots an occasional gusts
approaching 40 knots.

There appears to be two areas of precipitation that will move
through the region later this afternoon and tonight. Initial area
of precipitation dropping southeast of out SW Nebraska associated
with PV anomaly will gradually begin to merge with an intense
area of frontogenesis focused just east of the CWA. Have timed
initial development of rain around 00z, with a quick transition to
rain/snow or even completely to snow by 03z. The progressive
nature of the wave should force precipitation and associated MVFR to
IFR ceilings/VIS through the terminals by 06z. After that point,
we`ll see a gradual increase in ceilings, but winds will remain
breezy through the night.

 &&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM CDT Wednesday FOR
KSZ011-012-022>024-026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-020-
021-034-035.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY until 1 AM CDT Wednesday FOR KSZ011-012-022>024-
026-036>040-054>056-058-059.

WIND ADVISORY until 10 PM CDT this evening FOR KSZ008>010-020-
021-034-035.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUX
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...DUX