Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 241725

National Weather Service Topeka KS
1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

The quiet weather continues for today and tonight.  Surface high
pressure to the north noses into northeast Kansas, gradually moving
east throughout the day.  Clear skies and light northeast winds,
which will gradually shift from the southeast by tonight, will be
the main features of the day. Highs today will be cooler than
yesterday thanks to the cooler flow from the north, with
temperatures topping out in the upper 60s and low 70s.  Some areas
near the Nebraska boarder may only warm into the middle 60s.  Clouds
will begin to move in from the west late tonight into early morning
ahead of an approaching system.  Diurnal cooling will still allow
lows to drop into the upper 40s to the north and near mid 50s
towards central and east central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 258 AM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Tuesday and Tuesday night, An upper trough embedded within the
southern branch of the jet stream will lift northeast across the
southwestern US into the central plains Tuesday night. Ahead of the
upper trough southerly low-level flow will advect deeper gulf
moisture northward across eastern KS through the day on Tuesday. The
stronger WAA/isentropic lift ahead of the return flow will be across
eastern NE into IA for early morning elevated showers and
thunderstorms. Most of the CWA will see partly cloudy skies through
the day Tuesday with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s as
southerly winds of 15 to 25 MPH with higher gusts help to warm
temperatures above normal. A surface front will push southeast into
south central NE and west central KS during the afternoon hours.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the surface
front across west central KS as stronger ascent shifts east ahead of
the H5 trough and surface convergence provides enough lift for
thunderstorm development. The environment will be favorable for
strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms to develop along the front
across west central KS and south central NE during the afternoon
hours. MLCAPE is progged to be 1500-2000 J/KG across north central
KS with the 0-6 KM vertical windshear increasing to near 30 KTS. A
few of the stronger thunderstorms may move into the western counties
of the CWA during the evening hours before the instability decreases
near sunset. As the line of scattered showers and thunderstorms
shift east across the CWA they may congeal into a solid line of
showers and thunderstorms. MUCAPES may drop below 1,000 J/KG after
3Z as the line of storms pushes east across the CWA ahead of the
surface front. I don`t think any of the storms will be strong as
they push east across northeast and east central KS through the
night. Most areas could see rainfall totals of 0.1 to 0.25 inches.
If there are stronger thunderstorms across north central KS, then
the rainfall may be heavier. The surface front will push southeast
across the CWA through the night.

Wednesday, there could be a few post frontal showers in the morning
hours across east central KS. The upper trough will shift eastward
into MO and skies will clear from west to east across the CWA during
the late morning into the afternoon hours. The airmass behind the
front will only be slightly cooler and highs will reach the lower to
mid 70s.

Wednesday night through Friday, the warm weather will continue
through the end of the work week as an upper level ridge across the
southwest US moves east into the plains. Highs Thursday will reach
the mid 70s with upper 70s to lower 80s expected on Friday.

Friday night through Monday, We will see a slight cool down as the
upper ridge retrogrades westward and a series of upper level troughs
dig southeast across the northern plains into the Great Lakes States
and OH river valley. This will cause a cold front move southeast
across the CWA Friday night. A surface ridge of high pressure will
build southward across the eastern plains. Highs Saturday will be in
the lower 70s with mid to upper 60s on Sunday. The upper ridge will
begin to shift east across the plains next week and we will see a
warming trend into next week. Halloween looks mild with highs in the
lower to mid 70s with temperatures only slowly fall into the 60s
during the evening hours. The Halloween forecast is a 9 day forecast
and may change in the next several runs.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Oct 24 2016

VFR conditions anticipated. Southerly winds around 25kt
developing around 3000FT AGL will bring some increase in moisture
and perhaps some stratus at times after 04Z, but any cigs should
be brief and likely above limiting levels. This increase in wind
should still be gradual enough to keep wind shear concerns low.




LONG TERM...Gargan
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