Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 250239
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
939 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 939 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

The HRRR has been trending south with any elevated convection that
forms late this evening. This seems to fit in with the latest obs
of the frontal boundary pushing into southern KS. Based on the
850MB profiler data, it appears the elevated boundary looks to be
south of I-70 while the surface front is down around Wichita and
into west central MO. So with current obs showing the boundary
further south and several runs of the HRRR trending south, have
updated the forecast to lower POPs across the northern counties.
There still appears to be a chance for elevated storms overnight,
but the better chances may be along and south of I-35. Have also
trended temps cooler a little faster than the previous forecast
had. If skies where to remain clear overnight, which appears
unlikely given the cirrus shield over western KS, lows Mon morning
could be a few degrees cooler as well. Will wait to see more
guidance before adjusting the MinT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

Scattered showers and mostly cloudy skies were alleviating the heat
somewhat this afternoon as a cool front hovered from central KS,
through Concordia and St. Joseph Missouri. Areas within the cloud
cover have remained in the low 90s while along and south Interstate
70, highs up to the middle 90s combined with mid 70s dewpoints have
resulted in heat indices from 100 to 110. Therefore will leave the
heat advisory as is through 8 PM this evening. Remnant showers
towards the Nebraska border have generated weak outflow boundaries
that may trigger a few thunderstorms late this afternoon-early
evening over far northeast and east central Kansas. Several previous
runs of the high resolution models support this trend, especially
given the weak convergence along the boundary. Steep low level lapse
rates underneath 2000+ J/KG of CAPE may develop a few stronger
storms. Effective shear near 30 kts would be enough to sustain these
updrafts, producing strong gusty winds. Other hazardous impacts with
these storms are low at this time. Incoming weak wave from the high
plains of Colorado may develop additional widespread precip across
areas generally south of Interstate 70 overnight. Forcing is not
particularly strong while the LLJ is not prevalent so confidence is
only as high as 40 percent with the uncertainty of coverage. Severe
weather is not expected with this activity.

Precip gradually comes to an end north to south Monday afternoon as
high pressure builds into the area. With easterly winds around 10
mph and clearing skies, temps are not hot in the upper 80s. Heat
indices stay below 100 degrees in the 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

On Monday night return flow will be well established across the
region as a surface high pressure slides through the Midwest. A
strengthening low level jet will center over western KS, and will be
the focus for isentropic lift. A few elevated showers and storms may
clip portions of central and southeast KS during the overnight. On
Tuesday the stalled frontal boundary over southern MO may be the
focus additional development especially over southeast KS. Within
the northwest flow aloft weak shortwaves look to track across the
northern plains. On Tuesday night one may be responsible for a storm
complex that moves through NE and possibly northern KS. Also, the
models are hinting at weak isentropic lift out ahead of the wave and
the possible complex. This lift may support showers and storms across
eastern KS as well although coverage does not appear to be
widespread. On Wednesday that shortwave appears to track over the
midwest and extend back over northeast KS. This may provide enough
lift for additional development especially in the evening when a
cold front approaches from the north. More shortwaves are forecasted
to track over the region within the northwest flow aloft. Since
these tracks are difficult to forecast and mesoscale features are
important factors as well it is hard to pin down the details at this
point. Therefore rain chances will continue through next weekend. As
of now we are not expecting any widespread flooding. Temperatures
will be much closer to normal through the extended with highs around
90 and lows around 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 939 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

based on changes to the forecast mentioned above, have removed the
mention of TS from MHK and TOP. FOE may still be close enough to
the elevated storms that have left a mention there but narrowed the
window for storms. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Wolters
SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Wolters



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