Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 252330
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
630 PM CDT Sat Oct 25 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Water vapor imagery at 1830Z shows the axis of an upper level ridge
centered over the county warning area (cwa). At the surface a
weak frontal boundary was slowly edging southward across the east
central counties. This boundary will become stationary to the south
later this afternoon/evening before lifting back northward overnight
and Sunday as a warm front. As it does...deeper moisture pooled
along and south of the front will surge north and northwestward with
the front through Sunday. This should result in the development of
stratus and fog across much of the central and northern portions of
the cwa after midnight...lifting northward and out of the cwa by
noon Sunday with sunny skies and gusty southerly winds. This will
allow for an axis of unseasonably warm air to expand northeastward
across the cwa resulting in highs in the low to middle 80s which is
about 15 to 20 degrees above normal for late October.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 340 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Upper trough will move across the Rockies and into the Plains on
Monday sweeping a cold front across central and much of northeast
Kansas during the afternoon hours. Soundings still show a rather
stout EML for much of the day capping off surface based convection.
Still expect the front to move through dry across north central
Kansas and parts of northeast Kansas. Upper trough moves out across
the Plains Monday night and exits early Tuesday morning. Post
frontal showers are possible and soundings still show some elevated
instability so will keep a mention of isolated thunderstorms for
northeast and east central Kansas Monday night. Cooler and drier air
will move in from the northeast Tuesday with more seasonal
temperatures expected in the low to mid 60s.

For the rest of the week northwest flow will continue across the
Plains. An upper level shortwave trough will move southeast across
the Plains Wednesday night and Thursday. Moisture is rather meager
and is more favorable for precipitation to the east and southeast of
the forecast area of eastern Kansas. In the wake of Thursdays trough
cool high pressure will build south into Kansas along with below
normal temperatures in the 50s for Friday and Saturday with lows
falling into the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFs through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 626 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

Have moderate confidence in substantial aviation impacts through
morning. Expect fog and/or low ceilings to develop after 05Z, and
likely closer to 07Z. There is potential for vis to fall below
1/2SM with timing of the best chance for this between 09Z and 14Z.
At the same time, have some potential for the lowest cig/vis
conditions to develop near or just north of TAF sites and improve
as a front approaches TAF sites by morning. Most likely forecast
is for IFR or worse conditions for several hours through 15Z.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...63
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch






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