Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 090449
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1149 PM CDT Tue Jul 8 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

A quiet and stable airmass is in place for this evening as surface
high pressure shifts overhead into northeast Kansas. Northwest winds
become light with clear skies and decent radiational cooling near
12Z. Unseasonably cool lows can be expected in the lower 60s. May
see some patchy fog in low lying areas where temperatures in the 50s
are possible, however probability of widespread dense fog is low as
crossover temps this afternoon range in the mid to upper 50s.

On Wednesday, high pressure pushes eastward bringing southerly flow
back to the area. Mid level clouds increase across northern KS as  a
weak shortwave trough embedded within the northwest flow tracks
southeast over the high plains in the afternoon hours. A narrow axis
of MUCAPE around 500 J/KG over north central KS with the incoming
wave may bring scattered showers and thunderstorms over north
central areas by late afternoon. Added a slight chance as guidance
is a bit faster on the timing of the wave. Chances for precip
increase after 00Z. Highs tomorrow are closer to normal for this
time of year in the mid and upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

Brought temperatures down a bit for Thursday with convection setting
up over the return flow over Central Kansas, advancing eastward with
the veering low level jet, then potentially getting another boost
from a shortwave in the northwest flow for the daytime hours.  Lows
in the lower 60s should rise near the lower to middle 80s. For
Friday, the mid level cap starts to increase in strength and focus
for storms shifts toward the north, although not as far as previous
forecasts, and have some precip chances across this area for early
Friday.  Flow becomes more zonal for Saturday and boundary remains
near the KS/NE border, and will keep slight chances north of the
interstate for Saturday.  As area stays in the warm sector, highs
Friday and Saturday rise back into the 90s with lows in the 70s.

Solutions in the extended for Sunday through Tuesday are taking a
shift toward cooler, as the large scale upper low continues to
reinforce its southerly push across the northern high plains.
Sunday would likely be warmest of these three days before front gets
shifted southward,  with highs then for Monday and Tuesday on a
cooling trend.  Precipitation chances also shift southward through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1148 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

For the 06z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Winds will be light overnight as surface high pressure tracks toward
the area. Northwesterly winds this evening will shift to the south
and southeast for today and tonight. There is a chance for some
scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop near the TAF sites
late this evening, however the confidence in timing and location is
too low to warrant a mention in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bowen
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...Hennecke





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