Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 280440
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1140 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Upper shortwave trough coming off the highs plains this afternoon
with a secondary departing trough tracking east over the Midwest.
Sfc boundary is currently trailing over south central KS while an
outflow boundary stretched through north central Kansas. Cloud cover
has centered over this boundary with light winds and weak advection
leading to a gradual warmup to near 90 degrees for most of the area.

For tonight, convergence along the boundary remains fairly weak with
the area of mid level forcing to our north not having an impact on
organized convection forming during the afternoon. After 00z
tonight, short and mid term guidance tries to develop an isolated
shower or thunderstorm over north central KS. Due to the low
coverage in occurrence and weak forcing, have only slight chances
mentioned through midnight. If any storm were to develop, steep low
level lapse rates may result in a few strong wind gusts.Overnight,
upslope flow increases over the high plains, developing scattered
showers and storms to our north and west. Steering winds from north
to south should direct much of the precipitation towards
central/western KS, with a slight possibility for these showers to
impact the CWA through Thursday morning.

Mostly cloudy skies to start the day on Thursday as any residual
precipitation exits southward. Temporary subsidence behind the
departing upper trough should alleviate cloud cover through the day
with overall cooler temperatures and weak northerly winds. Highs will
mostly be in the upper 80s to the north and near 90 degrees south of
Interstate 70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

In the medium range from Thursday night through Saturday...in a
larger sense, the 12z models are similar with respect to the
overall pattern. Continued northwest flow aloft with several
shortwaves moving through the flow. At the surface, a frontal
boundary will remain over the Central Plains with it`s exact
location determined by mesoscale features including MCS`s.

Thunderstorms which develop in the upslope region of the high
plains should go upscale into a MCS Thursday evening. The MCS
should develop and move into the instability axis over southern KS
and OK. The 12z models keep the the most intense part of the MCS
SW of NE KS Thursday night, but our SW counties have a decent
chance of thunderstorms. The storms changes should linger into
Friday.

There should be additional thunderstorm development Friday
afternoon and Saturday afternoon across the central plains near
the boundary. The best chance for NE KS should be Saturday night
based on the latest guidance. However, confidence is low in the
placement of the storms vs the location of the low-level
boundaries.

Temperatures should remain a little below normal for late July
for NE KS since we will be north of the boundary much of the time.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...

A stout upper level ridge will be in place across the Rockies for
the beginning of the period. Northwest flow will focus across the
outlook area Saturday night through Sunday night. Isentropic lift
will increase across the Central Plains in the 310-315K theta layer
next weekend. This coupled with a weak 500MB shortwave should result
in shower and thunderstorm activity across much of the area Saturday
night and Sunday morning. The remainder of the period looks dry as
ridge axis migrates east, setting up over the Central Plains.
Currently, high temperatures look to remain in the middle to upper
90s Monday through Wednesday. With dew points expected to be in the
upper 60s to lower 70s, heat index values soar into the 100s Monday
through Wednesday.

 &&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 633 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Little change from previous forecast.  Have continued to leave out
the mention of TSRA as confidence is still low that coverage of
storms will impact any terminals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

Little change to the previous forecast as confidence in location of
any overnight storms is low.  Winds will be light through the
period. After 00Z, chances for storms mainly near MHK begin;
however, have left it out of this TAF issuance until better
certainty in timing and location is known.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Prieto
LONG TERM...Baerg/Johnson
AVIATION...Heller


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