Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 301140
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
640 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER RIDGE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN US
WITH A DOWNSTREAM LONGER WAVE-LENGTH UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL US.

NORTHWEST FLOW AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SERIES OF MINOR
H5 TROUGHS ROUNDING THE H5 RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

TODAY, A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS EASTERN CO AND
EASTERN NM. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE NE BORDER. 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM TO AROUND 27
DEGREES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THERE WILL BE A GRADIENT
IN 850MB TEMPS ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHERE 850MB
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 5 DEGREE COOLER ALONG THE MO BORDER. GIVEN DEEP
MIXING, TO NEAR 820MB ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHERE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL ONLY SEE HIGHS AROUND 90 WITH WINDS BACKING
MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DEEPER MIXING
WILL ALLOW DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT INTO THE LOWER TO MID
60S...THEREFORE THE APPARENT TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT THE SAME AS
THE AIR TEMPERATURES.

A MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS WESTERN NE THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR ENOUGH ASCENT WHEN
COMBINED WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE ACROSS CENTRAL NE.

TONIGHT...THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NE MAY MOVE INTO THE THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT COMBINED
WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE MINOR H5 TROUGH WILL OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN
NE AND WESTERN MO. MOST OF THE AREA MAY STAY RAIN FREE TONIGHT.  IF
A MESOSCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DEVELOPS AND PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT THEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CHANCE MAY
INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ONLY ONE MESOSCALE MODEL...THE NMM
VERSION OF THE WRF...SHOWS THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION. SO FOR NOW I
WILL ONLY PLACE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST COUNTIES OF
THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS WESTERN MO OR EASTERN
KS ON WEDS. THE MORNING STORMS COULD PRODUCE A SHALLOW OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT COULD END UP BEING THE FOCUS FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT
DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST OR MORE LIKELY WE WOULD SEE A
SCENARIO OF ANOTHER ROUND OF NOCTURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ON
THE NOSE OF THE LLJ TARGETED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OR SOUTHEAST KS
INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MO WEDS NIGHT INTO EARLY THU. WILL KEEP LOW
CHC POP CHCS ACROSS THOSE AREAS FOR THAT POTENTIAL SCENARIO.

UPPER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW IS FCST TO SAG INTO AR ON THU
LEAVING WEAK SFC RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA AT LEAST IN THE MORNING.
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE IS FCST TO DIG INTO THE REGION WHICH SHOULD
HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL KS SO WILL KEEP PRECIP
CHCS IN THE FCST THU INTO FRI AS THE UPPER WAVE SHARPENS AND MOVES
ACROSS THE REGION. BY THE 4TH OF JULY IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL WAA
RE-DEVELOPS WHICH COULD HELP SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF PM STORMS
GIVEN CONTINUED NW FLOW ALOFT. ALL IN ALL THE EXTENDED FCST WILL
INCLUDE DAILY STORM CHCS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND TIMING
REMAINS LOW GIVEN NW FLOW PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CU WITH BASES OF
6,000 TO 9,000 FEET WILL FORM THIS AFTERNOON. THE BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. I CANNOT
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE
KFOE AND KTOP TERMINALS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...OMITT
AVIATION...GARGAN


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