Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 210828
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
328 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Ridge of high pressure in the upper atmosphere continues to build
into the Central Plains early this morning. Low level jet has been
veering around to the west through 08Z across the Central Plains.
Dew point temperatures ranged from the upper 60s to lower 70s at 08Z
across the cwa.

Today will be the first day of excessive heat and humidity.
Soundings show mixing down from 850mb once again and expect highs to
range from the lower 90s near Garnett to the around 102 in north
central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices are expected to range from
101 to 110. Have expanded the current heat advisory for today to
include Lyon, Osage and Franklin counties. Coffey and Anderson are
not expected to reach near 105 heat index this afternoon. With the
upper ridge in place most areas will see plenty of sun, areas near
the Nebraska border may have a little more in the way of high based
clouds today. Timing for heat advisory still looks on track for the
noon to 9PM timeframe. Winds will increase this morning into the 12
to 18 mph range with gusts around 28 mph by the afternoon.

Tonight, a shortwave trough will move across the Northern Plains
will shove a cold front southward across much of Nebraska by 12Z
Tuesday. There may be isolated thunderstorms along the boundary, but
are expected to remain to the north of the front in Nebraska near
the 850 mb frontal location, so left the forecast dry. Lows tonight
will be mild with lows in the lower to middle 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 328 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

Heat continues in force for Tuesday with front`s approach giving one
last push of hot air in as thermal ridge sets up over northern
Kansas through at least midday. Cold front, from most guidance,
continues to slow a bit, but should enter far northern areas in the
late afternoon. Could have decent coverage of mid cloud in the
morning, but good insolation and mixing of the still humid airmass
should push apparent temps well into advisory range for the entire
area. Soundings continue to show some inhibition, but believe
at least a few storms will fire in the afternoon and increase
somewhat in coverage into the evening as outflows take shape and the
southwestern edge of the upper wave brings additional forcing as
higher precipitable water values via better mid level moisture come
in. Still appears isolated downburst winds will be the limit of
severe weather potential in the hot airmass and weak to moderate
shear.

Wednesday and Thursday bring steadily cooler and drier air into the
lower levels as high pressure builds in. Storms could linger into
Wednesday morning as well. Precipitation chances return Thursday
night into at least the early portions Friday as the high exits and
elevated moisture pushes back east. Decent model agreement with
another cold front settling in Friday night into Saturday in the
continued northwest flow aloft. Front may linger in southern areas
into Saturday night as well. Temps should briefly ramp up between
fronts Friday and not drop off too much Saturday and Sunday given
the modified continental nature of this airmass.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFs through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1137 PM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

Vfr conditions will persist across all terminal sites through the
forecast with only scattered AC around 15 kft. South winds will
increase again aft 14Z with gusts in the 22-25kt range before
decreasing again near 01Z to sustained 8-10 kts.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY from Noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening FOR
KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056.

HEAT ADVISORY from Noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday FOR KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...63





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