Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 281719

1119 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2014

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A positive tilt broad upper level trough extended from the upper
Midwest, southwest into NM/AZ. A short wave upper trough continues
to push east across MS river valley. A second short wave upper
trough across the pacific northwest will dig southeast into the base
of the longer wave trough then lift east into the central high
plains late Sunday night. High clouds will increase across northern
KS Sunday night ahead of advancing H5 trough.

At the surface a broad ridge of high pressure extended from northern
MO, southwest across east central KS into OK and southwest TX early
this morning. The surface ridge will move east into MO and AR
through the day Sunday. Surface winds will become southerly and with
insolation temperatures should warm slightly into the mid 30s to
around 40 degrees.

Tonight, High clouds will increase across the CWA. Overnight lows
will drop into the upper teens to lower 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 315 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

Cold front will edge southward through the northwest half of the
county warning area through mid morning before the remainder of the
cwa through the early afternoon...which is a little slower than some
of the previous model runs. Either way...high temperatures in the
20s and 30s will still occur during the first half of the day with
temperatures falling all areas through the remainder of the
afternoon. An area of light snow in the wake of the front to the
north in NE may slip southward across the cwa Monday into Monday
night. This would primarily apply to Monday night as the best lift
coincides with the saturation of the dendritic zone with fairly high
snow ratios. Even then...most areas should be limited to no more
than a quarter to half inch of accumulation. Although the coldest
lows of the week will be Tuesday night with readings from -1 to 9
above...the north winds will be stronger Monday...therefore the wind
chill indices both nights will be 0 to -14.

Although the EC and GFS Models are better agreement by Friday that
the western trough will emerge from the desert southwest and into
the central plains...the GEM still keeps it much further south.
Also...the GFS remains warmer with a higher rain potential across
much of the cwa on Friday than the cooler EC. For now...will
maintain a rain/snow potential across the entire area on Friday then
a light snow chance all areas Friday night before ending in the far
east early Saturday. Will maintain highs in the upper 20s and 30s
Thursday thru Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFs through 18Z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1112 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

A weak surface ridge over eastern Kansas this morning will move
east this afternoon and tonight while an arctic front moves south
across the plains. Do not expect a rapid wind shift with the
frontal passage. Instead, the boundary will slowly move through
sometime Monday morning and the winds will become northeast. The
models are in decent agreement move through front through. There
should mid/high clouds Monday as upper vertical motion increases
ahead of a mid-level trough. Low-levels will be dry Monday morning
so only VFR cigs.




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