000
FXUS63 KTOP 252332
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
632 PM CDT SUN SEP 25 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

This afternoon, the surface front that moved through the area
earlier in the morning has pushed southeast draped from central MO
into OK.  Rainfall this morning, added to amounts received last
night, have continued to keep some rivers in flood stage today,
along with some minor flooding near creeks and streams.  See flood
products for details. Cloud cover has been lingering behind the
front, but will continue to clear from northwest to southeast into
the early evening. Temperatures have cooled considerably this
afternoon, and highs today are only expected to reach the lower 70s,
possibly even the upper 60s in some locations.  High pressure will
stay just to the west but nose into the area this evening and
overnight, drifting southeast through the day tomorrow.  This will
generally leave winds from the north keeping cool conditions in
place for tomorrow as well.  Overnight, winds become lighter and
clouds clear which leaves the concern for some patchy fog with the
precipitation from yesterday and this morning.  For now, there still
looks to be a decent dewpoint depression and models have not picked
up on any formation so have not mentioned it in any products.  Lows
tonight are expected to be in the mid to upper 40s area wide.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

An upper level low over Lake Superior Monday night will gradually
drift south into the Ohio Valley by Wednesday then into the
Tennessee Valley by the end of the week. Westerly winds in the 925mb-
850mb levels will bring some downslope warming for Tuesday with
highs in the upper 70s. Energy rotating around the upper low Tuesday
night into Wednesday will bring cooler air into central and eastern
Kansas with northeasterly low level flow. Highs on Wednesday should
range from the lower to mid 70s. Cool high pressure will settle over
the Central and into the Southern Plains Thursday with highs only in
the lower 70s. Models have slowed the progression of west coast
trough at the end of the week keeping a ridge over the area before
breaking it down over next weekend. Both the ECMWF and the GFS are
slower to bring energy out into the Central Plains next weekend to
some degree but weaker than previous runs. Precipitation are small
for late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR conditions are likely through the entire TAF period. Winds
will become lighter tonight but expect enough low level mixing to
prevent any fog development. At 23Z the TOP ASOS was reporting 4SM
vis, but this seems to be a sensor issue and vis is P6SM.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Heller
LONG TERM...53
AVIATION...Barjenbruch