


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS
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192 FXUS63 KTOP 121654 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1154 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Slightly cooler this weekend, then back in the 90s for the first half of next week. - Continued low (20-40%) rain chances through mid-week, but no good signal for widespread, appreciable rainfall. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 239 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Yesterday evening`s cold front has fully moved across the forecast area, and is now stretched across the Ozarks and into northeast Oklahoma. Behind this first front is a weak reinforcing front moving across central KS and NE. This is tied to a stronger but farther north shortwave moving across the Northern Plains this morning. A few lingering showers and storms along this secondary front will briefly make it into north-central KS by sunrise, but should quickly weaken as they run into higher CIN and weaker upper support. Otherwise, the weekend looks rather quiet. Temperatures behind the front will be a bit cooler than the past few days, though still only a degree or two below average highs/lows. Will keep some 20% PoPs around across parts of east-central KS, as a subtle mid-level wave over Oklahoma may be enough to develop some light rain to the north of the old frontal boundary. Temperatures warm back up Monday through Wednesday as upper flow to our north becomes more zonal again and southerly surface winds return. Similar to the past few days, highs climb into the 90s each day with lows near 70. A moist and uncapped airmass will keep precipitation chances around as well, though with little upper forcing the chances for widespread moderate to heavy rainfall seem unlikely. Still some indications for a bit of a stronger shortwave to clip the area sometime late Wednesday or Thursday, pushing another weak front southward. If this did occur, it would again bring slightly cooler temperatures and better precipitation chances. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 Based on upstream obs and satellite imagery, low end VFR stratus is progged to become scattered this afternoon while mid-high clouds continue to build east throughout the evening. SHRA probability remains low tonight at terminals as the system passes over Oklahoma. Light winds and mid clouds are expected to linger through tomorrow morning. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Reese AVIATION...Prieto