Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 261123

National Weather Service Topeka KS
523 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 426 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

The Thanksgiving Day Winter Storm is the main concern for the short
term forecast. The strong upper low is currently centered over
western Utah this morning, with multiple embedded waves of vorticity
maxima traversing northeast towards the central plains. Sfc obs over
northeast KS are trending cooler compared to previous days guidance
with temps falling to the upper 30s already in north central KS.
Scattered rain showers have also developed with the increasing warm
air advection occurring over the front. Meanwhile the actual cold
front is bisecting the CWA from southwest to northeast, making a
steady progression southeast later this morning. Below freezing
temps have entered south central NE at this time.

Main changes made with respect to the latest guidance is to trend
the progression of the below freezing temps a few hours faster as
current obs combined with the latter SREF and NAM runs coming in
colder than previously noted, lead to the indication that there may
be more accumulating ice to occur over north central KS in the
afternoon and early evening hours, where the highest qpf amounts are
expected. A quick quarter to half of an inch of ice is possible for
these areas through Friday. These areas are under the Winter Storm
Warning. Further south for much of the CWA, we can expect between 1
and 2 inches of rainfall in the daytime hours where temps remain
above freezing. Current temps from the upper 30s over Concordia to
the lower 60s in Topeka will remain steady before gradually falling
in the afternoon and evening periods as cold air advection increases
with winds at 15 to 25 mph sustained.

During the evening and overnight periods, I expect the below
freezing temps to progress eastward. Main focus for lift shifts
eastward after 06Z with the heaviest precipitation gradually tapering
off around midnight. However any precipitation that falls during the
evening hours will likely result in a freezing rain, sleet mix. Some
light snow will also be possible for areas near the Nebraska border.
Accumulations of snow less than an inch are expected. Accumulating
ice up to a quarter inch is possible over portions of east central
KS beginning around midnight through Friday. A Freezing Rain
Advisory has been issued for these areas since qpf amounts are
expected to be much lighter between a tenth and two tenths of an
inch. Lows tonight were lowered a few degrees with the colder air
progressing faster, ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s for the

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 426 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

Expect freezing precipitation to be continuing during the morning
hours on Friday before the main axis of precipitation shifts to the
southeast. Latest NAM and ARW suggest a second round of
precipitation developing during the afternoon and overnight hours as
another wave moves out into into the plains out of the western low.
Best chances will be across southern Kansas and could clip east
central Kansas and have kept highest probability going there.
Thermal profiles still show a warm nose over the cold dome. Expect
mainly periods of freezing rain across the area Friday morning with
the exception of north central Kansas where sleet will mix in as
well. Have extended the winter storm warning out to noon Friday from
Emporia to Hiawatha where local ice amounts may be in the 0.20 to
0.30 inch range. Further east a Freezing rain advisory is in effect
until 6 PM Friday where lower amounts of ice are expected. The messy
wintry pattern continues through the weekend as energy eject out
across the Plains and isentropic upglide of warm air over the cold
air at the surface. There will be some moderation of the low level
cold air across the eastern half of the cwa on Saturday afternoon
where temperatures will rise into the mid 30s in the afternoon
hours. Saturday night a mix of freezing drizzle and freezing rain is
possible into early Sunday. Temperatures warm enough on Sunday for
any precipitation to be rain. The upper low will gradually move out
into the Plains on Monday and exit the region Monday night bringing
an end to the precipitation. Models diverge for the Tuesday through
Thursday period next week and while they differ on the details the
consensus is fore a dry forecast with highs in the 40s and lows in
the 20s which is about normal for late November and early December.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 517 AM CST THU NOV 26 2015

IFR ceilings are increasing over KMHK behind the frontal boundary
progged to arrive at KTOP/KFOE at 15Z. IFR conditions follow
through the afternoon with periods of light to moderate rain. By
late afternoon, heavier rain bands will drop conditions to IFR
and LIFR. As this occurs, rain transitions to light freezing rain
aft 00Z at KMHK and near 05Z at KTOP/KFOE. VLIFR conditions are
likely through 12Z.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to noon CST Friday
for KSZ011-012-022>024-035>038-054.

Freezing Rain Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Friday
for KSZ026-039-040-055-056-058.

Winter Storm Warning from noon today to 6 AM CST Friday for



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