Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 221118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
618 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Early this morning, the closed mid-level low was beginning to
progress eastward over the area, with surface high pressure sinking
southward into western KS. Short-range models are trending a bit
faster with the diminishing rain showers as the mid-level low
continues to progress eastward into Missouri.  By sunrise, expect
the scattered light rain showers to be focused generally along and
southeast of the I-35 corridor with these showers exiting the CWA by
mid to late morning.  Models show the surface high pressure over
western KS this morning becoming centered over central KS this
afternoon and overspreading the entire CWA overnight tonight.  As a
result, expect scattering cloud cover this afternoon from northwest
to southeast across the CWA.  Despite skies becoming partly to
mostly sunny today, the northerly winds will keep temperatures below
the seasonal normals with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s.  The
coolest conditions are expected across far east central KS where
some cloud cover will likely linger through much of the day.

As surface high pressure becomes centered over the CWA overnight
tonight, expect clear skies to support decent radiational cooling,
resulting in low temperatures plunging into the mid/upper 30s. These
cool temperatures combined with light winds may result in some areas
of patchy frost developing early Sunday morning, primarily in low-
lying areas and along the Kansas River valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

A return to sunshine on Sunday after a cold morning start with
some patchy frost possible in low spots, however temps rise
quickly and highs rise to near 70 for Sunday afternoon. Southerly
surface winds are on the increase as the lee trof strengthens, and
should keep lows up in the 40s for Sunday night. Highs on Monday
are forecast in the 70s, with breezy south winds around 20 mph and
gusts 30-35mph possible in the afternoon hours. Could even be a
little cool on the forecast lows as next approaching front may mix
the area a few degrees warmer.

Under zonal flow aloft, the front that comes through late Monday
retreats back northward Monday night, with yet another front
pushing southward later Tuesday afternoon. Both these factors
bring a return to some low chances for rain through Tuesday night.
Eastern zones may catch a break Wednesday afternoon and evening as
the high pressure moves in, but as the front returns back over the
area Wednesday night, the rain chances also return. Have kept
thunder out for most of these periods as the area is often behind
the fronts and lacking instability. This starts to change by
Friday and into the weekend as long term guidance indicate some
kind of western trof to set up over the SW US and move into the
Plains states. Still considerable differences in timing and
locations for potential associated severe weather, but worth
noting here that returned thunder to the forecast for Friday and
will want to watch how the system evolves.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

For the 12z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Expect any lingering showers from the overnight hours to diminish
by the start of the TAF period with clearing skies during the
afternoon. KTOP/KFOE may have some occasional gusty northerly
winds at around 20kts this afternoon.




SHORT TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Hennecke is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.