Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 022339
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Topeka KS
539 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Have been able to chop away at counties in the warning and advisory
as the heavier bands of snow continue to develop just west and north
of the forecast area.  Starting to see some echoes develop just east
of the surface low over far northern Kansas ans lift northward. Some
short term guidance still indicates light snow wrapping around
behind the system as it lifts out, and will carry some light
accumulations in the far northwest and keep light snow showers
moving across the area through the evening and overnight.  Areas
along and east of Marysville likely to stay rain showers for a few
more hours before colder deeper air pushes eastward. Kept a winter
weather advisory in place for Republic county for snowfall this
evening. Winds sustained 15-20 mph with higher gusts still expected
through the night tonight until the pressure gradient slowly starts
to relax later Wednesday. Lows tonight fall into the upper teens to
middle 20s before only rising into the middle 20s to middle 30s for
Wednesday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 253 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

Wednesday Night through Friday...

On Thursday the longwave trough axis will move eastward over the
area leading to northwest flow aloft, but westerly flow in the lower
levels. This will help advect warmer temperatures into the region
causing highs to range from the mid 40s to mid 30s. The cooler
temperatures will be in north central KS where there is some snow
cover. A shortwave will then approach the area from the northern
Rockies on Friday, which will bring a cold front eastward. Ahead of
the front highs will generally be in the 40s. For now this cold
front passage looks to be dry.

Friday Night through Tuesday...

Northwest flow aloft is expected to dominate through the period.
Decent agreement between EC and GFS with the passage of a cold
front on Sunday. However, a lack of moisture shall yield minimal,
if any precipitation. WAA ahead of the front will help warm
temperatures to near 50 degrees for Saturday and Sunday. Highs will
fall back into 30s for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 536 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

MVFR CIGS likely for the first half of the TAF period with gradual
improvement into the early morning tomorrow. While battling dry
air aloft, it is still possible to see a period of light snow. If
moisture does saturate enough to drop snow, then could see IFR
CIGS and some reduced VIS. Have handled this with a TEMPO group.
Winds veer to the WNW and gradually diminish into the day
tomorrow.

&&

.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for KSZ008.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...Sanders/Baerg
AVIATION...Drake


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