Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 142342
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
542 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

A mid shortwave over MT will track eastward tonight causing a trough
axis to pass over the area. At the surface a lee side trough will
push through the area as the shortwave moves over the northern US.
Low level moisture has been in place ahead of the trough for several
days now with an elevated mixed layer around 750 mb above this
low level moisture. Isentropic lift within the saturated layers is
expected to persist this evening. As of this afternoon mixing in
the boundary layer has allowed the visibility to improve and
ceilings to slightly lift. The exception has been far east central
KS where the temps have not warmed much today and the fog and
drizzle has been persistent. As temperatures cool this evening
the mixing should decrease and more rounds of drizzle may be
possible. A majority of the short term guidance is showing lower
visibilities especially across east central KS starting later
this evening therefore have kept the mention of patchy fog for
most locations. The large scale lift looks to increase tonight,
which may result in scattered showers with the boundary passage.
During this time frame the elevated mixed layer looks to cool
enough for maybe for enough instability to produce isolated
thunder. If patchy fog forms these showers could cause fog to lift
for brief periods. Dry air filters in behind the front which will
result in clear skies for most of the area around or shortly
after sunrise. The source of the cold does not really pass over
our area so highs tomorrow manage the upper 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

Models are in agreement in briefly clearing the low level moisture
out of the area Wednesday night and Thursday before it returning
Thursday night.  With sunshine, expect highs to top out in the mid
to upper 50s on Thursday.

Stratus and drizzle/light rain to expected across the area late
Thursday night and Friday morning in the strong low level warm air
advection. Moisture should be shunted off to the east by afternoon
and with clearing, expect highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s
across the area.  Record highs for November 17th are 78 at Topeka
and 76 at Concordia.

Cold front to sweep across the area Friday evening with small
chances for post frontal showers as lift associated with the upper
level short wave moves across the area during the overnight hours.

Expect skies to clear rapidly on Saturday behind the upper system
with highs Saturday and Sunday expected to be in the lower to middle
50s.

Significant differences between the 12Z GFS and the 12Z ECMWF in the
handling of the upper level trough over the eastern US on Monday and
Tuesday. If the GFS solution is correct, could see another round of
above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Tue Nov 14 2017

IFR to LIFR stratus will linger through much of the night in
northeast Kansas, with ceilings near low MVFR levels further west.
Ongoing light drizzle will give way to scattered showers and
possibly a thunderstorm from MHK on east from 06 to 12Z, though
confidence was not high enough to mention in any TAFs. Stratus
rapidly clears as a front passes through between 08 and 14Z with
winds switching to the NNW and increasing to 10 to 20 kts during
the day on Wednesday.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Walawender
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Skow



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