Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 281135

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
635 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

Old effective front and widespread convection continues to sink south
out the Central Plains early this morning. Upper trough however
remains upstream with some mid and high cloud working its way
northeast across the area. Isolated showers recently developed in
southwest Kansas but continued southeast movement of the trough
should keep anything more than a sprinkle to the southeast. A few
upper waves were noted rotating around the upper low in southern

Weak but deep subsidence should bring mainly clear skies for today
into this evening behind the main upper trough. Modified Pacific
airmass will keep temps on the warm side with highs in the lower 80s
from most guidance. One of the stronger upper troughs slides
southeast into the Great Lakes tonight, with a weak front entering
late. Although there is some variation in details, several models
bring enough mid-level frontogenesis and moisture into the north for
some very light precip potential toward dawn. Have inserted some
sprinkles at this point.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

High pressure continues to slide southeastward into the state
through the day on Memorial Day / Monday. Very little lift
associated with this feature - possibly enough for some isolated
showers or a rumble of thunder as a longshot, but not seeing
enough evidence of lift to support this in the forecast for the
daytime hours. Highs near 80 expected, with lows in the 50s.

The leading edge of the front lingers over the southern counties
late Monday night, and lift over the front could be enough for
another chance for rain in the far southern counties. Better
chances may come later Tuesday afternoon as the larger scale upper
trof flattens just enough for a bit more instability and lift to
come back north over eastern Kansas. Another lobe of energy pushes
drier air back south for Tuesday overnight into Wednesday, with
GFS then indicating better chance for rain Thursday into Friday
as upper shortwave trofs move out of the southwest and across the
Central Plains around the periphery of the persistent Canadian
upper low. That low may finally start to make some eastward
progress by late in the forecast period, but consistency and
confidence in the extended pattern evolution much beyond
Wednesday is low. Highs Tues-Sat still forecast in the upper 70s
to around 80, but could be cooler if a wetter pattern plays out,
with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 28 2017

VFR conditions will continue with modest northwest winds. See very
little opportunity for any restrictions.




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