Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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000
FXUS63 KTOP 161718
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1118 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Forecast concerns for the short term remain related to fire weather,
although sensible weather otherwise is quite spring like for this
time of year.  Highs today climb into the low 70s across the area,
with southwest winds generally 10-20mph.  The higher winds are
across the southeastern half of the forecast area, and is where red
flag conditions are of concern. See fire weather discussion for
details.  Warm air advection aloft and light winds continue
overnight and should hold overnight lows up into upper 30s to low
40s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Upper flow remains split through this forecast, with northern branch
of the westerlies in a zonal to southwest flow orientation and north
of the area. This keeps very warm temps in place through these
periods. After today, most record high temperatures over the next
several days are in the mid to upper 70s and are unlikely to be
reached.

First southern stream wave still stays to the south Friday and
Friday night, though the 0Z NAM is attempting to produce some
showers in the southeast in weak deformation and where moisture is
deeper. Its PW values are considerably higher than the GFS and any
18Z GEFS ensemble member and have stayed course with no mention of
precip. The 06Z NAM keeps all precip to the southeast.

A weak boundary still sags south into the area Saturday and may
bring slightly cooler temps. There is a consistent signal for
south winds increasing Saturday night for a notable increase in
925mb moisture, though depths still appear shallow and the
potential for this to develop into stratus is uncertain. Will keep
Sunday`s temps near previous levels but this will need to be
watched. Best precip chances of this forecast still coming Sunday
night into Monday evening as upper energy shears out over Central
Plains. Still much to be determined in specifics of this, keeping
highest PoPs in the Likely range. GFS, ECMWF, and nearly all 0Z
GEFS members push any precip out by Tuesday morning, and despite
inherent uncertainties with southern states lows in split flow,
have removed any PoPs for Tuesday. South winds, rising dewpoints,
and increasing cloud will likely keep lows Sunday night in the
lower 50s. Could see record highest minimum temps set Monday
depending on trends that evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1117 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

VFR will prevail throughout the period.  Main focus will be on gusty
winds at TOP/FOE this afternoon, expected to continue until 23-00Z.
LLWS is forecast at TOP/FOE from 03-12Z.  There is a chance MHK may
reach LLWS criteria for a brief period early Friday morning, however
kept it out of this TAF issuance.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Southeast half of the area remains borderline for red flag
conditions today, and given dry fuel conditions reported by area
agencies,  will go ahead and hoist a red flag warning this morning
for the watch counties. RH values drop toward 20 percent for much of
the forecast area, but winds remain on the lighter side across north
central Kansas.  They approached 20mph mainly south and east of
Manhattan with gusts near 25mph in east central Kansas this
afternoon.

Have continued to side on the warm/dry/windy side for Friday. More
southerly flow character brings better moisture advection
however and should keep RH values above today`s values.
Nevertheless, Very High fire danger indices develop at least
briefly for much of the area.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 304 AM CST Thu Feb 16 2017

Record High Temperatures for February 16

Topeka...74, set in 1961.
Concordia...71, set in 1913.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ022>024-026-
036>040-054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...Heller
FIRE WEATHER...67/65
CLIMATE...65



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