Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 161123
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
623 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Seasonably warm today before a much cooler air mass moves into the
 area late this weekend.

-The forecast is dry until midweek when precipitation may return
 to the area. Confidence generally remains low on chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Prior to sunrise this morning, surface obs showed high pressure
residing over KS. Surface low pressure was deepening in central
Ontario, Canada with a cold front trailing through the Upper
Midwest. That boundary will advance quickly southward and move
through the CWA this afternoon. Winds increase and shift from the
west to the north as the front moves through. Drier air will then
filter into the area as temperatures warm into the 60s this
afternoon. CAA will commence late today and continue through Sunday
as a Canadian ridge travels south over the Northern High Plains.
This pattern will cause temperatures to be about 15 degrees cooler
tomorrow afternoon compared to today. And while some green up may be
occurring, low afternoon RH values combined with breezy winds
will create elevated fire danger concerns today and tomorrow. RH
values will drop to between 20 and 30 percent while winds gust
to 20-25 mph this afternoon. Tomorrow, RH will be slightly
lower and north winds will be slightly higher, gusting to near
30 mph.

The center of the surface ridge will then slide right overhead
Monday morning, which is when we will experience our coldest
conditions. Low temperatures will be well below freezing in the
low 20s to start the workweek with a gradual warm up to just shy
of 50 degrees during the afternoon.

Southwest winds return briefly early Tuesday ahead of another quick
moving cold front dropping southward through the Midwest. A
noticeable warm up will occur as temps return to the 60s to near 70
degrees Tuesday afternoon. Aloft, models show closed low pressure
over the Dessert Southwest evolving into an open wave and advancing
east toward the TX panhandle through midweek. Low level moisture
will increase ahead of that system, allowing for increasing POPs as
the wave approaches. Ensembles differ slightly on chances for at
least 0.1" of rain on Thursday, with the EC and NBM ensembles
showing a 20-40% chance (lower north, higher south), and the GFS
favoring higher probabilities - generally in the 40-60% range.
The NBM lingers slight chances into Friday, but confidence remains
low given model variation at this range.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Mar 16 2024

VFR prevails today, with sfc winds being the main focus of TAFs.
West winds increase after sunrise to 10-15 kts, and veer throughout
the day as a frontal boundary moves through the area. West-northwest
winds gust to 20-25 kts during this afternoon, then shift to the
north. Wind speeds will decrease to below 10 kts after sunset.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Teefey
AVIATION...Teefey


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