Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 272313
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
513 PM MDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

20Z analysis shows the upper low is currently located over
western Kansas with bands of showers and thunderstorms rotating
northward from the low and into South Dakota. Diurnal heating and
low level moisture have increase MUCAPE to 100-250J/KG over the
forecast area this afternoon which combined with instability aloft
have created isold-sct -shra over much of the forecast area with a
few thunderstorms as well. expect to see the showers end
relatively early this evening. Low temperatures will be slightly
cooler than average.

On saturday, the upper low will move into the Great Lakes region as
a northern stream shortwave crosses the Canadian border into MT,
dragging a sfc boundary into the forecast. This boundary should
be the focus for isold-sct shower and thunderstorm activity again with
rather weak instability. Temperatures on Saturday will be
slightly cooler than average. On Saturday night, the boundary
will shift east as a weak shortwave ridge builds over the region
with subsidence working to end any precip.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Persistent upper level trough over the northwest
CONUS will keep active west to southwest flow across the Northern
Plains for the Memorial Day weekend and into the middle of next
week. Periodic shortwave energy will eject out of the trough keeping
a daily chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through
the middle of next week. It still looks like Memorial Day into that
night could bring the best chances for storms as an upper low pushes
into the region. A ridge develops over the western CONUS behind the
low, and with northwest flow over the Northern Plains, the second
half of next week looks drier. Temperatures will be near seasonal
averages, with highs each day generally in the mid 60s to upper 70s.
Warmer temperatures are possible with the drier weather for the
second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued At 508 PM MDT Fri May 27 2016

Showers will dissipate this evening across the area. Isolated to
scattered showers/storms will re-develop across the CWA sat
afternoon, most numerous in the hills. Mvfr conds will be
possible in shra.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC


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