Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 250507
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1107 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
NORTHERN PLAINS...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS DRAPED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA.
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...TEMPS AT 2PM ARE IN THE 70S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND
FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD...RETURN FLOW WILL HELP BRING WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION...WITH SLIGHTLY BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ON TUESDAY. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PERSIST OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE RIDGE WILL PEAK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE RIDGE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS
ARE NOW SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH WITH THE WEAKLY DEFINED UPPER LOW
AND BOTH NOW ARE TRENDING TOWARD MORE QUICKLY MOVING IF OFF TO THE
EAST. CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY... WITH THE CHANCE OF PRECIP MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM
WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND THEN WARMER
AGAIN INTO THE WEEKEND AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1106 PM MDT MON AUG 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...7



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