Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 072215

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
315 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Current surface analysis shows warm front over central SD, with
milder air building in behind it. Upper level analysis shows broad
trough covering most of the central and eastern US, with high
amplitude ridge along the west coast. Mostly mid and high clouds
cover the area, with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Temps
are mostly in the 30s with breezy west to northwest winds across
portions of northeast WY and northwest SD.

Looks like we will return to our mild pattern of mid to late
November for at least the next week or so as large scale upper
pattern remains fairly stagnant during this time. This will result
in a generally mild, dry, and occasionally windy pattern through the

The warming trend will continue through the weekend as ridge along
the west coast nudges eastward. Highs on Friday will mostly be in
the 40s, with mid 40s to mid 50s Saturday, and 50s to around 60 on
Sunday. Dry weather is expected through the period, though gusty
winds will prevail at times, especially during the PM hours.

A clipper system is progged to slide quickly southeast across the
Northern Plains Sunday night into early Monday, only bringing a
glancing blow of colder air to our area for Monday. At this time, it
looks like the pcpn with the system will stay north and east of the
CWA. We could see winds approaching advisory criteria across at
least portions of the SD plains later Sunday night into Monday.

Model uncertainty increases beyond the day 5 range, especially with
regard to timing and track of weaker disturbances in persistent
northwest flow. At this time, temps look to warm back up well above
average Tuesday, before another clipper system brings some cooler
air sometime midweek.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Friday)
Issued At 1011 AM MST Thu Dec 7 2017

Isolated -SHSN may occur today, mainly over the Black Hills with
local MVFR conditions. Otherwise VFR conditions expected through
Friday morning. Northwest winds will increase again this afternoon
with windy conditions likely continuing through tonight.




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