Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 141641
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
941 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 248 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Slow moving upper ridge will continue to affect the region today
and Wednesday. West to northwest low level flow will continue to
advect in warmer air through the short term as surface high
pressure across the Rockies into the northern plains persists.
This will bring sunny skies to the region through Wednesday. Highs
today will reach the mid 40s to mid 50s across most
locations...possibly reaching near 60 across the northern and
eastern foothills of the Black Hills. Warmer temperatures are then
expected Wednesday with highs in the 50s to low/mid 60s. Lows
will generally be in the mid 20s to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Monday)
Issued at 248 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

Mild and dry weather will continue through the week, as the upper
ridge slowly transitions eastward. Midweek WAA will result in
well above average temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, with highs
in the 50s and 60s. The downsloping northern/eastern foothills
may even see lower 70s on Thursday. Toward the end of the work
week into the weekend, upper flow becomes more southwesterly ahead
of a Pacific trough. A weak wave will bring slightly cooler, but
still above average, temperatures for the weekend. Models continue
to show an upper trough over the western CONUS early next week.
This system may bring rain/snow to the region; however, models are
still inconsistent with the track, timing, and strength of the
system.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 940 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Breezy northwest winds will redevelop across the western SD plains
this afternoon, with breezy southwest winds over northeastern WY
tonight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 248 AM MST Tue Feb 14 2017

With well above average temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, min
RH values will dip into the teens and 20s with Thursday being the
drier day. Winds will be fairly light across western SD, but gusty
southwest winds over parts of northeastern WY (where min RH will
be 15-20%) may raise fire weather concerns.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...Pojorlie
FIRE WEATHER...13



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