Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 010436
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
936 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Thursday Night)
Issued at 159 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Upper low is over MN/WI, gradually shifting eastward.
A shortwave ridge is pushing over the northern Rockies, with another
trough following behind. Light snow continues across portions of
western SD. Pressure gradient is slackening, but breezy northwest
winds of 15-20 kts continue across the SD plains. Temperatures are
in the 20s to lower 30s.

Snow will continue to diminish late this afternoon. Other than some
lingering light snow over northwestern SD, tonight will be dry.
Winds will become light, and lows will be generally in the teens.

Next upper trough will approach the region Thursday. Limited
moisture with this system will keep most of the CWA dry; however,
Froude indicates some upsloping over the northern Hills Thursday
afternoon and overnight. SREF and NAM show an inch or so of snow
accumulation there, with minimal to no accumulation from the ECMWF
and GFS. Highs Thursday will be in the 30s, and lows will be in the
teens.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Through Wednesday)
Issued at 159 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Dry weather is expected across much of the forecast
area for Friday and the weekend. The exception will be across far
northeast WY...the Black Hills...and northwest SD where a few snow
showers are possible Friday and Saturday as weak energy moves across
in west-northwest flow aloft. Highs will be in the mid 20s to mid
30s Friday, with a slight warmup to the mid 30s to mid 40s by Sunday
as a weak ridge quickly passes over the region.

12z models runs are still pointing to a surge of arctic air early
next week. A large upper trof is progged to develop across the
western CONUS allowing an arctic front to cross the northern plains
Monday. This may bring some light snow showers to the area. A strong
storm system is then progged to developed along the baroclinic zone
stalled across the central plains as an upper trough deepens across
the western CONUS. Though there are inconsistencies on the track of
this system between models...the track generally takes the system
across central Nebraska and eastern SD into Minnesota. These
solutions keep the CWA relatively precip-free with perhaps the
exception of central SD. Temperatures look to be well below average
Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the teens and 20s and lows in
the single digits to around zero.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued At 931 PM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Mainly VFR conds through the period. The exception will be far
eastern areas where sct MVFR cigs will hold on through most of
tonight and through the day Thur. FLurries/light snow will taper
off overnight. Another disturbance will push into the region
Thurs morning. This may support a few light snow showers over
western areas, with isold mvfr conds over ne WY and the Black
Hills.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pojorlie
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...JC



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