Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 231128
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
528 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

CURRENT UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
REGION FROM THE WEST EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA FROM THIS AFTN
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOW THE NORTHERN PLAINS
CURRENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...AS THE
UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS
AWAY TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE EJECTING FROM UPPER TROUGH
WILL TRACK INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTN. WITH STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. SUFFICIENT
MUCAPE EXISTS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MAIN TROF APPROACHES THE AREA. LOW LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AREA WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK HILLS WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH TEMPS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S. BREEZY TO WINDY SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.

TUESDAY WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE COOLER...MAINLY IN THE 50S ON THE PLAINS WITH SOME 40S IN
THE BLACK HILLS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE IN THE
MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND THE BLACK
HILLS... MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW SHOWERS. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE VERY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
SD PLAINS.

MILDER AIR WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...
ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY...AS A RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. A PASSING COLD FRONT WILL BRING AT LEAST A SLIGHT COOLDOWN
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 528 AM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF TODAY FOR THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR WESTERN SD THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...MAINLY TONIGHT. &&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...26






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