Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 160913
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
313 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CWA AT
THIS TIME...AND WEAK RIDGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A
SECONDARY TROUGH OVER CENTRAL ALBERTA. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS 997MB
LOW PRESSURE NOW CENTERED JUST WEST OF KICR. A COOLER AND DRIER
AIRMASS IS OVER ERN SD WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT EXTENDING FROM K2X TO
KPHP TO SCNTRL SD. KUDX RADAR AND SURFACE OBS SHOWING RAIN FALLING
ACROSS THE PLAINS MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TO SW SD...AND SNOW
FALLING OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE BLKHLS.

UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD TRACK TODAY AND THE SURFACE
LOW PUSHES INTO SE SD. THE HEAVIEST PRECIP THIS MORNING WILL CROSS
SCNTRL SD AS IT MOVES INTO CNTRL/ERN SD. WITH ACTIVE FLOW
ALOFT...CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA. THE WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER FAR WRN SD. AS A SERIES OF UPPER
WAVES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...NE WY TO THE BLKHLS AREA WILL BE
THE BEST CHANCES FOR SOME MORE PRECIP TODAY. PRECIP WILL BE RAIN OR
SNOW THIS MORNING...THEN ALL RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...AND CHANCES FOR
SNOW OVER THE HIGHER BLKHLS. OVERALL QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT...SO ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE HILLS WILL BE
LIMITED TO AN INCH OR TWO TODAY. MAX TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT CLOSER TO
FREEZING OVER THE HIGHER BLKHLS. ECMWF AND GFS SHOW ACTIVE CYCLONIC
FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIP. SURFACE HIGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...AND SLIDE EAST DURING THE DAY. RETURN FLOW WILL
SET UP OVER THE AREA WITH WARMING TEMPS TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SHORTWAVE RIDGE SLIDES
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...AS UPPER TROF MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES. SURFACE LOW TRACKS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH STRONG PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT HIGH IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE. COOLER
ACROSS NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA WHERE LOW LEVEL INVERSION WILL LIMIT
MIXING. SHORTWAVE TROF LIFTS INTO CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND MAY
BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. FLAT UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...AS
SOUTHERN STREAM TROF TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
DRY AND WARM WEATHER...WITH MOST LOCATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BLACK
HILLS REACHING THE 70S BY MONDAY. LONGWAVE UPPER TROF DIGS ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPING
OVER THE PLAINS. COULD SEE A FEW 80S ON TUESDAY. MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS INTERESTING AS UPPER TROF EJECTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF...ALTHOUGH A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING/TRACK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 311 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TODAY WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBY. SOME IFR CIGS/VSBY EXPECTED AROUND THE
BLACK HILLS...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THIS EVENING...THOUGH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS
NORTHEAST WYOMING/FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7







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