794
FXUS64 KEPZ 261132
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
532 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

It will be very warm and very dry for the week ahead with
afternoon breezes.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

The UL trough responsible for yesterday`s wind, dust, and extreme
fire conditions will continue to depart the region throughout the
day today. We`ll still largely be on the back-side of the trough,
so eastern portions of the CWA will still be a bit on the breezy
side, nothing like seen yesterday though. Ridging builds in its
wake with the axis aligned roughly over us before it slowly
translates eastward by Wednesday. Temperatures will warm as a
result with mild afternoon breezes. Each afternoon Monday onward
El Paso will have a shot at seeing its first 100 degree day. A
minor trough passage tries to push through sometime Friday but
with little impact except maybe a minor uptick in winds. Looking
beyond the forecast package both the GFS and Euro show ridging
beginning to dominate, much typical of June. It is not a matter of
if but when our expected summer heat truly begins.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions expected with SKC-FEW250. Winds will top out around
10 to 15 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Direction will mainly be
from the west (260-280) except at TCS, 180. Winds will subside
again after sunset.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 125 AM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Fire conditions are expected to be much quieter going forward
albeit extremely dry. Afternoon min RH values are still expected
to drop well into the single digits. Winds will top out around 15
MPH this afternoon with a bit stronger winds expected over the
higher elevations of Hudspeth County. Conditions look to be near
or marginally critical for a few hours there. Tomorrow onward,
winds will top out around 10-15 MPH each afternoon. Thus,
elevated fire conditions will continue each day for the
foreseeable future.

Venting for the period will be very good to excellent throughout
the period. Smoke from the Blue 2 fire is expected to move toward
the southeast through this morning before heading due east. It
is expected to start moving toward the east-northeast to northeast
for Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  93  65  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            88  60  93  63 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               92  58  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               88  56  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               65  45  70  47 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    89  58  92  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              80  53  85  54 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   90  53  95  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                88  54  92  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       90  63  95  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                92  53  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             94  58 100  61 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               84  60  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   93  59  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             89  55  94  59 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           90  65  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            89  54  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    92  54  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 90  58  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                88  58  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  78  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                75  48  81  50 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 75  47  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  82  50  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                88  56  90  57 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                89  52  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             82  47  86  49 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   84  50  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    88  52  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               83  54  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  84  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   88  53  93  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  89  54  93  56 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           89  55  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               84  56  88  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown