Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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108
FXUS64 KEWX 181756 AAA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1256 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.UPDATE...
Please see the 18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue at area TAF sites through the remainder
of this afternoon and evening. Gusty south winds can also be expected
through the remainder of today. Low clouds return after 07Z along
I-35 with MVFR cigs developing. MVFR will continue through the mid-
morning hours, with clouds scattering out to VFR after 15Z. At DRT,
we kept the forecast VFR through the period. A few models do show the
potential for low cloud development tomorrow morning after 12Z. For
now, we will hold off on mentioning any cloud cover at this time due
to lack of confidence.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Subtropical Ridge strengthens over our area today. Only subtle
changes in temperatures and dewpoints are expected today. Although
the usual spots will reach Heat Advisory levels for an hour or two,
an Advisory will not be issued as forecast heat indices and/or
temperatures will not be widespread enough or last long enough to
warrant one. Will issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight the
elevated heat indices and temperatures this afternoon and early
evening.

Subtropical Ridge axis lifts north of our area on Monday. Slightly
deeper moisture moves back into our area allowing the seabreeze to
generate isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains
in the afternoon. The thermal ridge pushes away slightly enabling
high temperatures to ease off a degree or two from the last few days.
However, they remain well above normal. Similar to today, some spots
could reach Heat Advisory levels for an hour or so.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Subtropical Ridge remains north of our area through much of the week.
The slightly deeper moisture lingers over our area allowing the
seabreeze to generate isolated showers and thunderstorms near the
Coastal Plains each afternoon. Although forecast temperatures will be
slightly lower than the last few days, they will remain well above
normal.

The passage of several disturbances across the Plains takes a toll on
the Ridge to break it down leaving a general weakness in the pattern
late week through next weekend. The lack of consistency and consensus
continues among the models and ensembles with respect to a surge of
tropical moisture and axes of any troughs. As a result, will only go
with isolated showers and thunderstorms near the Coastal Plains. The
weakness in the Ridge may allow temperatures to drop a little closer
to normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             104  79 101  78 101 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 102  78  99  77  99 /   0   0  -    0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport    102  77 100  75 100 /   0   0  -    0  -
Burnet Muni Airport           101  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          107  79 104  79 103 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       100  78 101  77 100 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport            102  77 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       101  77 100  76 100 /   0   0  -    0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional  101  78 100  77  99 /   0   0  20   0  20
San Antonio Intl Airport      101  79 100  77 100 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport          104  79 102  77 102 /   0   0  -    0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks



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