Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 211753
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1153 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

.AVIATION...
All terminals VFR through the forecast period. Northeasterly winds
become easterly tomorrow. Mid level clouds move in tomorrow but
should not impact flight category. No other significant changes
expected though the period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
A light freeze is expected across parts of the Hill Country this
morning. Temperatures will range from the lower 30s across the Hill
Country to upper 30s over most areas along Interstate 35 and lower
40s along the Rio Grande. Today`s highs are forecast to reach the
lower 50s across the Hill Country to mid 50s along the Rio Grande.
Low level moisture lingers around the Rio Grande for most of today
with mostly cloudy skies while the rest of the area enjoys partly
cloudy to mostly sunny skies.

Surface high pressure system over the region is forecast to push to
the east through the short term period (today through Saturday) with
winds shifting from the northeast to east to southeast next 24
hours. With southerly wind flow anticipated to be in place on
Saturday, highs likely to reach the 60s after a cool morning in the
30s. Partly cloudy skies are forecast for Saturday as moisture
increases and spreads over South Central Texas.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
With return flow yielding increased moisture and cloud cover,
overnight low temperatures on Saturday night into Sunday morning will
be about 10 degrees warmer than the previous several nights.

By Sunday, an upper level low and accompanying short wave trough
comes across the Southern Rockies and into the Plains. This will
further increase southerly return flow and warm air advection, with
breezy southerly winds, surface dew points rapidly increasing into
the upper 50s, and high temperatures returning to seasonal normals.
While a few isolated warm air advection showers cannot be completely
ruled out on Sunday afternoon, have kept the forecast dry at this
time.

The shortwave trough quickly moves into the Midwest on Monday and
sends a Pacific cold front through the region sometime Monday
morning. The timing of the front will largely determine morning lows
on Monday, and for now have opted for a slower frontal passage,
yielding morning lows well above seasonal normals (mid to upper 50s
for Austin and San Antonio). There could be a few showers along and
ahead of the frontal passage, especially across the Coastal Plains,
but for now have maxed PoPs at 20 percent. Despite the cold front,
high temperatures on Monday are expected to be a couple degrees
warmer than Sunday for most locations. Breezy northwesterly winds
behind the front on Monday afternoon will relax by sunset Monday
evening. Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow for lows temps
on Monday night/Tuesday morning to drop to the upper 30s across the
Hill Country to low to mid 40s elsewhere.

Another cold front, this one of the Arctic variety, is expected to
move through the region from northwest to southeast sometime on
Tuesday afternoon (most recent models runs are quicker with the
frontal passage than previous runs). High temperatures on Tuesday
will largely depend upon the exact timing of the cold front. For now
the forecast shows high temps ranging from the mid 60s across the
Hill Country to upper 70s along the Rio Grande. Much like Monday,
breezy north northwesterly winds will come in behind the frontal
passage. Overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be
chilly, with mid 30s across the Hill Country to upper 30s/near 40
elsewhere. A few locations across the Hill Country could flirt with
freezing.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be much cooler than seasonal
normals with clear skies and breezy northerly winds. Winds will
finally relax by Wednesday evening, and light winds, clear skies and
a dry air mass will allow for efficient radiational cooling
Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The current forecast call for
a freeze for the Hill Country with near freezing temperatures
elsewhere.

Cool and tranquil weather is expected to continue into Thursday with
surface high pressure and northwesterly flow aloft over South Central
Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              37  60  48  66  57 /   0   0   0  10  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  34  60  47  67  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     35  61  49  68  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
Burnet Muni Airport            35  58  47  64  52 /   0   0   0  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           42  64  49  76  54 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        35  59  47  65  55 /   0   0   0  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             37  63  49  71  55 /   0   0   0  -   10
San Marcos Muni Airport        34  60  47  68  58 /   0   0   0  10  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   34  61  48  69  60 /   0   0   0  10  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       38  62  50  68  57 /   0   0   0  10  20
Stinson Muni Airport           38  63  51  70  58 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...YB
Long-Term...Runyen
Decision Support...Treadway



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