Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 111751
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1251 PM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
Light showers continue to impact AUS and help with lower cigs below
2000 ft, while lighter radar echoes seen over SAT/SSF allows for
higher cigs between 2000 and 3000 ft. At DRT, no echoes are seen
overhead, and the cigs have already gone to vfr. Slow improvements
along I-35 are expected with cigs to reach vfr levels between 20z
and 23z. An overcast mid level cig is expected to persist for the
remainder of the TAF periods. North winds should remain gusty to
near 30 knots through around 20Z and gradually taper off through the
evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019/

UPDATE...
Ran a quick update to retrend temperatures as the front is just about
through the entire area. Temperatures will be hard pressed to get out
of the 50s for most of our northern areas this afternoon. The rain
associated with the front continues to push south, but another batch
of showers and thunderstorms have developed in our western CWA
associated with mid-level forcing behind the frontal boundary. This
activity should progress from west to east through the morning hours
with chances of rain then decreasing this afternoon for most
locations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019/

UPDATE...
12Z Aviation forecast below.

AVIATION...
At 1130Z the cold front had cleared south of a DRT to SAT line.
Scattered SHRAs are occurring behind the front and will continue
through the morning and into portions of the afternoon. Isolated
TSRAs are also possible. An OVC MVFR deck has developed areawide
over the frontal airmass and will persist through the morning. The
OVC deck is expected to rise to VFR during the early to mid
afternoon. The main concerns will be the gusty N wind behind the cold
front, persisting through much of the day. Wind gusts near or in
excess of 30KT are forecast for many locations through the morning
and into the early afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Fri Oct 11 2019/

SHORT TERM (Today through Saturday)...
Upper air analysis last evening showed zonal flow across Texas with a
low over the Northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front was
moving into Burnet and Llano Counties and stretched back to near
Sonora. Ahead of the front winds were from the southeast and the
airmass is warm and moist with temperatures and dewpoints in the 70s.
Behind the front temperatures are in the 50s in North Texas. The
front is producing showers and thunderstorms from Georgetown to
Rocksprings. The front should be to the southern border of our CWA
by the start of this period. Winds will be from the north to
northeast bringing cooler, drier air. Winds will reach advisory
criteria along the Escarpment and out west coming off the Edwards
Plateau. We should have already reached the high temperature for the
day and temperatures will fall through the day. There will continue
to be a chance for rain behind the front today, but the best chance
for rain will be before noon. Tonight the upper low will move toward
the east and the front will continue to move away from our CWA to the
south. Surface winds will stay out of the north bringing cooler air.
Saturday winds will turn from the north to east and then southeast.
The pressure gradient will be loose and winds will be light.
Temperatures will begin to warm, but we will still be in the cool,
dry airmass.

LONG TERM (Saturday Night through Thursday)...
The upper flow will become nearly zonal Saturday night. The surface
flow will continue to be weak from the southeast through Sunday
night. Monday warm, moist air will begin to move back in from the
Gulf. Tuesday afternoon and evening another cold front will move
into the area from the north. The upper pattern with this front will
be more westerly and the front will move slowly through our CWA. This
will lead to an extended period with chances for rain Tuesday and
Wednesday. The better chances will be Tuesday night when the front
moves over our CWA and slows its southern progress.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              52  45  65  53  76 /  50   0  -   -   10
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  54  47  66  51  76 /  50   0  -   -   10
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  46  66  52  78 /  40   0  -   -   -
Burnet Muni Airport            54  43  62  52  78 /  50  10  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  49  67  54  81 /  50  10  10  -    0
Georgetown Muni Airport        54  43  63  51  76 /  60  -   10  10  10
Hondo Muni Airport             58  48  67  55  79 /  40  -   -    0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  46  67  53  76 /  50   0  -   -   -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   56  49  66  55  78 /  70   0  -    0  10
San Antonio Intl Airport       55  45  67  55  77 /  40   0  -    0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           59  50  68  56  78 /  40   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for Bastrop-Bexar-
Caldwell-Comal-Guadalupe-Hays-Kinney-Lee-Medina-Travis-Uvalde-Val
Verde-Williamson.

&&

$$

Aviation...Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...Hampshire
Public Service/Data Collection...33


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