Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 171919
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
219 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
Elevated heat indices remain the short-term concern with most areas
seeing values approaching the lower end of Heat Advisory conditions.
A look at 24 hour comparisons would suggest not enough areas are
expected to reach our lower end threshhold of 108 to warrant new
product and will maintain the SPS through early this evening. There
is still a chance that the Sunday morning assessment will warrant a
Heat Advisory for a part of the area, but will want to defer to the
early morning shift to make that decision.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The H5 level ridge axis is overhead Sunday night but shifts NW to W
TX and into the Red River valley by Monday evening. The H7 winds
become more SEly and precipitable water should begin to rebound. This
could allow temperatures to begin the gradually ease up while the
heat indices remain elevated Monday into Tuesday. A few afternoon
showers and thunderstorms could begin moving into the far southeast
counties as early as Monday with an isolated cell or two getting
close to the I-35 corridor by Tuesday afternoon. The H5 ridge axis
remains shifted west Wednesday but continues to extend an eastward
extention into North Central TX and keeps most of South Central TX
stable. An area of pooled higher precipitable water values over Srn
LA shown in the GFS is also confirmed with mid-level mesoscale
vortiticity pattern in both the GFS and ECM for Wednesday into
Thursday, but neither model is able to bring it west into the deeper
portion of the ridge over Central TX. The overall shape of the ridge
would suggest some weakening toward the latter part of next week, but
deterministic models are to chaotic with the pattern for us to choose
the blended guidances with continued above normal temperatures and
rain chances mainly rooted over the Coastal Prairies.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              79 102  79 101  78 /   0   0   0  -    0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  78 100  78  99  76 /   0   0   0  -    0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77 101  76  99  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            76 100  76  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 105  79 104  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        78 102  78 101  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             76 104  76 102  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        77 101  77 100  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   79 101  79 100  78 /   0  -    0  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78 101  79 100  78 /   0   0   0  10   0
Stinson Muni Airport           79 103  79 101  78 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Platt
Short-Term/Long-Term...Oaks
Public Service/Data Collection...EWilliams


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