Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 102027
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
327 PM CDT Thu Oct 10 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
A warm and windy afternoon is in progress today with temperatures
currently in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Record highs look to be met or
exceeded at Austin Mabry and Austin Bergstrom, with confidence in
record warmth a little lower at San Antonio and Del Rio. However,
temperatures are well above normal across all areas for this time of
the year.

Another warm and breezy evening is in store for all areas. We may
also see a stray shower develop after midnight across the coastal
plains, with dry weather elsewhere. We will see a change in the
weather pattern tonight, especially after midnight, as a strong cold
front moves into the region. Given the strength of the cold front, we
do expect a thin line of convection to develop along the boundary. At
this time, severe thunderstorms are not anticipated. We should also
see some post-frontal showers Friday given favorable isentropic
ascent in the 305-310K layer. Windy conditions are in store for all
areas and we may be close to wind advisory levels over portions of
the southern Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande plains. For now, we have
fairly low confidence in meeting wind advisory criteria and will hold
off on the issuance of an advisory at this time.

It will be much cooler on Friday and most areas will see steady or
slowly falling temperatures in the afternoon. In fact, we may be very
close to record low maximum temperatures at Austin Mabry and Austin
Bergstrom. Please see the climate section for more information.

Precipitation should end fairly quickly Friday night as frontal lift
will be well south of our region. We can`t rule out a few sprinkles
behind the front, but given dry air in the low-levels, we will not
mention anything in the forecast at this time.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Cloud cover looks to linger a little longer than anticipated on
Saturday and with northerly flow in the low-levels we will drop the
high temperature forecast on Saturday. This should keep most areas in
the 60s, except near 70 in the coastal plains.

We will see a warming trend for Sunday through Tuesday, with
temperatures warming back into the upper 80s to mid 90s on Tuesday.
Rain chances will also return on Tuesday as the medium range models
continue to show a scenario where the remnants of a tropical system
in the Eastern Pacific will be pulled into the westerly flow aloft.
In addition, another cold front will move into the region on
Wednesday and this may aid in the development of some scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will drop behind the front on
Wednesday and Thursday, with readings back down closer to
climatological normals.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures for Thursday October 10

Austin Camp Mabry                97
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport    93
Del Rio Intl Airport             97
San Antonio Intl Airport         98

Record Low Maximum Temperatures for Friday October 11

Austin Camp Mabry                59
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport    59
Del Rio Intl Airport             60
San Antonio Intl Airport         59

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              58  59  50  67  56 /  60  60  10  10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  58  58  47  67  55 /  50  60  10  10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     60  61  49  67  55 /  30  60  10  10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            50  57  46  64  53 /  70  40  10  10  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           59  61  54  68  57 /  30  50  10  10  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        51  57  46  65  53 /  70  50  10  10  -
Hondo Muni Airport             66  66  51  70  57 /  20  60  10  10  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        59  60  49  67  54 /  40  60  10  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   68  68  49  68  56 /  20  60  10  10  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       63  63  52  68  58 /  30  60  10  10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           68  68  53  69  59 /  20  60  10  10   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...Oaks
Short-Term/Long-Term...Platt
Public Service/Data Collection...33


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