Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 222226

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
326 PM MST Sun Sep 22 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday through
Wednesday. A few stronger thunderstorms will be possible Monday
afternoon and evening. An unsettled pattern is forecast into next


.DISCUSSION...Another quiet weather day is nearing an end in
Northern Arizona. Temperatures have been seasonable with light
winds making for a very pleasant day across the area.

As advertised, a change in the calm weather is still on track for
Monday. Models have come into far better agreement on a final
track of the cut off low that will deepen to our west and move
across the area Monday. There is still some struggle to decide
where the swath of heaviest precipitation should be. With the
convective nature of the expected thunderstorm and rain
development, a few areas may see higher rainfall totals and areas
of flash flooding. Generally still expect 1-2" of precipitation
possible with locally higher totals where heavier storms develop.

In terms of the severe risk, there is still the possibility of
strong to severe storms south of I-40 in Yavapai and northern Gila
counties tomorrow afternoon and evening. With the strong sheer
profiles and modest instability, it is possible that large hail
and damaging winds may be a threat in these areas. Be sure to check
back in with the forecast tomorrow morning before making your
Monday evening plans.

As the low moves southward into Tuesday and Wednesday, shower and
thunderstorm chances will remain possible along the southern
portion of the area each afternoon. These will be more scattered
in nature.

the upper level low is forecast to be centered near the
southwestern Arizona border on Wednesday making very little
movement through the day. A few showers are possible from
Flagstaff southward. The better chance for additional rain will
come Wednesday night through Thursday as the low opens and lifts
northeast across Arizona. As the core of the low moves overhead,
instability will still promote the chance for thunderstorms.
Temperatures on Thursday will see a good 5 to 10 degree decrease
from the near normal readings on Wednesday.

Models have been very consistent in developing a deep longwave
trough over the western U.S. Friday through next weekend. Stronger
winds and cooler temperatures look nearly certain during this
period. In addition, there will be enough moisture to warrant a low
chance of showers each day.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Look for VFR conditions through
the afternoon and evening with generally light surface winds at
5-15 kts. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop after 17z Mon and continue through the evening. Stronger
storms will be possible from a KFLG to KPAY line south. MVFR/IFR
conditions with gusty and erratic winds possible near
thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, southwest winds
5-10G20KTS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of an
approaching low pressure system Monday afternoon and will continue
through Monday night. Some of these storms may be strong and could
produce heavy rainfall. The most likely areas for wetting rain are
from the Grand Canyon to Show Low southward. Tuesday will see a
shift in winds to the northeast and a continued chance for showers
and storms.

.Wednesday through Friday...Unsettled weather will continue with
the best chance for additional rainfall from Wednesday night through
Thursday. Look for increasing southwest winds Friday into next






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