Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 131724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1025 AM MST Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A strong low pressure system will bring cooler
temperatures and increasing winds through Monday. There is a slight
chances for precipitation on Monday. For the rest of next week,
very warm temperatures along with sunny skies and light winds are


.UPDATE...A deep low pressure center is currently just off the
West Coast north of the Bay Area. This system will begin to fill,
move southeast, split in to two lows tonight through Sunday night,
then merge Sunday night, and them move across Arizona on Monday.
This all will bring cooler daytime temperatures, increasing winds,
and slight chances for showers on Monday. The greatest impact will
be the winds this afternoon and Sunday. Current forecast handles
this well.


.PREV DISCUSSION /423 AM MST/...A low pressure system currently
located off the coast of California will move east in the coming
days. As it does so, south and west winds will strengthen in
northern Arizona and temperatures will cool. There is general
agreement among the model guidance that the 500 mb height minima
will swipe northern Arizona Sunday night into Monday. Conditions
should be favorable enough for a few showers to develop along and
north of the Mogollon Rim as this occurs. However, moisture is
lacking, so little if any accumulations are expected. Temperatures
will be cool enough to facilitate snowfall over the high elevations,
but the strength of the April sun will be enough to assuage daytime
travel concerns. For most, the clouds, virga, cool temperatures, and
wind will be the most memorable part of Monday`s weather.

Winds will generally increase each day through Monday as the
pressure gradient tightens ahead of the incoming system. Today
looks merely breezy, with south and southwest winds gusting 20 to
30 mph in most areas. Tomorrow, southwest winds will gust 25 to 35
mph. Expect a few gusts past 40 mph downslope of the high
terrain. On Monday, southwest and west winds will peak, gusting 30
to 40 mph. Many locations along and downslope of the high terrain
will gust past 40 mph on Monday. We will continue to monitor this
potential; a Wind Advisory may be warranted. As the system passes
to the east by Tuesday, the pressure gradient over northern
Arizona will relax. Much lighter winds are forecast Tuesday
through the end of next week.

As high pressure builds over Arizona following the low pressure
system`s departure, the warmest temperatures of the year so far
are forecast. During the second half of next week, afternoon
temperatures will push 70 degrees along the Mogollon Rim and 90
degrees in the low elevations of Yavapai County. It will certainly
feel like a taste of summer. Stay tuned for updates.


.AVIATION...Saturday 13/18Z through Sunday 14/18Z...VFR conditions.
Mainly daytime S-SW winds 10-20g25-30kts, mainly 5-15kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 14/18Z through Tuesday 16/18Z...VFR conditions. Sfc
winds SW15-25g30-40kts on Sunday, then W-SW10-20g25-35kts on Monday.
ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-SHSN Monday afternoon.


.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Sunday...A few degrees cooler each day
and dry. Windy conditions each afternoon, with southwest winds from
15 to 25 mph and gusts from 30 to 40 mph each day. Highest gusts
will be on Sunday. Winds may not fully decouple tonight. Winds
combined with afternoon minimum relative humidity values of less
than 15 percent may result in areas of near critical fire weather
conditions, mainly east of the I-17 corridor.

Monday through Wednesday...Cooler temperatures Monday with isolated
to scattered showers during the afternoon. Winds Monday turning more
westerly, 15 to 25 mph, with gusts from 30 to 40 mph. Turning warmer
and dry Tuesday and Wednesday, with lighter west through southwest
breezes 10 to 20 mph.






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