348
FXUS65 KFGZ 271716
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1016 AM MST Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions remain today, before cooler
and breezier conditions develop on Friday and continue into early
next week.

&&

.UPDATE...No updates to the forecast package made. Outside of an
isolated shower over the White Mountains this afternoon, things
will be dry and breezy with southwesterly winds increasing to
15 to 25 mph by this afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /422 AM MST/...Today...Yesterday`s shortwave
begins to depart the region, with only a slight change for a
lingering sprinkle across the White Mountains. Otherwise slight
cooler, and breezy southwest winds are expected through the
afternoon today. Winds for most settle overnight as the boundary
layer becomes decoupled, but areas downwind of the terrain may
remain mixed and locally breezy through the overnight. High-clouds
will also begin to increase through the day ahead of a
approaching trough.

Friday and Saturday...The aforementioned trough begins to move into
Arizona on Friday, resulting in a further increase in southwest
winds. Gusts upwards of 30-40 mph seem likely, with some locally
stronger winds just north of the Mogollon Rim into the Little
Colorado River Valley. Winds subside overnight (for most), then
return again during the afternoon hours on Saturday.

Moisture remains fairly limited with this system, but not totally
depleted. There should be enough for some mid-level cloud cover
going into Friday, as well as the potential for some isolated rain
showers and virga across the higher terrain. However, much of the
activity will be high-based and not result in any meaningful
precipitation, if any. NBM guidance hardly shows any chance for
showers, however based on operational guidance and soundings, it
seems worth mentioning at least the chance for sprinkles in the
higher terrain.

Given the recent dry conditions and warmer weather, the combination
of gusty winds and RH values around 10-20% will lead to areas of
near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. The areas most
likely to see elevated fire weather conditions will be across the
eastern portions of Arizona.

Sunday through Wednesday...Temperatures going into next week look to
be around +/-5F of normal as we get into a quasi-zonal flow pattern.
Breezy conditions also look to remain with the storm track largely
in place just to the north over Utah, allowing for us to be brushed
by several shortwave troughs. However, dry conditions look to
prevail going into at least the start of next week.

There is some hope near the middle of next week, with a stronger
trough potentially dipping southward enough to bring some moisture
to northern Arizona. However, model solutions vary greatly on the
exact track and timing, so confidence is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 27/18Z through Friday 28/18Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Southwest winds 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts
through 02Z, diminishing to less than 10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Friday 28/18Z through Sunday 30/18Z...Look for mainly
VFR conditions. Isolated -SHRA north and east of KGCN-KFLG-KRQE
line between 18Z/Friday and 06Z/Saturday. Southwest winds 15-25
kts with gusts 30-40 kts each day with periods of blowing dust
possible in the vicinity of KINW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Above to near normal temperatures
expected through Friday. Isolated showers (>15%) across the White
Mountains this afternoon. Otherwise, dry conditions expected.
Southwest winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph each day. Minimum RH
around 10-25% today and 15-30% on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry and mild. Southwest winds 15-25 mph
with gusts 30-40 mph and minimum RH around 10-25% each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart/Humphreys
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff