Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 280954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
254 AM MST Mon Sep 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...A minor cooling trend and north through northeast
winds will arrive today and Tuesday. A strong high pressure system
will then proceed to deliver above normal temperatures, dry
conditions and light winds for the remainder of the week.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure was centered over Oregon this morning
as a low pressure system and associated cold front continued to
dive southward across the central United States. For today, a
shallow portion of the diving cold front will push across
northern Arizona from the direction of the Four Corners.
Associated with frontal passage, winds will shift to a north to
northeast direction becoming locally gusty, strongest today but
lingering through Tuesday. Look for high temperatures to cool by
about 5 to 10 degrees compared to Sunday from the Mogollon Rim
northward. South of the Mogollon Rim cooling will be minimal due
to the shallow nature of the front and some warming of the
frontal air mass due to subsidence south of the Mogollon Rim.

From Wednesday onward...A strong high pressure system will become
established over the western states. The result will be well
above normal temperatures, light winds and dry conditions
continuing through at least Saturday.


.AVIATION...For the 12Z package...Expect VFR conditions for the 24
hour TAF forecast period. Sfc winds light through 12Z-14Z, becmg NW-
NE10-15kts through 03Z then becoming ENE5-15kts overnight. Gusts to
20kts along and just SW of higher terrain from 12Z-18Z this morning.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER... A dry cold front will produce cool temperatures and
a wind shift to the north-northeast today. Starting Tuesday, high
pressure begins to build once again, with warming temperatures.
Lighter north-northeast winds continue Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...High pressure building back over the
region will lead to continued dry weather, with well above normal
temperatures for the remainder of the week.






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