Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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FXUS65 KFGZ 172102

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
205 PM MST Tue Jul 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Expect a good chance of afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms for the rest of the week and into next weekend.
The greatest coverage and highest potential for stronger storms will
be over portions of Coconino and Yavapai counties.


.DISCUSSION...Deep moisture and marginal instability will continue
to be the rule through Thursday, with the highest moisture values
southwest of the Mogollon Rim. Higher shear values today may start
to overcome the slow start, due to earlier debris cloud cover and
rain-cooled air. Wednesday should be a bit more active, barring any
complex development tonight.

Steering flow will remain easterly through Thursday, before turning
more southerly late this week and into the weekend. This will likely
keep deeper moisture into at least the western and central portions
of the CWA, while pushing storm activity back farther north.

By late in the weekend and early next week, models suggest some
strengthening of the mid-level high and an intrusion of drier air
from the north. We anticipate some decrease in activity during this
time frame, but a complete stoppage is unlikely.


.AVIATION...For the 00Z package...Expect sct-nmrs shra/tsra and
isold +tsra through 02Z-04Z, decreasing activity after 04Z. The
strongest storms will produce localized MVFR/IFR conditions. More of
the same developing again aft 18Z Wednesday. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect scattered to numerous afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. Storm motion will
generally be east to west, with portions of Coconino and Yavapai
counties likley seeing the most activity.

Friday through Sunday...Flow becomes more southerly during this
period, ensuring that deep moisture remains in at least the western
and central zones. Some minor drying may develop Sunday as flow
turns northerly heading into early next week.






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