Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
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885 FXUS63 KDLH 042358 AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Duluth MN 658 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dense fog expected over much of western Lake Superior into this evening. - A line of showers and storms along and ahead of a cold front will gradually move eastward this evening and will weaken with time tonight. Rainfall amounts of a 1-2 inches, with isolated 3 inch amounts remain possible with the strongest storms. - Some storms will be strong to severe with hail of pea to half dollar coin size and wind gusts of 40 to 60 mph. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected once again each afternoon and evening Wednesday through early next week. Rainfall amounts mid-week into the weekend will be lighter than what is expected today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 445 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Surface low pressure stretched from Saskatchewan southeast through southern Manitoba and into Minnesota and western Iowa with a center along the north central South Dakota and North Dakota border. Water vapor imagery depicted an upper low over the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border and a second lobe of vorticity over southwest Wisconsin. The upper trough will continue to propagate east tonight. A cold front will propagate eastward across the Northland tonight and Wednesday morning. A warm and moist airmass will precede the cold front tonight with PWAT values rising to 1.6" and surface dewpoints will climb into the mid-sixties with a few spots as high as the upper sixties. MLCAPE values are expected to climb to 1000-2500 J/kg ahead of the front. Deep southerly flow ahead of the front will be in place and was aiding in drawing moisture north. Deep layer shear will be from 25 to 30 knots ahead of the front to 35 knots very close to it. There will be a severe threat, especially for cells close to the front where the shear is greatest. Forecast soundings show decent low level curvature in the hodographs but with a messier appearance above. Given the stronger forcing with the front and upper trough, storm mode will be a broken line of discrete storms with stratiform rain closer to and behind the front. The CAPE and shear profiles support hail from penny to half dollar size. There will also be a wind threat, especially as storm mode changes to more linear. Given the deep layer winds, 2-7 km, and 0-6 km shear vectors are all parallel or nearly parallel to the front today, heavy rain will be another threat. Storm motions will have a south to north component within the west to east line movement. This will lead to some training and with the higher moisture, flooding may result. The heavy rain that fell 36-48 hours ago over portions of the Northland will have soils primed. The HREF is showing the heavy rain threat with some pockets in the LPMM to 3" and some larger areas of 1-2". We expanded the Flood Watch to now include Cass, Itasca, and northern Aitkin counties to account for this potential. The main window for severe will roughly be before 9 pm, guidance is in fairly good agreement on this. The SPC outlook for severe storms for much of our area is a 2 out of 5. The upper trough will be over the region Wednesday through Thursday and cooler temperatures will move in. The cooler temperatures aloft and upper low will keep chances for showers going through Thursday but they will be most widespread Wednesday. Chances will be greatest during the afternoon and evening hours during and just after peak heating. The rainfall Wednesday/Thursday will be much lighter than what is expected today and tonight. A western upper ridge does build late week into the weekend but the Northland remains close to the upper low and we carry chances for showers and a few thunderstorms in spots into early next week. Rainfall amounts will be relatively light. Highs late week into early next week will be near normal. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 657 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 An area of showers and storms with heavy rain and gusty winds is slowly moving across the terminals as of issuance time. Where the stronger storms pass, expect a period of MVFR ceilings and IFR visibilities. DLH is the exception, with the marine layer causing pea soup fog with VLIFR conditions immediately ahead of stronger storms moving into the terminal. Once the storms move past, conditions should improve to match more what the nearby terminals are experiencing. KHYR is in a gap at the moment, but storms should move back into the vicinity by 02z. This area of storms will gradually shift to the east tonight, with at least the MN terminals returning to VFR conditions by 06z. KHYR may remain MVFR for longer, not returning to VFR until 12z. Westerly winds will slowly increase after 15z, with afternoon winds gusting 20 to 25 knots for most locations. There should also be some scattered showers and storms that form Wednesday afternoon and have included some VCTS groups for the afternoon. && .MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/... Issued at 445 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Fog, dense in spots, will persist tonight over portions of the western Lake Superior. Easterly winds will continue tonight and then turn westerly as a cold front moves through overnight. The wind switch should aid in ending the dense fog threat. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the front as well and some of the storms could be strong to severe with large hail and winds to 45 knots possible. Westerly winds on Wednesday will be strongest from Silver Bay to the Twin Ports to Port Wing and some gusts of 20 to 25 knots will be possible. Westerly winds will increase further on Thursday with widespread speeds of 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 30 knots. Hazardous conditions will occur, especially for smaller vessels and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed. For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt. && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for MNZ018-025-026- 033>036. Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for MNZ037. Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for MNZ038. WI...Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM CDT this evening for WIZ001. Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for WIZ001>004-006>009. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140>146- 150. && $$ DISCUSSION...Huyck AVIATION...LE MARINE...Huyck