853
FXUS65 KPUB 040510
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1110 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very unlikely (<10%) chance for a severe storm over Kiowa County
  during the overnight tonight.

- Slightly cooler temperatures tomorrow, but still hot!

- Mostly dry conditions with well above seasonal temperatures expected
  through the end of the work week.

- Rain shower and thunderstorm chances increase toward the end of the
  work week into next week.

- Increasing flows in area streams and rivers with expected enhanced
  runoff of high mountain snowpack.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

A weak trough aloft will pass over the region this afternoon through
the evening, the response will be isolated weak showers and
thunderstorms over the mountains. The relatively weak cold front
associated with the surface trough will push over the plains during
the overnight, providing the potential for a rogue thunderstorm over
Kiowa County. Data suggests around 1500 J/kg of CAPE over the region
as the trough passes by, but there is a Saturday cap in place with
CIN values around 300 J/kg - which is consistent amongst most
guidance. If, and that is a strong if, the CIN is lower and the lift
can break the cap, I believe there is severe risk for a few hours in
the early morning over Kiowa County. However, I do not think that
will happen so I did not include that in the forecast.

It will be slightly cooler tomorrow in response to the trough
passage with high temperatures in the 80s to low 90s over the
plains, the 70s to low 80s over the mountain valleys, and the 60s to
70s over Lake and Teller Counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

Upper level ridging remains progged to build across the Rockies into the
end of the week, allowing for hot and mainly dry conditions to prevail
across south central and southeast Colorado. Highs through the end of the
work week will warm to well above seasonal levels in the mid 80s to upper
90s across the plains, with highs in the 70s and 80s expected across the
mountain valleys and mainly in the 60s and 70s across the higher terrain.
Overnight lows will also be at or above seasonal levels, with lows staying
above the freezing mark leading to enhanced melting of the high  mountain
snowpack, and some increased flows in area streams, especially across the
upper Arkansas River basin where snowpack remains above normal.

By Friday and continuing into early next week, latest model data continues
to support a retrograding ridge as passing waves down the backside of the
ridge across the Northern Rockies, develops a long wave trough across the
Upper Midwest into the Central Conus into next week. This will allow for
available moisture to increase across the region, and will in turn lead to
increasing chances of daily showers and thunderstorms areawide through the
weekend and into early next week. With the increased moisture and expected
increase in showers and storms, temperatures will decrease as well, though
look to remain at to slightly above seasonal levels into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1107 PM MDT Mon Jun 3 2024

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours at all three terminals.
Passing mid and high clouds will continue through Tuesday
afternoon, clearing by Tuesday evening.  Mozley

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKELLY
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOZLEY