000
FXUS65 KPUB 161021
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS BACA COUNTY
BRINGING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL OVER FAR SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  THERE
HAVE ALSO BEEN A FEW ECHOES OVER PROWERS AND EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY
BUT ARE NOT AMOUNTING TO TOO MUCH.  EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUE
EAST CLEARING THE PLAINS BY SUNRISE.  A WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE I-25
CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING.  MOISTURE HAS ALSO MOVED IN BEHIND THIS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

TODAY...MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  MODELS ALL
DEVELOP A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND VORT MAX OVER NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO
BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK IT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING.  MODELS ALL DEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE BY 18Z...WITH DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EAST THROUGH 20Z OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE.  THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE MAY BE
THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE...BOTH NSSL AND LOCAL WRFS INDICATING SPARSE
COVERAGE COMPARED TO THE COARSER RESOLUTION MODELS.  HAVE A FEELING
CELLS BE AT LEAST BE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS THEY SHIFT EAST OFF THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.  MAIN THREATS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS TO NEAR 50 MPH.  EXPECT CONVECTION TO SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS BY 00Z.  THE POTENTIAL EXIST
FOR THESE STORMS TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY MOVE EAST AND
ENCOUNTER DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE INSTABILITY.  DAMAGING WINDS
ALONG WITH HAIL TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER EASTERN KIOWA...PROWERS AND BACA COUNTIES.  THE NSSL WRF IS
INDICATING ONLY WEAK UPDRAFT HELICITY VALUES WITH INDIVIDUAL STORM
CORES...WHICH MAY INDICATE ONLY WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS...AND LIMIT
SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST INTO WESTERN
KANSAS THROUGH 06Z.  THE SEVERE POTENTIAL OVER THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS WILL END AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND THE MAIN
WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE AREA.  MODELS HAVE PRECIPITATION ENDING
BY 06Z AND HAVE FOLLOWED THIS PROGRESSION.  EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
THIS WILL BRING NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND POOL MOISTURE IN THE LOW
LEVELS BY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE PLAINS.  OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY BE SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
MOZLEY


.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

...ROUNDS OF STORMS...SEVERAL SEVERE...ON THE PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...THEN RETURN TO RED FLAG CONDITIONS REGIONWIDE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...

WE WILL LIKELY SEE A COUPLE OF DAYS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
PLAINS THIS PERIOD. BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY HAVE CLASSIC CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS ON THE PLAINS...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
UPSLOPE FLOW AND MODEST DEEP SHEAR. CAPE VALUES ARE FCST TO BE MORE
THAN SUFFICIENT...1500 J/KG...AND SHEAR WILL BE ABOUT 40 KNTS. AS
EXPECTED...BOTH DAYS ARE OUTLOOKED ON THE SPC WEBPAGE. THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL PROBABLY MAKE AS FAR WEST AS THE I-25 CORRIDOR. OF THE
TWO DAYS...TUESDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE THE MOST SIGINFICANT DAY
AS THE LEFT FRONT QUAD OF A SUBTROPICAL JET MOVING ALONG THE CO/NM
BORDER WILL BE OVER THE REGION...AND THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TO
UPSLOPE ALONG WITH ENHANCING TH UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELDS OVER
THE PLAINS.

THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MONDAY
AND TUESDAY...AND UNFORTUNATELY THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DRY
SIDE. ALTHOUGH I DO NOT SEE ABUNDANT DRY THUNDERSTORMS...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE ENOUGH CG ACTIVITY TO CAUSE NEW FIRE STARTS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE SAN JUANS WHERE IT HAS BEE ABNORMALLY DRY.

FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND IT LOOKS VERY DRY...HOT AND BREEZY
OVER THE ENTIRE DISTRICT. AS I HAVE THE GRIDDS DRAWN UP...RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE DISTRICT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

KALS...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE EAST ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL FROM 18-02Z THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WITH ANY
NEARBY THUNDERSTORMS.

KCOS...VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE REGION BY LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...FROM 19-02Z.  THE TERMINAL WILL
LIKELY SEE THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER HEAD WITH REDUCED CIGS AND
LOWERED VIS AS CORES PASS CREATING MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS.  GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.  VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.

KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE OFF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND PASS IN THE VICINITY OF
KPUB BETWEEN 20-00Z.  REDUCED VIS AND CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
CORES THAT PASS OVER THE TERMINAL.  GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MOZLEY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT SUN JUN 16 2013

METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS FOR EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR ARE LIKELY
WEDNESDAY...THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT. MARGINAL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SAN
JUANS TUESDAY. PLEASE SEE THE FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
PRODUCT...DENFWFPUB...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOZLEY
FIRE WEATHER...HODANISH