Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210929
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
329 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Currently...Radar imagery was indicating a cold front dropping south
across the Palmer Divide as of 3 am, while winds ahead of the front
along the I-25 corridor at sites such as KCOS and KPUB were strongly
gusting out of the west at 40-50 mph. A few light showers were
showing up over Northern El Paso County with frontal passage, but
these will likely be short-lived.

Today...An upper low pressure trough sweeping east across the
Rockies is pushing a cold front south across the eastern plains this
morning. This will produce strong and gusty winds across the eastern
mts and plains into this aftn, and a definite cooldown in temps as
colder air filters in today and tonight. The cold front is expected
to move through Colorado Springs early this morning, then continue
south through Pueblo and La Junta around 6 am, then Trinidad around
8 am. Ahead of the front winds will be strong and out of the west
with gusts of 40-50 mph probable. as the front passes through, winds
will swing around quickly to a north to northeast direction and the
cold temperatures will be noticeable. Any showers that do develop
with the front should be isolated at best and short-lived. Temps
today are forecast to only climb to highs in the 50s to lower 60s,
and at some locations along the southern border the high temp may be
realized this morning.

Tonight...The upper trough axis passes to the east of Colorado this
evening, with cool and dry northwest flow aloft settling in. Look
for mostly clear skies and very cold conditions, with low temps
overnight dropping to freezing or below freezing for most locations.
Moore

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

...Guidance trending colder and wetter (whiter?) for late in the
period...

Guidance is trending to a more winter-like pattern for late in the
week as a significant trough is expected to develop over the
intermountain west. There is still disagreement on the extent of
this trough but it will likely be getting colder with an increasing
chance of precip, with the possibility of snow for the lower
elevations.

In the meantime, weather from Sunday through Wednesday will likely
be dry and rather mild. A cool front will come across the region
Monday night and this will knock temps down into the 60s lower
elevations, but the rest of the days should see generally 70s across
the plains.

All of the longer range guidance shows a strong trough dropping down
in the NW flow region late in the week. The EC is very aggressive
with this trough, developing a closed mid lvl circulation over the 4
corners by Friday evening. The other guidance, GFS and Canadian,
have a more progressive trough moving through the region Thu nite
into early Friday. For now, I started to trend the fcst a bit
colder, cloudier and wetter for late in the week, but not nearly as
cold or wet as the EC guidance indicates. If the EC should verify,
it will likely get very cold (lows in teens Sat) for early next
weekend, along with the chance of snow for the plains. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 321 AM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Cold front dropping south across the eastern CO plains this morning
should reach KCOS around 10z, then KPUB by 12z and continue moving
south. Ahead of the front, expect strong gusty west winds of 40-50
mph. With frontal passage, sfc winds will swing around to a N-NE
direction  and gust to 30 mph before lessening through the aftn and
early eve. Otherwise, some light snow showers over the central mts
through about midday and VFR conditions forecast elsewhere. VFR
conditions for all areas tonight. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MOORE



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