Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210039
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
639 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO ADJUST FOR NR TERM TRENDS. LOOKS LIKE A FEW
ISOLD SHOWERS/TS COULD HANG ON OVER THE MTS AND ERN PLAINS THIS
EVE...BUT TREND IS DOWNWARD AND COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL SO HAVE
DROPPED MOST OF THE POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT FOR TONIGHT. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPR LEVEL LOW IS SITTING ALONG THE SRN CA COAST TODAY AND IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WV SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOWING DRIER AIR HAS WORKED IT WAY INTO WRN CO TODAY.  HRRR AND RAP
SHOWING MAINLY ISOLD PCPN COVERAGE THIS EVENING OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ISOLATED TO SCT COVERAGE OVR
THE ERN MTS AND SERN PLAINS.  A WEAK BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE PALMER DVD AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN WORK ITS WAY
SOUTH. THIS BOUNDARY MAY HELP KICK OFF ADDITIONAL CONVECTION.  THERE
COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OR TSTMS OVR THE SERN PLAINS...BUT
THINK THAT MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD END BY 06Z.

ON THU...IT DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT MOIST OVR THE FORECAST AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OVR WRN AREAS ARE FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR
TO TODAY...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS OVR ERN AREAS.  AS A RESULT THE
FORECAST MODELS SHOW MAINLY ISOLD TO SCT POPS OVR THE MTNS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS OVR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  HIGH TEMPS FOR THU SHOULD BE AROUND AVERAGE IN THE HIGH
VALLEYS...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS OVR THE SERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING WITH THE GFS COMING INTO
LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM SOLUTIONS. ENSEMBLES ARE STILL
DISPLAYING QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS A HIGHER THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY IN A FORECAST
SOLUTION.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO
EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY. EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ONGOING THURSDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAINS...WITH PERHAPS A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS OVER THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE INTERESTING. THE UPPER DISTURBANCE
OVER ARIZONA WILL EJECT ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
MODELS QUICK TO ADVECT MOISTURE NORTH ACROSS COLORADO...AND SHEAR
LOOKS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS OR SO BY THE AFTERNOON WITH
MODEST INSTABILITY. EXPECT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
MID MORNING FRIDAY ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND SPREADING
EAST INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL QPF
FIELDS ARE INDICATING THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS OVER THE
PALMER DIVIDE. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AREA BURN SCARS
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ALL ACTIVITY EXITING INTO KANSAS BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A PRETTY QUIET DAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
COLORADO GIVEN SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER SYSTEM. A
COUPLE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE
MINIMAL.

A BROAD TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF MORE DISTURBANCES MOVING
ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO. THE NEXT ONE LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER UPTICK IN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE STATE...WITH ACTIVITY STARTING
OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE SUNDAY MORNING AND SPREADING EAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...TURNING LOW LEVEL
FLOW UPSLOPE...WHICH WILL LIKELY AID PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MODELS A BIT DIFFERENT ON THE ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE
DROPPING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WITH GFS HAS BEEN BRINGING IT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...WITH THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER ON
TUESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF DECENT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE MOUNTAINS...AND SPREADING EAST INTO THE
PLAINS SOMETIME IN THE MONDAY TO TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM
LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD HELP
THE PLAINS SEE ANOTHER SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED AUG 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
VCNTY OF KCOS EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE
VCNTY OF KPUB AND KALS.  THE MAIN THREATS WITH TSTMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS.  ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOME TSTMS ARE EXPECTED OVR THE HYR
TRRN AND ONE OR TWO COULD MAKE IT INTO THE VCNTY OF KCOS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...28



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