Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161730
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1030 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 356 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

...Pacific Storm with Wind and Mountain Snow Headed this Way...

A Pacific storm system currently pounding northern California with
wind, rain and snow is headed this way.  As it approaches today,
winds will begin to ramp up over the area.  Gusts nearing 50 mph
will be possible in the high country by late in the day, with gusts
to around 30 mph reaching down to some of the lower elevations.
Precipitation doesn`t quite reach the forecast area today.  Clouds
will start to increase through the afternoon but the day will
otherwise be unseasonably warm for mid November with afternoon highs
generally 15-20 degrees above average.

Tonight, the storm system will continue to advance toward colorado.
Precipitation will be slow to get going in the high country. It will
start to show up around midnight but it probably won`t really get
going until closer to morning.  It should be snowing and blowing
through the Continental Divide Passes (including Wolf Creek, Monarch
and Fremont) by sunrise.  Accumulations will just be getting started
with 2 to 4 inches possible by that time.  The bulk of the snow will
come Friday and Friday evening. For the eastern mountains, scattered
snow showers will develop overnight with local accumulations up to
an inch possible by sunup Friday.  Gusts nearing 50 mph at times
will result in areas of blowing snow and poor visibilities in
the mountains where the snow begins to fly.

Over the lower elevations, no precipitation expected through sunrise
Friday but the winds will be on the increase.  Gusts to near 40 mph
will be possible in some of the wind prone areas near the mountains.
This includes areas west of I-25 across El Paso County and also the
I-25 corridor south of Pueblo.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 356 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

Main concern during the long term period will be the sensible
weather issues during the beginning of this period, Friday and
Friday night. During this time a potent quick moving shortwave will
be moving through, and it will bring snow and wind to the mountains
(especially the central mtns) along with winds over the remainder of
the region. The rest of of the forecast looks pretty tranquil.

Friday...

Wind driven snow will be ongoing across the contdvd, especially the
central mountain region. West winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 50
mph will be likely along with steady snow. The snow over the central
mountains will likely last all day and will likely increase in
intensity as the afternoon progresses. For the sw mtns, snow will
likely decrease as the afternoon progresses. Snow and rains showers
will be possible over the remainder of the higher terrain.

Winds will be strong in the mountains, especially the southern mtns
as strong jet moves across.

Over the plains. it will be warm and windy. Anticipate highs in the
70s to possibly 80F over the far eastern plains. Winds may reach
high wind criteria over the southern mtns and adjacent plains,
especially in the Spanish Peaks/Raton Mesa region. Shear profiles do
not favor a mtn wave episode as positive shear is noted, however an
inversion is in place. For the most part, this appears to be a more
"brute force" wind event over the southern tier of the cwa.

Friday night a bora wind event will move across the plains and have
bumped up winds across the plains. Strongest winds attm appear to be
generally east of a line from Calhan to La junta. I would not be too
surprised if later shifts bump these winds up higher than what is
currently in the NDFD wind gridds. We may also see some showers move
across parts of the plains, mainly along and N of highway 50 Friday
evening. Some snow squally weather may occur on the Palmer Divide
Friday evening bringing a brief period of heavy snow. I cant rule
out a quick inch or two of snow for this region, although no signif
accumulations are in the gridds across N El Paso county attm.

Snow will also continue across the central mtns Friday evening but
will decrease as the night progresses.

Overall, the central mountains should do quite well with this event
with 10 to 20 inch amounts not out of the question. Lesser amounts
will fall over the sw mtns, with light amounts over the Sangres and
Pikes Peak.

Saturday...

Except for some straggling snow showers Sat morning, it should be
dry across the CWA. It will be quite chilly on this day but winds by
late morning should be nil, and overall it will not be all that bad
of a day. Lots of Sun, but cool.

Sunday into next week....

Not much in the way of sensible weather during this period. Ridge
builds over the region for the most part, although we will see a
disturbance or two move across the region, especially around Tuesday
and late in the week. These systems could bring slightly cooler
weather back to the region along with some snow showers along the
contdvd. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1025 AM MST Thu Nov 16 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites over the next 24 hours
with main concern being wind and potential for wind shear at KCOS
starting tonight. For today, all three terminals should see a
period of breezy southwest to westerly winds with gusts to around
20-25 kts at times. KCOS will have the most variable winds today
as the westerly component aloft will put the airport in the wind
shadow of Pikes Peak for a portion of the day. However a period
of gusty southwest winds is still expected in the afternoon. Winds
will decrease this evening but could become intermittently breezy
overnight as west winds aloft increase. Kept winds more
southwesterly at KCOS overnight taking cues from guidance, however
if surface winds pull around from the east to southeast there
could be some wind shear concerns after during the late evening
and overnight hours before southwest winds mix down late Friday
morning. Otherwise should see SN BLSN spread into the Continental
Divide late tonight with widespread IFR to LIFR conditions by
morning over the southwest and central mountains. -KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Saturday for COZ059-063-066.

Winter Storm Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM MST
Saturday for COZ058-060-061-068.

High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
COZ087-088-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...KT


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