Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 190956
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 AM MDT TUE JUL 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Currently...Monsoon moisture continues to stream up across the 4
Corners and into Colorado, and a few showers linger along the
CONTDVD this morning. Temps have remained very mild this morning,
with most locations in the 60s to around 70 F as of 330 am.

Today and Tonight...Very little change in the overall weather
pattern expected over the next 24 hrs, as an upper ridge of high
pressure remains over the central US. This will keep Colorado on the
western side of the ridge, with monsoon moisture continuing to
stream into the western half of the state. Lingering showers this
morning indicates plenty of available moisture, so convection is
expected to fire up in earnest once again by midday over the higher
terrain, then slowly move off across the adjacent plains through the
aftn. Thunderstorms will be scattered to likely over the mts, and
isolated across the SLV and I-25 corridor. At this time it does not
look like storms will track far enough east across the SE corner of
the state. Another hot day on tap as well, with max temps in the
90s to around 100 F for the plains, and 80s to around 90 F for the
high valleys. Moore


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

Not much change through the extended either with modest draw of
monsoon moisture in southwest flow continuing across Colorado.
This will lead to daily chances for thunderstorms over the
mountains...some of which will linger into the overnight hours.
Southeast plains will see at least isolated thunderstorms each
day...with temperatures heating back up again through late week
with readings approaching 100 across the far eastern plains. With
convective cloud cover expected each afternoon...this may serve to
keep afternoon temperatures along the I-25 corridor tempered
somewhat. Thursday looks like the best shot of hitting 100
degrees at Pueblo. Layer specific humidities really don`t change
all that much from day to day over the mountains...so locally
heavy rainfall along with some small hail...gusty outflow
winds...and lightning will be the primary threats.

An upper trof moves across the northern U.S Rockies Friday
night...sending a cold front through SE Colorado Friday night into
Saturday morning. This will increase chances for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over the weekend for the plains as
higher dew points return in easterly upslope flow. Both CAPE and
shear increase so we could be dealing with a marginal threat for
severe weather on the plains one or both of these days...depending
on the magnitude of these parameters.

Extended models hint at some drying for early next week. GFS shows
more westerly flow which allows layer specific humidities to drop
out west across the mountains...though there will still be enough
moisture for isolated thunderstorms. ECMWF begins to pump up the
upper ridge across the western U.S on Tuesday and sends another
front through the southeast plains during the new day 8 period.
GFS keeps flow more westerly. Temperatures should get knocked
back down into the mid 80s to lower 90s across the plains for the
weekend...though suspect they will trend back upwards to above
climo early next week per extended model blends. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 335 AM MDT Tue Jul 19 2016

VFR conditions are expected across the area for the next 24 hrs,
including the three main taf sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Isolated
storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain by midday,
then move towards the TAF sites between 19z and 20z. Potential
hazards with any storms that do develop will be gusty erratic
outflow winds to 50 mph, hail up to 1/2 inch in diameter and periods
of heavy rain. Moore

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE


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