Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 052125
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
325 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

...FRONT TO BRING COOLER WEATHER WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE
SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY...

UPPER DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY ROUNDING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS WESTERN/NRN CO THIS AFTERNOON.  WITH PRECIP WATERS RUNNING
OVER 120-160% OF NORMAL...MAIN CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL
BE POTENTIAL FLOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
CONTDVD.  ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
HELPING TO MIX OUT LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS...AND SUSPECT THEY WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.  SO AS DISTURBANCE ROUNDS THROUGH RIDGE THROUGH NORTHERN
CO...THIS WILL SEND A ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO
THE ADJACENT PLAINS.  FORCING APPEARS A BIT STRONGER TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND SUSPECT MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THOSE AREAS.  HRRR AND OTHER HIGH RES MODELS
SEEM TO PICK UP ON THIS.  AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF THE
MOUNTAINS...EXPECT GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO SPREAD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN A
GUST FRONT FROM CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN CO WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BRINGING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS.  THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS AFTER 06Z.  WINDS COULD GUST UP TO 30-
35 MPH AT TIMES BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.  MODELS STILL
DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH GFS STILL THE MORE HEAVY HANDED OF THE MODELS.  MAJORITY
OF THE HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DONE BY
MIDNIGHT...THOUGH HARD TO ARGUE WITH KEEPING AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TO ACCOUNT FOR ACTIVE MONSOON
PLUME OUT WEST...AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/-
TSRA ACROSS THE PLAINS ALONG/BEHIND THE FRONT. MAJORITY OF THE
PARAMETERS TO SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM/MCS
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA.

MONDAY MORNING SHOULD START TO SEE STRATUS DEVELOP AND SPREAD INTO
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS OUT OF THE EAST BY AFTERNOON...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS IN THE AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BACK ACROSS NV
APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY.  PRECIP WATERS FALL OFF A BIT IN BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT...SO PERHAPS
A LITTLE LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OUT THAT WAY.
MEANWHILE...SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS COULD SEE UP TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OF
CAPE BY AFTERNOON AS EASTERLY FLOW KEEPS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S.
DEEP LAYER SHEARS WILL BE AROUND 30-35 KTS...SO ASSUMING WE CAN
REALIZE THE INSTABILITY...THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR ONE OR TWO
STRONG STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A POSSIBILITY.
HOWEVER CHALLENGE WILL BE IF STRATUS DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS ALONG THE
LOWER EASTERN SLOPES...THEN STRONGER CONVECTION MAY STAY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD OVER STABLE
AIRMASS...AND DIMINISHING.  VARIOUS MODELS DIFFER ON THIS SCENARIO.
WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN AREAS...WITH PLAINS LOOKING
MORE CAPPED.  MAIN CONCERN TOMORROW WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS AND
LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF I-25.  BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. -KT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CONTINUING ALONG AND
WEST OF I-25 THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE MODELS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME
CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS EAST OF THE INTERSTATE
OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY IS VERY LIMITED AND WOULD EXPECT MOST
PRECIP TO REMAIN CLOSER TO THE MOUNTAINS WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS/WEAK TSRA FARTHER EAST. ON TUESDAY...MUCH THE SAME SET-UP
AS MONDAY...WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WHILE AGAIN LACK OF INSTABILITY ON THE PLAINS WILL MEAN
ONLY SOME WEAK CONVECTION EAST OF I-25. MAX TEMPS WILL CREEP BACK
UPWARD SLIGHTLY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SLY...THOUGH MOST
AREAS WILL AGAIN SEE MAXES WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WED AND
THU...WHILE MID LEVEL FLOW STAYS S-SW AS UPPER LOW MOVES ONSHORE
ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND UPPER HIGH IS FAIRLY FAR EAST OVER THE GULF
COAST. INSTABILITY RETURNS TO THE PLAINS BY WED AFTERNOON AS CAPES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE 1000 J/KG...AND WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH SERVING
AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS...EXPECT AN UPTURN IN CONVECTION ACROSS
EASTERN ZONES BOTH WED/THU. MOUNTAINS WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF
USUAL AFTERNOON/EVENING TSRA CYCLE AS WELL...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS ALL AREAS AS MID LEVEL WINDS INCREASE. MAX
TEMPS WILL CONTINUE THEIR SLOW UPWARD CRAWL...WITH READINGS BACK
TOWARD SEASONAL AVERAGES BY THU AFTERNOON.

FRI-SUN PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK DRIER/WARMER AS WESTERN UPPER LOW
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND FLAT WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER COLORADO.
PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST MONSOON MOISTURE TAP WILL STAY SUPPRESSED TO
OUR SOUTH...THOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE MAY KEEP AT LEAST ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL
CLIMB BACK INTO THE 80S/90S LOWER ELEVATIONS...NOT TOO HOT BY MID
JULY STANDARDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

KCOS AND KPUB...

A BOUNDARY IS STILL EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH BETWEEN 21-23Z BRINGING A
PERIOD OF NORTHERLY GUSTY WINDS UP TO 35 KT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
VCTS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS OF
-TSRA FOR THE TAF SITES. COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION STARTING AROUND 06Z. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH WINDS GUSTING UP TO
30 KT. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP STARTING AROUND 1300Z
AS A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. AT THIS TIME...THE
STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO BURN OFF AROUND 17-18Z MONDAY MORNING.

KALS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. BRIEF PERIODS OF
GUSTY WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. LUKINBEAL

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...AEL



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