Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211630
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1030 AM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 AM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Updated to take down Winter Weather Advisory for the Central
mountains. Area of wrap around precipitation will spread
southeastward across the northeast third to half of the forecast
area today as the upper low pulls away to the east. Pikes Peak
would be most likely to pick up some more snowfall through this
evening...but showers are pretty quick moving which should limit
accumulations somewhat. Another 2-4 inches across the summit of
Pikes Peak will be possible through the evening but since this is
sub advisory level...will take down all the advisories. -KT


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

...April Showers to Continue with Chilly Temperatures Tonight...

Nice spring pattern across southern Colorado with rounds of showers
and thunderstorms moving across.  This event has been favoring the
central/eastern mountains and plains and will continue to do so.
This is unfortunate for the San Luis Valley and southwestern
mountain areas that could also use the moisture.

Morning satellite imagery shows a negative tilt upper trough
crossing the Continental Divide as we speak.  Lift ahead of this
trough has been spawning the showers through the night.  Models
indicate the trough axis will shift east of the I-25 corridor early
this morning, bringing a decline in the shower activity along and
west of the corridor.  However, showers will continue over the far
eastern plains into the early afternoon as the trough axis is not
slated to move through that area until then.  As stated earlier,
showers over the San Luis Valley and southwest mountains will be
pretty spotty, unfortunately.  As the afternoon gets underway and
instability increases, there should be redevelopment of showers
along and near the east slopes of the mountains out onto the I-25
corridor.  This should bring a second round of showers to much of
this area this afternoon into this evening.

A check of web cams around the area show some very wet snow falling
down to 7265 feet from a location 2 miles south to southeast of
Black Forest.  However, the level of accumulating snow on natural
surfaces seems to be about 8000 feet, with Woodland Park cams
showing a couple inches of wet snow accumulation on the grass.
Higher up, a snow stake up on Cheyenne Mountain at 9440 feet is
showing about 7 inches of accumulation.  The snow stake from Monarch
Ski area is showing about 2 inches.  Cripple Creek area cameras are
also showing a couple inches of accumulation, even on the roads at
their elevation, close to 9500 feet.  Expect snow levels will be
possible above about 6500-7000 feet early this morning and then
gradually rise to mainly above 8000 feet as the day progresses.  Any
accumulations above the snow level up to about 10000 feet should be
pretty light, generally only 1-3 inches, mainly on natural surfaces.
Pikes Peak itself could see another 5-10 inches before the storm is
winds down late tonight.

Will have to watch for a possible frost across parts of the area by
Saturday morning.  Guidance is indicating temperatures dropping to
near freezing over parts of the plains.  If we clear out, that is
entirely possible.  Young, frost-sensitive plants would need
protection.  However, there will be clouds around much of the night.
Not sure if they will clear out by morning.  Also, could be dealing
with some patchy fog by early Saturday if skies clear.  Will let day
shift make the call on the need for frost highlights and/or fog in
the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

Saturday and Sunday...Sat morning the upper low system is expected
to be in eastern Kansas, with wraparound residual energy continuing
to squeeze out some lingering showers over the higher terrain
through the day. By Sat evening upper level ridging is forecast to
move in, providing for dry and warmer conditions the remainder of
Sat night and through Sunday. Cool temps Sat with highs in the 50s
for the plains and around 60F for the San Luis Valley, and then much
warmer on Sun with high temps in the 70s for most locations.

Monday and Tuesday...Models indicate a couple of fast-moving
shortwaves will cross the northern Rockies on Mon and Tue, with the
Tue feature dipping a little further south. This will bring a return
of showers to the mts for Mon, and to all of the forecast area on
Tue. Look for max temps in the 70s for the high valleys, and 70s to
lower 80s for the plains on Mon. Temps will then cool a bit for Tue
due to a cold front Mon night, with highs in the 60s and 70s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Models disagree on the finer points by mid-
week, but are consistent in showing a deepening low pressure trough
with an associated closed low somewhere over the western US. The low
will approach Colorado on Thu. This should bring increased cloud
cover and cooler temps, as well as pcpn for the entire forecast area
both days. Max temps in the 60s and 70s on Wed will give way to 50s
and 60s by Thu. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 422 AM MDT Fri Apr 21 2017

A spring storm system will bring scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms to central/eastern mountains and plains through this
evening.  Just a spotty shower or thunderstorm will be possible over
the San Luis Valley and southwest mountains.  Pilots can expect
areas of MVFR to LIFR flight conditions associated with the showers.
This includes both the KCOS and KPUB TAF sites.  KALS, on the other
hand, will likely remain VFR, with shower activity likely missing
the terminal.  There may be brief improvement in conditions at KCOS
and KPUB this morning through about 18Z as a lull in shower activity
moves through.  However, showers are expected to redevelop at both
sites 18-21Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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