Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200528
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1128 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Isolated showers/tstms are expected through the evening hours.  With
mid to upper 50 dew points over the far southeast CO plains, CAPE
values are 2000+ J/kg, although shear is under 30 kts.  However,
this area should have the best chance of seeing stronger storms.  At
this time, it looks like showers/tstms should end by midnight across
the area.  The forecast models are showing a lot of high level cloud
cover moving over the far southern areas late tonight, and then
spreading northward through Sun morning.  Thus, will increase the
cloud cover.

On Sun, it looks like showers/tstms will hold off until around noon,
but will increase across the mountains and nearby areas through the
afternoon.  At this time it looks like the southeast plains will
remain dry, but the NAM shows some pcpn developing acrs eastern Las
Animas county in the late afternoon.  Temps will again be above
average acrs the southeast plains, with highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s.  The San Luis Valley and Upper Arkansas River valley
should see highs in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Active weather is expected through the middle part of the work
week with thunderstorms and widespread precipitation possible.

Sunday night and Monday...a weak area of low pressure is forecast
to hang out along the southern California coast while high
pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. This will begin to pump
moisture northward across Colorado. Expect a showers and
thunderstorms to be ongoing Sunday evening across the mountain
areas, spreading into the Plains overnight before dissipating
Monday morning. There may be some locally heavy rainfall with
stronger cells. On Monday, similar conditions are forecast with
another round of mountain showers and thunderstorms by the
afternoon hours. This activity will once again spread east into
the Plains through Monday evening. Locally heavy rainfall will
likely be possible again with stronger cells. As for eclipse
viewing across Southern Colorado, expected mid and high level
cloud cover through the morning hours (45-60% coverage) which will
likely limit viewing for most of the region.

Tuesday through Thursday...several upper disturbances are forecast
to move northward out of the Desert Southwest across Colorado.
This will combine with a cold front on Tuesday which will force
low level flow to become upslope across the Plains. This will set
the stage for widespread showers and thunderstorms across all of
southern Colorado beginning Tuesday afternoon. Expect initial
development over the mountains, which will spread east across the
Plains through the overnight hours. Locally heavy rainfall and
increased risk for flash flooding are possible, especially on area
burn scars. Very similar conditions are forecast for Wednesday and
Thursday with continued disturbances moving across Colorado out of
the Desert Southwest and low level upslope. This will also help
keep temperatures down a bit, with highs expected through this
period in the lower to mid 80s across the Plains.

Friday and Saturday...there is a lot of uncertainty heading into
next weekend with the forecast evolution. Earlier GFS runs were
bringing drier air into the region by Friday with more limited
shower and thunderstorm chances. But the latest solution this
afternoon has quite a bit more activity across Southern Colorado.
Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1126 PM MDT Sat Aug 19 2017

VFR conditions are anticipated during the next 24 hours at all 3
taf sites; KPUB, KALS and KCOS. Winds will generally be light and
diurnally driven.

The best chance of a passing -tsra tomorrow afternoon will be
over KALS. Although a -TSRA could occur at KPUB and KCOS, the
chances are too low attm to explicitly mention in the TAF fcst
product.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH



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