Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 200217
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
717 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 715 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

REINITIALIZED FRONT END GRIDS WITH LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE OVER COLORADO TODAY AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FLOW
FLATTENS SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY SATURDAY
AS A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. NONE OF THESE WAVES APPEAR STRONG ENOUGH OR MOIST ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE MUCH PRECIP OVER COLORADO THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SEASONABLY COLD MOST LOCATIONS...AND
AS HIGH MOUNTAINS VALLEYS DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...SOME PATCHY
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIO
GRANDE NEAR ALAMOSA. ON SATURDAY...VERY LIGHT WINDS AND WEAK LEE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP MIXING LIMITED...WITH HIGH  TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING JUST A FEW DEGREES FROM FRIDAY`S READINGS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF
COLORADO...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF RAIN AND
SNOW FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE MOVING ACROSS COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE WEST COAST WORKS
TO AMPLIFY THE FLOW NORTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND WILL
SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTH ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY SUNDAY
MORNING. MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH AN INCH OR TWO
EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF
THE WEST COAST WHILE THE SHORTWAVE THAT PASSED OVERHEAD SATURDAY
NIGHT STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE
SOUTHERN COLORADO UNDER STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO DROP OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND ACROSS COLORADO THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL ARRIVE ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN SNOWFALL OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SNOW WILL LIKELY BE HEAVY AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ACROSS THE
PLAINS...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON WHERE AND HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL ALONG THE FRONT. GIVEN THE NORTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
FRONT...THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE PRECIPITATION
FIELDS. IT FAVORS THE PALMER DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OUT WARM ON MONDAY...SO MOST AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY
START OUT AS RAIN BEFORE TURNING TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. THE NAM IS A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH A MORE NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
AND DEVELOPS A DECENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED...AND POPS
ADJUSTED AS CONFIDENCE IN THE PLAINS FORECAST GROWS.

A SECONDARY DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW GOING
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...SOUTH INTO THE LA GARITA RANGE INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH THIS SECONDARY DISTURBANCE. LACK OF
MOISTURE WILL LIKELY KEEP ANY SNOWFALL TO A MINIMUM ACROSS THE
PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. AS FAR AS SNOWFALL TOTALS...THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WHERE 1 TO 2
FEET ARE POSSIBLE...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGH
VALLEYS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTH OVER THE LA
GARITA AND SAN JUAN RANGES...AROUND 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OFF THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST WILL PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE WEST
COAST ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE DIGGING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE WAS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH THE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS LATE
THURSDAY...BUT THE 12Z GFS HAS DECIDED TO CHANGE. GIVEN THE
CONSISTENT ECMWF...FOLLOWED ITS GUIDANCE FOR NOW WHICH ALSO HAS
SUPPORT FROM MOST OF THE ENSEMBLES.

EXPECT A DRY DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AN ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWER ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGS
SOUTH ON THURSDAY...SNOW WILL LIKELY PICK UP ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW INTO FRIDAY. THERE IS MUCH LESS
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION.
A LOTS DEPENDS ON STORM TRACK AND LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW. THE CURRENT
ECMWF SOLUTION HITS THE TYPICAL NORTH WIND AREAS OF THE PALMER
DIVIDE...EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR. IF THE
TRACK TRENDS SOUTH...IT WOULD MEAN A BETTER CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY FOR SNOW FOR THE PLAINS. THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN MUCH
FURTHER NORTH WITH A GLANCING BLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...WITH A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. TIME
WILL TELL HOW THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK...AND WHERE/HOW MUCH SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KPUB AND KCOS THE NEXT 24 HRS WITH
LIGHT WINDS. AT KALS...STATISTICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SAT
MORNING...WITH LIFR CIGS/VIS 12Z-16Z THEN CLEARING 16Z-18Z. OVER
THE MOUNTAINS...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP LATE SAT
AFTERNOON OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME OF THE HIGHER
PEAKS NORTH OF MONARCH PASS OBSCURED AFTER 20Z.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
FOR COZ058-060.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...PETERSEN


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