Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 220554
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1154 PM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Upper wave lifting very slowly into N-Central Colorado this
afternoon, with best coverage of tsra extending from the central
mountains north and west toward the WY border. Suspect weak
subsidence behind the wave has been suppressing activity over much
of Southern Colorado so far today, with rather paltry crop of
convection across the area as of 21z. For the remainder of the
afternoon into the evening, expect isolated to scattered convection
across the region, with best coverage of storms over the central
mountains closer to departing wave. Was initially rather skeptical
of precip chances on the plains this evening, but weak area of
surface moisture convergence south of the Arkansas River has forced
a few storms, with activity likely lifting slowly northward until
sunset. Overall, lowered pops somewhat over the mountains for the
evening, but nudged chances up slightly on the plains to account for
ongoing activity. Should see most storms end 03z-06z, with perhaps a
couple showers lingering 06z-09z over the Central Mountains.

On Friday...center of the upper ridge expands slightly westward into
NM, with flow aloft across CO taking on a more wly component through
the day. Moisture levels across the area remain relatively
unchanged, and with weak upper wave continuing to slowly drift
across Nrn Colorado, suspect best coverage of afternoon tsra will
again be over the Central Mountains, with more isolated activity
farther south. Overall, pop forecast looks very similar to today`s,
with only a few minor differences noted. Max temps also look
generally unchanged, with readings most locations ending up a couple
degf warmer than blended guidance, especially across the lower
Arkansas Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

Not much change to the forecast through the extended period with
active weather expected through early next week.

Friday night...showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing across
the mountains Friday evening, transitioning into the plains before
dissipating overnight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with
stronger cells along with lightning. A cold front is forecast to
drop south out of the northern plains late Friday night into
northern Colorado.

Saturday through Monday...the cold front will drop south across
the eastern Colorado plains on Saturday morning with moist low
level upslope flow developing by the afternoon. Aloft, high
pressure will be forced south across the desert southwest with
westerly zonal flow forced across Colorado. Several waves of
embedded energy will transition across the state through Monday
leading active weather across the region.

Expect shower and thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon
over the mountains, with activity spreading east across the plains
during the evening hours. Modest instability and weak shear may
allow for a storm or two to become strong with hail and gusty
outflow winds possible. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible,
especially over the eastern mountains.

The upper pattern will remain similar on Sunday with continued
moisture advection into the plains under low level easterly flow.
Convection will once again fire over the mountains by the early
afternoon, spreading east across the plains through the evening.
Models are indicating a bit better instability and shear across
the region, with one or two strong to severe thunderstorms
possible across the plains. Locally heavy rainfall will be
possible over the eastern mountains, east into the I-25 corridor
on Sunday.

By Monday, the upper pattern will begin to transition with high
pressure over the desert southwest beginning to rebuild northward.
A reinforcing cold front from the north will help keep our plains
sufficiently moist for another round of widespread showers and
thunderstorms across the region. Initial development will be over
the mountains, spread east across the plains. Energy in the flow
aloft will help keep the shear modest with one or two strong
storms possible.

Afternoon highs will be slightly cooler during this period. High
temperatures will top out in the lower to mid 90s for much of the
plains.

Tuesday through Thursday...high pressure will continue to build
northward across the Great Basin into the Colorado Rockies. This
will transition upper level flow northerly and force monsoonal
moisture west away from Colorado. Showers and thunderstorms will
become increasingly diurnal and terrain driven. Expect the most
activity on Tuesday, with thunderstorms over the mountains,
tracking east into the plains during the evening. Weaker steering
flow, lack of upper level support, and less moisture will lead to
just isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains for Wednesday and Thursday. Afternoon highs will once
again warm back up into the upper 90s to near 100.  Mozley

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1151 PM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

A few light rain showers were noted over the region late this
afternoon. these showers should decrease during the early morning
hours. For tomorrow...scattered thunderstorms once again will
occur across the region...and any of the taf sites may see some
tsra tomorrow afternoon. Overall...all taf sites will generally
vfr conditions during the next 24h...with brief mvfr due to the
passing thunder.

&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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