236
FXUS65 KPUB 190535
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1135 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

...Fire Weather Main Concern...

Currently...

Except for a few high based cumulus clouds here and there, skies
were clear across the region. Temperatures were mild across the area
with mostly 80s across the plains , with 60s in the valleys. Winds
across the region were fairly light, but some gap winds were noted
down near the Walsenburg region. Winds were also beginning to pick
up across the mtn tops.

Tonight...

Clear skies are expected tonight across the region and temps will
fall into the U40s and 50s across the plains and 30s and 40s
valleys. Main concern will be winds picking up across the higher
elevations, with some breezy conditions picking up across the north
side of the Raton Mesa on the plains. Gusts to 35 to  40 mph will be
likely at mtn top by morning.

Tuesday...

A RED FLAG warning has been issued for the parts of the region,
mainly the plains and Teller and Fremont counties. Winds by tomorrow
afternoon over the plains will be in the 20 to 30 mph range with
higher gusts in locations, especially on top of the divides. Pueblo
proper may see the least amount of wind tomorrow while the mtns will
be gusting to 50 mph. With humidity values in the single digits and
gusty winds and temps in the U80s and 90s, conditions will be
favorable for extreme fire behavior if a fire were to start. PLEASE
DO NOT BURN TOMORROW! Otherwise, dry conditions across the entire
region with unseasonably warm temps.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 334 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Primary longer term meteorological issues are temperatures,
winds, localized elevated fire weather concerns at times as
well as the potential for increasing unsettled and cooler
conditions from late week into early next week as next storm
system impacts the forecast district.

Initially, dry southwesterly upper flow will allow dry conditions
in combination with mild to warm temperatures and gusty winds at
times to be noted over the forecast district from Tuesday evening
into Thursday. Warmest temperatures during this time-frame should
be realized Thursday with localized elevated fire weather concerns
also anticipated Thursday afternoon. In addition, the highest
potential for stronger winds during the Tuesday evening into
Thursday time-frame should be noted Tuesday night and then again
from Wednesday night into Thursday.

Meteorological focus then shifts to the amount of impact that
projected upper storm system will provide the forecast district
from Friday into early next week. At this time, will paint
unsettled conditions at times during this time-frame(in the form
of stronger to marginally severe thunderstorms at times...favoring
eastern sections, cooling temperatures...especially by early next
week as well as higher terrain snow potential and stronger winds
at times). Please stay tuned for updates to our forecast as the
week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1132 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Dry westerly flow across the flight area over the next 24 hours.
VFR expected all areas, including the KCOS, KPUB and KALS
terminals.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ221-222-
226>237.

&&

$$

AVIATION...LW