000
FXUS65 KPUB 130046
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
646 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

UPDATED THE AFD TO CORRECT THE LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION.
FIRST STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

A LITTLE PINCHED ON TIME.  STORM ON TRACK TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY FROM LATER SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  RECENT
MODEL TIMINGS ARE A LITTLE LATER WITH THINGS.  IN ANY EVENT...LOTS
OF PRECIPITATION HEADED OUR WAY...EVENTUALLY SNOW ALL AREAS BY
TOMORROW EVENING.  COULD START AS RAIN BRIEFLY AS PRECIP BEGINS
TOMORROW...BUT THEN SHOULD TURN TO SNOW QUICKLY BEHIND FROPA.

EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE SHOULD DO BEST...WITH 8 TO 16
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND 5 TO 10 INCHES ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE.

BELOW ABOUT 6500 FEET...2 TO 5 INCHES OUGHT TO COVER IT DUE TO
INITIAL WARM GROUND/AIR TEMPS.  FOR LOWER AREAS...THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF FREMONT AS WELL AS LAS ANIMAS AND BACA COUNTIES WILL
PROBABLY ALSO SEE ADVISORY SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON UP NORTH...SHIFTING
TO THE SOUTH FOR SUNDAY EVENING.

ALSO...UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BASICALLY
INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS
VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. LW

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

...HEAVY SNOW FOR SUNDAY EVENING...
...MORE WINTER TO ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

A SIGNIFICANT SPRING SNOWFALL IS ON TRACK FOR SUNDAY EVENING.
TIMING DIFFERENCES APPEAR TO BE RESOLVED FOR THE STORM...WHICH
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SERN CO IN THE SUN NIGHT TIME FRAME. IT
APPEARS THAT THE BULK OF THE QPF WILL FALL FROM 00Z MON THROUGH
06Z MON...THEN TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SUN
NIGHT. MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE DONE BY
12Z MONDAY. TEMPS FALL DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUN
EVE...PLUMMETING TO MINUS 14 DEGREES C AT H7 OVER THE I-25
CORRIDOR BY 12Z MONDAY. SO IF THERE IS ANY RAIN TO START OFF...IT
WILL RAPIDLY TURN TO ALL SNOW BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST. LIMITING
FACTOR FOR ACCUMS WILL NOT BE THE CHANGEOVER...BUT THE WARM
SURFACES...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE IMPACT ON THE ROADWAYS TO
SOME EXTENT. BUT SLUSHY ROADS WILL BE PROBLEMATIC...AND COULD ICE
OVER BY THE MON MORNING COMMUTE.

MAIN QUESTION AT THIS POINT IS HOW VEERED THE WINDS WILL BE IN THE
LOW-MID LEVELS. THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER AND MORE FAVORABLE WITH
WINDS...AND WOULD CONSEQUENTLY GIVE HIGHER SNOW TOTALS AND LIQUID TO
THE PARCHED PLAINS. SHIFT TO MORE NRLY WINDS LATER IN THE EVENING
WILL LIMIT ACCUMS FOR PUEBLO AND SRN EL PASO COUNTIES. HAVE BUMPED
UP SNOW TOTALS SLIGHTLY FOR THE KPUB AREA...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES
EXPECTED FOR THE AREA. HIGHER TOTALS FOR THE NRN AND WRN SECTIONS
FOR SPRINGS...AND WRN AND SRN PORTIONS OF PUEBLO COUNTY. PIKES
PEAK...WETS...AND NRN SANGRES CONTINUE TO LOOK LIKE THE BIG WINNERS
IN THIS EVENT...WITH OVER A FOOT OF SNOW LIKELY FOR THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

TYPICAL OF APRIL...THE COLD AND WET WX WONT STICK AROUND TOO
LONG...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH ON
MONDAY. RESIDUAL SNOW COVER FOR THE HIGHER TRRN WILL LIKELY KEEP
HIGH TEMPS ON MON CONSIDERABLY BELOW GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...BY TUE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL MELT AS H7 TEMPS CLIMB TO 4 DEG C OR HIGHER
WITH WRLY FLOW INCREASING ALOFT. COULD SEE UPPER 60S OVER THE
PLAINS BY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER STORM IS ON TRACK TO AFFECT OUR AREA WED INTO THURSDAY.
STILL SEEING CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES WITH THE STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED...AND
WOULD ONCE AGAIN BRING SIGNIFICANT QPF TO SERN CO...AGAIN MUCH OF
WHICH WOULD BE SNOW AS H7 TEMPS FALL TO MINUS 12 OR SO BEHIND
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT. THE ECWMWF IS WEAKER BUT WOULD STILL
BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO AT LEAST MUCH OF THE MT AREAS. THE
MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FAVOR AN EVEN DEEPER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM THAN THE OPERATIONAL 12Z GFS. GIVEN THE RECENT
PATTERN SHIFT...SUSPECT THAT STRONGER IS THE WAY TO GO WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO HAVE CAUTIOUSLY RAISED POPS FOR THE MID TO LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK. WINTER IS NOT DONE WITH US YET! ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

STRONG SPRING STORM HEADED TOWARD FLIGHT AREA. WARM SECTOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THIS
EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THEN...OVERNIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE
PLAINS...WITH A NEW ROUND OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND HIGHER MOUNTAIN AREAS BY
MORNING.  THE BIG SHOW WITH THIS STORM WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS EVERYTHING DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...WIDESPREAD BRIEF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/THEN SNOW WILL SPREAD
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS
SUNDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION...MORE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE...ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ALSO...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MIXED IN TOMORROW AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS AS WELL AS THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO CLOSE IN ON WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR...FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. LW

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ058>061-063-066-068.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ072-073-079-080.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ077-078-083-087.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ088-094-099.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ076-081-082-084.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 3 AM MDT MONDAY FOR
COZ074-075.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT MDT SUNDAY
NIGHT FOR COZ085.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STARK
SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...LW