Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 240924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

...Warming Today...

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis is indicating
moderating northwesterly flow aloft across the region, with a broad
upper trough across the Central Conus and a high amplitude ridge
building across the Great Basin and Northern Tier into Central
Manitoba at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating an
upper trough digging into the Pacific Northwest at this time. GOES-
16 imagery indicating generally clear skies across the region with
current temperatures in the 30s and 40s across the area early this

No big changes in current forecast, with flow aloft becoming more
westerly through tonight, as the Pacific Northwest system continues
to translate across the Northern Tier. This will allow for breezy
westerly winds to develop over and near the higher terrain through
the day, and persist over the higher terrain tonight. Warming aloft
under the building ridge will lead to much warmer temperatures
across the area, with highs in the 70s to lower 80s expected across
the lower elevations and mainly in the 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain. Overnight lows are also expected to be warmer than today,
with lows in the 40s and 50s across eastern plains and in the 30s
and 40s across the higher terrain. Mostly sunny skies are expected
through the morning, with mid and upper level moisture associated
with the Pac NW system slowly increasing across the area through the
afternoon and evening. Models have slowed timing of wave ejecting
from the Pac NW system, though can`t rule out a few showers
developing across the Central Mountains into early Thursday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

On Thu a broad upper level trof will be over the northern Rockies
and the northern plains states, resulting in westerly flow over CO.
Afternoon showers/tstms are expected Thu, mainly over the
Continental Dvd and areas north of highway 50. High temps Thu will
be above average. In the evening hours a front is expected to move
thru the southeast plains, bringing northeast winds and potentially
increasing chances for pcpn along the sern mtns and over the plains.
By late night, most if not all pcpn should end.

Fri an upper level trof is expected to move into WY and nrn UT. Sfc
high pressure ovr NE is expected to result in south to southeast sfc
winds over eastern CO, while western winds will continue over the
mtns and high valleys.  Once again, areas mainly north of highway 50
will be favored for afternoon and evening pcpn, with mainly just
some isold pcpn along the Continental Dvd. Temps will be a little
cooler on Fri.

Sat and Sat night an upper level trof will be moving over CO, and
Sat is still looking like there will be more widespread pcpn,
especially over the eastern mtns and plains.  Temps will be even
cooler on Sat, and are expected to be about 5-10 degrees below

Northwest flow aloft is expected over the area Sun and Mon as a
large upper trof moves through the plains states and into the
Midwest and an upper ridge sits over the western states.  There will
be enough mstr and instability over the area for mainly afternoon
and evening showers/tstms these days.  High temps will continue to
be a little below average.

Tue a sfc front is expected to move into sern CO, bringing low level
upslope flow.  Otherwise, an upper ridge wl remain over the Great
Basin.  There should be another round of afternoon and evening
showers/tstms, mostly over the mtns and high valleys, with maybe
just some isold pcpn over the sern plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 323 AM MDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours, as upper level ridging builds across the state.



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