000
FXUS65 KPUB 161048
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
448 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Upper level circulation which has wandered around srn CO the past
few days was centered near La Junta early this morning, with
persistent area of showers and thunderstorms lingering over the
eastern plains through much of the night. Expect this convection to
begin to fade toward sunrise, though will still carry some low pops
for the far east until mid-morning. While models take plains
circulation north and east of the area by late afternoon, their
track record of being too quick to move the system eastward the past
few days suggests a slower movement, which would keep higher precip
chances and threat of heavy rainfall in place over the far southeast
plains for another day. Over the mountains, moisture continues to
decrease slowly, but it will still be plentiful enough for sct tsra,
though coverage will decrease versus the past few days. I-25
corridor may stay relatively free of convection until late afternoon
or early this evening, then HRRR and NAM suggest at least isolated
tsra over the Pikes Peaks region dropping south along/west of I-25
after 00z. Max temps today will creep upward slightly from
yesterday`s readings, though most locations will remain a little
below average. Storms then fade/shift east toward KS by midnight,
with slow clearing areawide.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Monday-Wednesday...Upper high progged to build across the
state with latest models continuing to indicate slightly drier air
working into the area, especially across eastern Colorado. This will
allow for a lull in convection across the eastern plains, though
can`t totally rule out a few afternoon storms, as convective temps
are reached. Further west, there looks to be enough moisture to work
with strong summer solar heating for scattered afternoon and evening
storms across the mountains and high mountain valleys.  Weak
steering flow aloft will lead to slow movement of storms and bring
the potential for locally heavy rainfall, and the possiblity of
flash flooding, mainly over and near area burn scars. Warm air aloft
under the high will lead to temperatures warming back to at and
above seasonal levels.

Thursday-Saturday...A slow uptick in convection expected across the
area as monsoonal moisture is expected to increase within developing
southerly flow aloft, as high pressure aloft builds back across the
southern high plains and into the Southern Rockies. Again, stayed
stayed close to blended model pops, with isolated to scattered,
mainly afternoon and evening, showers and storms through the period,
with the best coverage over the higher terrain. Temperatures to
remain near seasonal levels.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 448 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

At KALS...VFR conditions expected today and tonight. Will include a
VCTS mention from 20z-02z as tsra again form over the mountains
after 18z, then drift across the San Luis Valley later in the
afternoon.

At KCOS...Area of LIFR cigs/vis in stratus and fog has developed
over the terminal early this morning, with GOES-16 fog product and
local obs suggesting a slow expansion of stratus since 08z. HRRR and
NAM show low level winds become more W-NW with time early this
morning, and winds near the mountains and Palmer Divide have already
taken on at least a minor wly component as of 0930z. This suggests
lower cigs and fog should begin to clear 12z-15z, though with weak
flow it will be a rather gradual process. Most convection will
remain over the mountains this afternoon, with a low chance for a
storm to drift toward the terminal 23z-02z.

At KPUB...VFR conditions expected today and tonight. Expect most
convection today to remain near the mountains until at least 00z,
with perhaps a small window for tsra 00z-04z as storms drift toward
the plains.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...PETERSEN