


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO
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955 FXUS65 KPUB 092031 AFDPUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pueblo CO 231 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions expected for portions of the area Thursday, with another hot day combined with increasing winds. - Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday, then daily afternoon and evening showers and storms expected through the forecast period. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Issued at 204 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Currently...A very hot and dry day across south central and southeast CO, with some high-based over the mts creating intermittent gusty winds. Temps as of 2 PM have climbed into the 80s to near 90F for the high valleys, and 90s to around 100F for the plains. Tonight...Very hot conditions continue this evening, and the Heat Advisory remains in place until 8 PM, when temperatures are forecast to finally drop below 100F for all areas. The ridge of high pressure overhead will start to flatten this evening as an approaching upper disturbance crosses the Intermountain West and pushes into the Great Basin. Isolated to low-end scattered showers are expected to develop along the Continental Divide late tonight as this disturbance nears, and winds will gradually increase overnight. Plan on a very mild, and for some "stuffy", night tonight with overnight lows in the 50s for the high valleys, and 60s to near 70F for the plains. Thursday...The upper disturbance continues east tomorrow, crossing the Rockies through midday. Another hot day is on tap for the area, and combined with increasing winds and receptive fuels prompted the upgrading of the Fire Weather Watch for western areas to a Red Flag Warning. This is a somewhat tricky forecast, since the passing wave will produce a better chance for shower activity which could elevate humidity levels. However, as the wave passes east there will be very dry air on the back end of it, rapidly dropping RH levels back down. Feel that this is a marginal event with respect to Red Flag criteria, but there remains enough risk to warrant the upgrade. Farther east, the passing wave will push a cold front south across the Palmer Divide and the eastern plains. Increasing moisture behind the front combined with shifting surface flow will lead to increasing rain and storm probabilities starting around 11 AM or noon and lasting into the late evening. SPC has painted an area for Marginal severe threat back along the eastern mts and I-25 Corridor, and a Slight severe threat for Kiowa, Bent, Prowers and Baca counties. Given available LLVL moisture, CAPE sitting at around 1400 j/kg and dramatically increasing bulk shear, the potential exists for a few strong to severe storms developing across the plains through the aftn. After a warm start, max temps tomorrow are expected to quickly warm into the 80s to around 90F for the high valleys, and 90-100F for the plains. Moore && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 331 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Thursday Night - Tuesday: For the long term period, active weather is expected each day for portions of south central and southeastern Colorado. Flow over the region will vary from westerly to northerly during this period in response to a ridge of high pressure across the southwestern US. While no major forcing is expected, this pattern will allow for persistent orographic forcing, along with brief periods of enhanced forcing along frontal surges. With some forcing in place, and moisture still present, daily isolated and scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are anticipated. The greatest coverage of showers and storms is expected to remain along the higher terrain where forcing will be maximized. Along with that, a strong storm or two can`t be ruled out, particularly across the plains, with frequent lightning, gusty outflow winds, small hail, and brief periods of heavy rain the most likely hazards from any stronger storms. Beyond all of that, winds are expected to remain breezy through early next week, with increased cloud cover each afternoon and evening. Looking at temperatures, the later part of the week and start of the weekend will be the coolest and around and slightly below seasonal values thanks to a couple of cold front passages. Then for the end of the weekend and early part of next week, temperatures are expected to rebound, with values warming to near and slightly above seasonal values. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1124 AM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VFR conditions anticipated across the forecast area over the next 24 hours, including the three main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS. Very isolated high-based convection over mt peaks will produce gusty outflow to 40 kts, but are not expected to affect terminals. && .PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Thursday for COZ220-223- 224. Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for COZ083>086. && $$ SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...SIMCOE AVIATION...MOORE