000
FXUS65 KPUB 102144
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
344 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

...WINDY AND TURNING COLDER TOMORROW...

CURRENTLY...VERY WARM OUTSIDE WITH TEMPS NOW HITTING THE MID 70S
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE PLAINS. TEMPS ARE BEING BOOSTED BY GUSTY
W WINDS. WAVE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED SOMEWHAT ALONG THE SRN FRONT
RANGE...BUT SHOULD REDEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND
SLOWLY SPREAD OVER THE ERN PLAINS TONIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS AS EVIDENCED BY NEGATIVE DEW POINTS HERE AT KPUB THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY BELOW MODEL GUIDANCE...SO HAVE
LOWERED RH IN THE GRIDS E OF THE MTS FOR AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIOD. SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MILD OVERNIGHT.

GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS NOW ON TOMORROWS COLD FRONT. LATEST GUIDANCE
HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY FOR PRECIP TOMORROW COMPARED TO WHAT HAD
BEEN PROGGED A DAY OR TWO AGO. NOW LOOKS LIKE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW POTENTIAL...GENERALLY OVER THE PALMER DVD...TELLER COUNTY...AND
THE SANGRES/WETS TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO SEE A COUPLE INCHES
OF SNOW OVER LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
LOOKS TO BE BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z...OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS SO
LITTLE QPF BEING PROGGED THAT IT LOOKS LIKE IMPACT WILL BE
MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH ONE CANNOT RULE OUT A QUICK BURST OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE DVD IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME BRIEF TRAVEL ISSUES DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. SPEAKING OF WINDS...THAT LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN FEATURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. WILL SEE A PERIOD OF GUSTY N WINDS IN
THE 18Z THROUGH 00Z TIME FRAME TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SPREAD
TO THE SE DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND COULD GUST IN THE 40-45 KT
RANGE AT TIMES. THIS IS NOT QUITE IN THE HIGH WIND RANGE...BUT COULD
CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED PROBLEMS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS THAT DID NOT SEE
MUCH RECENT PRECIP...WHERE THERE COULD BE A BLOWING DUST PROBLEM.

WITH THE LATER TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD REALIZE TEMPS IN THE MID
50S OVER THE PLAINS TOMORROW...BUT THAT WILL DROP SHARPLY IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON AS H7 TEMPS PLUMMET TO MINUS 12-14 BEHIND THE FRONT.
PRECIP N OF HWY 50 SHOULD WIND DOWN BY LATE AFTERNOON BUT WILL
LINGER OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND SPANISH PEAKS REGION. THE SERN MTS
MAY SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW BY TUE EVENING...BUT THIS EVENT
LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY BARK (WIND) AND LITTLE BITE (SNOW). ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

TUE EVENING THE UPR TROF WL CONTINUE SINKING SOUTH OVR THE STATE
WITH PART OF THE TROF MOVING OFF THE THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...AND
ANOTHER PIECE OF IT CLOSING OFF A LOW OVR SRN UT.  SNOW CHANCES WL
QUICKLY DECREASE AND END OVER THE AREA TUE NIGHT.  IN THE EVENING
THERE WL PROBABLY BE SOME HIGH CHANCES FOR SNOW OVR THE
MTNS...ESPECIALLY THE ERN MTS AND ALONG THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR
THE MTNS...AND OVR THE SRN I-25 CORRIDOR AND SRN BORDER AREA WHERE
UPSLOPE FLOW WL BE BEST. BY THEN BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT THERE MAY JUST BE
SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE SW MTNS AND THE SRN SANGRE
DE CRISTOS.  IT SHOULD STILL BE A BIT WINDY FROM THE NORTH OVR ERN
AREAS IN THE EARLY EVENING...BUT THEN THE WINDS WL DECREASE.

ON WED THE FORECAST AREA WL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS THAT UPR LOW ENDS
UP BEING CENTERED OVR THE SRN TIP OF NV.  THE WX WL BE DRY ON WED
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE SWRN MTS. HIGH
TEMPS WED WL GENERALLY BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. ON THU
THE UPR LOW BEGINS MOVING EASTWARD AND BECOMES AN OPEN WAVE...ALTHOUGH
THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE HOW FAST THIS WL HAPPEN.  THE GFS HAS IT
MOVING ACRS NRN NM THU NIGHT AND INTO THE OK AND TX PANHANDLES BY
FRI MORNING.  THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND HAS IT MOVING ACRS NM THRU THE
DAY FRI.  AS THE SYSTEM MOVES ACRS NM THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT PCPN
TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS ON BOTH THU AND FRI
LOOK TO BE FAIRLY WARM AND SO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE SOME
RAIN...WHILE THE HIGH ELEVATIONS SEE SOME SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A QUICK MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACRS THE AREA ON SAT. THE GFS IS MAINLY DRY AS THIS MOVES
ACRS THE AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME PCPN.
AN UPR RIDGE THEN BUILDS OVR THE AREA FOR SUN RESULTING IN DRY
WEATHER.  THE GFS KEEPS AN UPR RIDGE AND DRY WEATHER OVR THE AREA
FOR MON...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS AN UPR TROF WORKING ITS WAY SOUTH
AND EAST...BRINGING CHANCES FOR PCPN ESPECIALLY TO NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 342 PM MDT MON MAR 10 2014

AS MENTIONED IN EARLIER DISCUSSION...THE STRONG W WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH EXPECTED MDT TB E OF
THE RAMPARTS AND SANGRES THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS
TOMORROW WILL BE FROM 18-00Z AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COULD
SEE SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS FROM 40-45 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE
VFR EXPECTED. LOCALIZED RESTRICTIONS TO VIS/CIG WILL OCCUR WITH SCT
SHRASN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ROSE


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ROSE