000
FXUS65 KPUB 160253
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
853 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO BETTER REFELCT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

UPDATED SHORT TERM FORECASTS TO BETTER REFELCT CURRENT CONDITIONS. LW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

EXPECTED UPTURN IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY/UPWARD MOTION HAVE ALL INCREASED
VERSUS 24 HOURS AGO. LOW LEVELS...ESPECIALLY ON THE PLAINS...REMAIN
RELATIVELY DRY...AND WITH LACK OF MUCH IF ANY WIND SHEAR...MOST
STORMS HAVE BEEN RATHER WEAK AND SHORT LIVED. PLENTIFUL OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AROUND THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...PLUS INCREASE IN
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW OVER THE MOUNTAINS EVIDENT IN REGIONAL RADAR
LOOP ARGUE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
ISOLATED MENTION OVER THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE AVOIDED
THE WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR SO FAR TODAY...BUT WITH LAPS STILL
SHOWING SOME 400-800 J/KG CAPE ALONG I-25...SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
BRIEF POP-UP TSRA INTO THE EVENING. MOST STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING...THOUGH WITH UPPER
TROUGH MOVING OVERHEAD...A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER TOWARD MIDNIGHT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. ON THURSDAY...UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH
SLOWLY EASTWARD...REACHING THE KS BORDER BY LATE AFTERNOON.
STRENGTHENING WLY FLOW ALONG/BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS WILL BRING IN
MUCH DRIER AIR TO MANY LOCATIONS...LIMITING CONVECTION TO JUST A FEW
HIGH BASED TSRA OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS. DID LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN
PLACE ALONG THE KS BORDER AS WELL...AND IF DRYLINE IS SLOWER TO MIX
EAST THAN MODELS PROG...MAY BE SOME LOW POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS AS SHEAR INCREASES. RETURN TO WLY FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
WARMER MAX TEMPS MOST AREAS...AND NUDGED UP CONSENSUS GUIDANCE A
DEGREE OR TWO IN SPOTS...MAINLY OVER THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH DROPS DOWN ACROSS
CA AND NV THU NIGHT/EARLY FRI...PRODUCING DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS
THE 4 CORNERS AND PUSHING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE OUT OF THE CWA. LOOK
FOR PLENTY OF SUN WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS. THU NIGHT ISOLATED
CONVECTION SHOULD WIND DOWN SOON AFTER SUNSET...THEN MODELS AHVE
BEEN HINTING AT SOME ENHANCED LLVL MOISTURE CREEPING BACK INTO THE
FAR EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS DAYBREAK FRI. PREVIOUS
SHIFT INTRODUCED MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT WITH STRONGER SFC WINDS SOMEWHAT LACKING...DO NOT
FEEL A FIRE WX HIGHLIGHT IS NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE UPPER TROUGH ON SAT
EVEN MORE SO AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN ALONG
THE CONTDVD SOME TIME IN THE LATE MORNING. MEANWHILE...HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING S-SW SFC WINDS COULD MEAN CRITICAL FIRE
WX CONDITIONS. FOR THE TIME BEING...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA MIGHT MEET CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON
ISSUING ANY SORT OF HIGHLIGHT...SINCE IT IS FOR A LIMITED AREA AND
EACH DAY THE MODELS SEEM TO INDICATE FURTHER SLOWING. FEEL THAT THE
DRYLINE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE CO/KS BORDER...SO INTITIALLY
CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THEN AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ADJACENT PLAINS. THIS
GENERAL TROFINESS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY FOR THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION AND ABOUT 20 DEGREES OF COOLING. ON MONDAY MUCH OF THE
SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NE...WITH NW FLOW THEN TRYING TO DEVELOP
OVER COLORADO. ONE NOTE...THE EC MODEL WANTS TO MAINTAIN PCPN ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA SOLIDLY THROUGH MONDAY...BUT FEEL THIS IS A BIT
OVERDONE AND WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARDS THE GFS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION
AND TRENDED TOWARDS DRY CONDITIONS...WITH WARMING TEMPS. EXPECT MAX
TEMPS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR TUE...THEN BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WED.
MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT WED MAY 15 2013

KALS...SCT -SHRA/-TSRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR THE TERMINAL AND ACROSS
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY THROUGH 02Z...THEN GRADUALLY END BY 04Z. ERRATIC
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL AT LEAST
02Z...AND VERY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER SOME OF THE
STRONGER STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH ANY TSRA THU AFTERNOON STAYING OVER THE MTS.

KCOS...TSRA HAVE TEMPORARILY MOVED AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT...BUT SCT
-SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN NORTH AND WEST OF COS MAY
DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE TERMINAL BETWEEN 22Z-02Z. ERRATIC GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 02-03Z...AND VERY
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER SOME OF THE STRONGER
STORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...WITH ANY TSRA THU AFTERNOON STAYING OVER THE MTS.

KPUB...LESS CHANCE OF TSRA REACHING THE TERMINAL THAN AT
KCOS/KALS...THOUGH ERRATIC AND SHIFTING WINDS DUE TO TSRA OUTFLOW
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 02Z. STILL A LOW THREAT OF A FEW WEAK TSRA
HOLDING TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A VCTS MENTION INTO EARLY
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH ANY TSRA THU AFTERNOON STAYING OVER THE
MTS.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...PETERSEN