Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 211020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
420 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Still a few sprinkles across the eastern plains early this morning,
but expect these to move into KS over the next hour or so and won`t
include any precip in the forecast across the plains for the morning
hours. For today and tonight, fairly strong short wave will cross
the area, with modest vertical motion developing this afternoon and
continuing through the night as wave axis will still be across srn
CO early Mon morning. Lack of moisture and weak instability will be
the limiting factors for precip today/tonight, as surface dewpoints
remain generally in the 30s/low 40s, while CAPEs stay mostly below
500 J/KG. SWODY1 has far sern corner of the plains in a marginal
risk for severe, as CAPEs here could creep upward toward 800 J/KG
while 0-6km shear increases into the 40-50 kt range. Given late
arrival of best lift and weak instability, suspect most convection
will hold off until late afternoon or early this evening, with
window for tsra from about 23z through 06z. Storms could congeal
into a MCS overnight as they push eastward into KS/OK/TX, while a
few isolated -shra linger back over CO through sunrise Mon. Max
temps should continue to climb today today, with a few 70f readings
reappearing on the plains by late afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Monday-Tuesday...Moderate to strong north to northwest flow aloft
expected across the region, with a few embedded short waves progged
to translate across the area into early next week. One wave is
translating across the southern portions of area late Sunday
night/early Monday morning, with another stronger wave progged to
move across the state Monday afternoon and evening, which sends a
backdoor cold front across the eastern Plains. One last wave looks
to dig across the area on Tuesday, which sends another backdoor cold
front across the eastern plains Tuesday afternoon and evening. With
that said, will continue to see generally cool and unsettled
weather, with isolated to scattered showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms across the area through the period. Best coverage of
showers and storms to be over and near the higher terrain Monday
afternoon and evening, with a few stronger storms possible across
the far se plains, as low level moisture pools along and behind the
passing front. Some drier air looks to get entrained within the
northerly flow aloft on Tuesday, with more isolated storms expected
through the day Tuesday, before diminishing Tuesday evening.
Temperatures look to be at and below seasonal levels through the
period, with Tuesday looking to be the coolest day of the upcoming

Wednesday-Saturday...Drier and warmer weather can be expected
through the day Wednesday, as short wave ridging builds across the
state. The ridge quickly flattens across the area Wednesday night as
Eastern Pacific energy translates across the Great Basin and
Northern Rockies, bringing chances of mainly mountain showers on
Thursday. Minor waves embedded within moderate westerly flow aloft
continues across the area into the early weekend, keeping daily
chances of showers to areas over and near the higher terrain.
Temperatures look to be at or slightly above seasonal levels into
the end of the work week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 420 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Generally VFR at all taf sites today and tonight, though will carry
a VCTS mention at KPUB and KCOS from 22z-23z until around 04z as
upper wave dropping south across the region sparks convection. Low
levels aren`t particularly moist, so only a brief excursion into
MVFR/IFR territory is expected as heavier cells move through both
terminals. Mountains, especially across the Pikes Peak region, will
likely become obscured at times due to -shra/-tsra from mid
afternoon into the evening, with some clearing by 04z-06z as flow
becomes more nly.




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