Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 161715

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1115 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Currently, GOES16 water vapor imagery shows mountain wave pattern
across southern Colorado with leading edge of cooler air racing
south through the plains.  Temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s
across the plains, 30s and 40s high valleys and mountains.  All
precipitation is well north of the CWA in Nebraska.

Today, Northern Rockies upper low and associated energy will move
across Montana and Wyoming into the Dakotas through the day, with
primary lift remaining well north of CWA.  With relatively dry air
across southern Colorado, almost no chance for showers anywhere. The
west-southwesterly flow aloft will relax as system to the north
moves farther away. Temperatures will be quite a bit cooler across
the plains, with highs in the 70s to near 80. It will be just a few
degrees cooler across the high valleys and mountains, with 60s to
lower 70s, and 40s to 50s, respectively.

Tonight, with weak, relatively moist upslope flow across the plains
and I-25 corridor, expect low clouds to form, mainly after midnight,
as indicated by model soundings. In addition, short term models
hinting at some low level convergence with some light showers
developing across the Palmer Divide area. The showers are
primarily depicted across BOU and GLD area, but have introduced
some isolated showers across far northern sections of our the I-25
corridor and plains. In addition to the slight chance of showers,
across the Pikes Peak Region low clouds and light fog look fairly
likely. Lows across the CWA will range from the mid 40s to lower
50s across the I- 25 corridor and plains, to the 30s to lower 40s
high valleys and mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 338 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Sunday morning should begin with quite a few low clouds across the
plains and moist upslope flow will be over the region across the
plains. Elevations above 7500 feet should be most clear however as
the upslope should not be that deep. Clouds should break by midday,
and we may see a bit of strong thunder over the region by late
afternoon, especially along and east of the southern mtns. CAPE
values in this region should be around 1000 J/KG and shear will be
more than sufficient for one or two rotating storms. SPC has the
area under marginal risk. Otherwise, Sunday afternoon will be a nice
cool day with reading mainly in the 70s across the plains and

Monday and Tuesday...

Hot and dry for this time of the year. Readings will be in the upper
80s to L90s across the plains, with 70s in the valleys. Winds Monday
should be relatively weak, but on Tuesday, surface winds pick up and
humidities will be quite low, so we may have some fire weather
issues on this day.

Wednesday into the weekend...

More seasonable temperatures are anticipated during this period as a
couple for shortwaves will move through the broad troughieness over
the western conus during this time period. Overall it is likely
going to remain dry into at least late week. A more sharper trough
is anticipated for the weekend and this will likely bring an
increasing chance of precip for the mtns with slight chance of pops
for the plains. /Hodanish


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1059 AM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Low clouds are beginning to form along the southern front range,
ceilings have already been observed at BKN025 in COS and OVC037 at
PUB. The moist upslope flow should not go away throughout the day,
but the actual ceiling will vary. There is a shortwave trough that
will develop around 04-05Z, which will shift the winds to a more
southerly component at COS and PUB, and will likely bring showers
around the Pikes Peak region, hence the VCSH for COS. ALS seems to
be pretty disconnected from the flow regime and moisture that exists
along the front range, expect diurnal flow and VFR conditions for ALS.
MVFR conditions will begin tonight and last through the overnight hours
for COS and near MVFR conditions will also begin tonight and last
through the overnight hours for PUB.




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