Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 030500
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1100 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

UPDATED MAINLY POPS IN THE GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND HI RES GUIDANCE. LOTS OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION
STILL MOVING NORTHWARD THROUGH NRN NM...AND SOME OF THIS SHOULD
MOVE INTO SC AND SE CO THIS EVENING.BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE
ERN MTS AND SURROUNDING AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITHOUT ANY
STRONG FORCING...SHOULD SEE CONVECTION DIMINISH LATER THIS EVE BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLD ACTIVITY OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
LATE TONIGHT...WILL START TO SEE THE INFLUENCE OF A SURGE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE INTO SW CO...SO HAVE BOOSTED POPS SLIGHTLY
EARLY THU FOR THE CONTDVD. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

CONVECTION SLOWLY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH STORMS MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS
AND ALONG THE NM BORDER WHERE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IS GREATEST.
FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...EXPECT CONVECTION
TO EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS AS WEAK
UPPER WAVE AND INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVE INTO CO FROM
NORTHWESTERN NM. HRRR SUGGESTS SOME WEAKENING STORMS TO PERHAPS
REACH THE I-25 CORRIDOR AROUND KPUB AND KCOS THIS EVENING...THOUGH
RATHER LOW CAPE (200-400 J/KG) ACROSS THESE AREAS SUGGESTS STORMS
WILL STAY ISOLATED AND WEAK. A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE OF THE RATON MESA EASTWARD ACROSS LAS ANIMAS
COUNTY...WHILE REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS SHOULD BE TOO STABLE TO
SUPPORT ANY EVENING CONVECTION. OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL END OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WHILE A FEW -SHRA/WEAK -TSRA HANG
ON ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WHERE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT
NORTHWARD FROM AZ/NM.

ON THU...EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM
THE SANGRES WESTWARD AS DEEP MOIST AIR MASS WILL BE OVER THE
AREA...WHILE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES/I25 CORRIDOR/SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SEE MUCH LESS ACTIVITY UNDER RATHER UNFAVORABLE W-SW WINDS AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN RATHER HEALTHY PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES...STORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
FAIRLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES...THOUGH RELATIVELY STRONG STEERING
CURRENTS SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY MOVING AND REDUCE THE FLOOD HAZARD
SOMEWHAT. MAX TEMPS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS SHOULD COOL A FEW
DEGREES FROM WED MAXES...WHILE I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS
SEE LITTLE CHANGE WITH RATHER HOT TEMPS PERSISTING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND EC INTO THE WEEKEND...AS COLORADO REMAINS IN THE
MIDDLE OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST.,..AND A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PAC NW. THIS WILL PRODUCE
BRISK SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE 4 CORNERS AND COLORADO...DRAWING A
HEALTHY AMOUNT OF MONSOON MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL
ALSO ENCOURAGE DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE MTS AND
ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. LOOK FOR MILD NIGHTS...AND MAX TEMPS EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR THE HIGH VALLEYS...AND AROUND
90 F FOR THE E PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MODELS START TO DISAGREE BEGINNING ON SUN. THE
UPPER LOW OVER THE PAC NW WILL ROTATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
SAT...MT ON SUN AND BACK NORTH INTO CANADA FOR MON. THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION...TEMPORARILY CUTTING
OFF THE MONSOON TAP FROM THE SW. MODELS SOMEWHAT AGREE ON THIS...BUT
THE GFS STARTS TO SNEAK MOISTURE BACK UP INTO THE STATE MON
AFTERNOON AND EVE. FEEL THIS IS REASONABLE SINCE THERE WILL STILL
BE PLENTY OF DAYTIME HEATING...SO KEPT ISOLATED POPS OVER THE
MTS...MAINLY ALONG THE CONTDVD...MON AFTERNOON AND EVE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EC LEANS TOWARDS KEEPING THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY THROUGH WED...WHILE THE GFS HAS MORE OF A SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO DRAW SOME OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE BACK INTO THE STATE.
DECIDED TO SIDE WITH THE GFS...BUT KEPT POPS LIGHT THROUGH WED WHILE
COOLING MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES. MOORE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED SEP 2 2015

MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOULD SEE INCREASE
IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OVER THE MOUNTAINS TOMORROW
ALTHOUGH LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS. GENERALLY
VFR ACROSS FLIGHT AREA BUT MVFR/IFR/LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY 18Z-00Z. HEAVY RAIN...FLASH
FLOODING...GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING ARE MAIN STORM
THREATS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW WILL BE AT KALS. FOR
NOW...WILL CARRY VCTS AT KALS 17Z-04Z THURSDAY. SECOND BEST CHANCE
OF A TERMINAL STORM IS AT KCOS. WILL CARRY VCTS THERE 18Z-04Z
THURSDAY. FOR KPUB...CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN TOO FAR WEST TO INCLUDE IN TERMINAL FORECAST SO NO MENTION
THERE AT THIS TIME. ALL 3 TAFS WILL BE SUBJECT TO AMENDMENTS TOMORROW
AFTERNOON PENDING CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...LW



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