Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 212128
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
328 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...QUICK SHOT OF RAIN AND SNOW TONIGHT...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION
WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
AND EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MTS WITH BEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH HAS HELPED TO LIMIT MIXING AND HAS
KEPT LOW CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

LATEST MODELS IN AGREEMENT OF TWO BULLSEYE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT...THE FIRST BEING THE FAR SE PLAINS AS NORTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST INTO THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE OTHER BEING ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION SPREADING NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE SAN LUIS AND UPPER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEYS AND INTO THE
PEAKS PEAK REGION TONIGHT...AS THE DESERT SW WAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE NORTH AND EAST ACROSS WESTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT. MODELS
ARE ALSO MOVING THE SYSTEM FAIRLY QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA WITH QPF
TOTALS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...GENERALLY IN THE A QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THAT SAID...WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...THOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING
ISSUES WITH THE ALREADY SATURATED SOILS. THE HIGHER MT PEAKS WILL
LIKELY SEE A QUICK SHOT OF MODERATE SNOWFALL...AND HAVE KEPT CURRENT
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE CENTRAL MTS AND ADDED THE PEAKS PEAK
MASSIF...WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY...SUBSIDENT SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING
SHOULD LEAD TO DIMINISHING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
THE MAIN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST COVERAGE ALONG THE CONTDVD. INCREASING SW ALOFT ALOFT LEADS TO
A LHX LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...WITH POSSIBLE
DRYLINE AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON. WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS...SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARMING INTO
THE 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TOMORROW...WITH 50S AND
60S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

...UNSETTLED...BUT NOT QUITE AS WET...

A COUPLE OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT OUR WEATHER
THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...THE FIRST
SUN-SUN NIGHT AND A SECOND ON TUE. THESE ARE RELATIVELY WEAK
SYSTEMS BUT GIVEN THE ANTECEDENT WET CONDITIONS AND SATURATED
SOILS...COULD ADD TO THE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR THE AREA.

FIRST LOW APPROACHES THE 4 CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS WILL BE DRY-SLOTTED BY
THIS SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE PRECIP/QPF WILL FALL
OVER THE CENTRAL MTS...WITH ONLY SCT SHOWERS FOR THE REST OF
THE AREA. SHOULD HOPEFULLY SEE 70S FOR THE PLAINS AS A HIGH TEMP.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CONCERN FOR SVR WX...BUT MOST RECENT GUIDANCE
HAS THE STRONGEST SVR THREAT ALONG AND E OF THE DRYLINE...WHICH
WILL BE NR THE CO-KS BORDER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AREA TO WATCH
WILL BE MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY 287 IN ERN KIOWA AND PROWERS COUNTIES.
A SECONDARY THREAT WILL BE N OF THE SFC LOW OVER THE
PLAINS...WHICH GUIDANCE SUGGEST WILL BE OVER NERN CO.

ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO NERN CO AND WE COULD
SEE SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE LATE IN THE DAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND AREAS N OF HGWY 50 WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP. HIGHS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NRN ZONES.

AFTER A BRIEF SHORT WAVE RIDGE ON MONDAY...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL MTS AND THEN ON THROUGH THE ERN CO PLAINS
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER AIR TO THE
AREA AND AN INCREASING THREAT OF SHOWERS...AGAIN MAINLY FOR THE
MTS AND MORE NRN ZONES IN OUR CWA.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES TO OUR NE...WE WILL SEE INCREASING SWRLY
FLOW DEVELOP MID-WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH. THIS
SHOULD DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP A BIT...COULD EVEN SEE TEMPS
APPROACH 80 DEGREES AT KPUB FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE THE BEGINNING
OF THE MONTH. IN FACT...MEX GUIDANCE HAS A HIGH OF 87 FOR KPUB
NEXT THURSDAY...BUT GIVEN THE PERSISTENT COOL PATTERN AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE...WILL STICK WITH ENSEMBLE TEMPS WHICH ARE ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE MOS NUMBERS. ROSE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 252 PM MDT THU MAY 21 2015

MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST AT COS AND PUB WITH MOIST LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE. A WEATHER SYSTEM LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MODERATE TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AT THE TERMINALS. WESTERLY FLOW BEHIND THE
PARTING SYSTEM SHOULD LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN
THE AFTERNOON.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. COULD SEE BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
06Z...THOUGH WILL KEEP VCTSSH IN TAF FAR NOW.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR COZ058-060-082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...ROSE
AVIATION...MW


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