Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 241210
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
510 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

...ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW MOVING INTO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TODAY...

NEXT SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO WITH AREA
RADARS/SFC OBS BEGINNING TO DETECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SPREADING IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST. SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING WITH UPPER TROF AXIS
EXITING SOUTHERN CO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.  THUS EXPECT FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD SNOW TO BE ONGOING BY 12Z ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS
BEFORE SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING/AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE BEST OROGRAPHICS
FOR THE SAWATCH AND MOSQUITO RANGES WHERE WINTER STORM WARNING
CONTINUES THROUGH 00Z. ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING AND HEAVIEST SNOW WILL
LIKELY BE THIS MORNING...MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK FAIRLY SATURATED
AND LAPSE RATES FAIRLY STEEP...SUGGESTING SOME CONVECTIVE COMPONENT
MAY COME INTO PLAY DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER 3 TO 7 INCHES CAN
BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CHAFFEE AND LAKE COUNTIES
BY 5 PM THIS EVENING.  REMAINDER OF THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AS WELL...BUT WITH LESS FAVORABLE
OROGRAPHICS...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHTER...WITH AMOUNTS ON THE
ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

FOR THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS/PLAINS...LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER
QUICK ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...THOUGH GIVEN
THE DRIER LOW LEVELS...AND LACK OF MUCH UPSLOPE...THINK THAT
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WON`T BE AS GREAT AS YESTERDAY.  WILL CARRY
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS FOR MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.  NAM12 LOOKS OVERDONE AGAIN WITH SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND WETS WHERE IT IS PREDICTING ANOTHER FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES. ITS PROBABLY ONTO THE SOMETHING WITH THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE...BUT SUSPECT ITS COVERAGE IS OVERDONE.  HAVE GONE
CLOSER TO THE RAP/HRRR/GFS BLEND SOLUTION. COULD BE SOME 1-2 INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH MUCH MORE LOCALIZED UP TO 3 INCH AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY THOUGH MIXING
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPERATURES INTO
THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS BY AROUND NOON.  MEANWHILE...CAA ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS TODAY WILL LIKELY RESULT IN STEADY TO FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON
AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER WHICH IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. GFS SPREADS THIS IN FAIRLY QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT SUGGESTING MINS MAY STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

NOT MANY METEOROLOGICAL ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED FROM EARLIER
DISCUSSION AS LONGER TERM CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE
TEMPERATURES...GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES AND GENERALLY CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN POPS AT TIMES.

LONGER TERM COMPUTER SIMULATIONS SUGGEST THAT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW(GENERALLY IN THE TWO TO EIGHT INCH RANGE) WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF LAKE AND CHAFFEE COUNTIES FROM
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN.

ELSEWHERE...LOW GRADE TO NIL POPS ARE ANTICIPATED FROM TUESDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS DRY NORTHWESTERLY TO ZONAL UPPER FLOW
COVERS THE FORECAST DISTRICT. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN
AGAIN FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

AT THE SURFACE...VARYING DEGREES OF EASTERN COLORADO LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE FROM TUESDAY INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE NEXT NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY SURGE IMPACTS
EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT BY NEXT SUNDAY.

WARMEST CONDITIONS OF THE LONGER TERM ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
CENTERED AROUND THANKSGIVING WITH THANKSGIVING DAY...FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY EXPERIENCING THE WARMEST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES. COOLEST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES DURING THE LONGER TERM SHOULD BE NOTED
TUESDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES TODAY WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KTS.  ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING...THOUGH CIGS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN VFR.  SNOW SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS YESTERDAY...AND ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
LOCALIZED AND LIGHT.

WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS ALONG WITH IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH SN BLSN ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE LOCALIZED MTN OBSCURATIONS WITH MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES...THIS AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP.

-KT

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COZ058-
060.

&&

$$



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