Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 301747

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1047 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016


Northwest flow prevails across the region as a large upper low
continues to spin over the upper midwest. Radar and obs were not
showing any precip at 3 am...but a few light snow showers were
likely occurring over the contdvd, especially in the central mtns as
sat pix show cloudiness and short range guidance shows weak lift
over this region. Temps across the area were cold with single digits
noted in many areas of the mtns and valleys, and 20s over
the plains . Teens were noted in N El Paso county.

Today and Tonight...

A dry pattern is expected region-wide during the next 24h as a weak
short wave ridge translates over the fcst area. Skies will be mostly
clear across during most of the period, but we will likely see some
increasing clouds late tonight as the next shortwave approaches the
region. Max temps today are expected to be in the 30s and 40s
across the  lower elevations and tens and 20s across most of the
valleys and mtns. Winds will be much lighter than the last couple of
days. Lows tonight will be in the teens across the plains and
positive and negative single digits across the mtns and valleys.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

Not much change to the forecast thinking through the extended
period. The GFS and Ensemble members are in pretty good agreement,
with some differences early next week between the GFS and ECMWF.

Thursday through Friday upper level disturbance is
forecast to drop south out of the Northern Rockies, across Utah,
and south into northern Mexico late this week. The main impact
across Colorado will be snowfall for the Continental Divide.
Expect isolated shower activity Thursday morning, increasing in
coverage through Friday for the mountains. A lack of moisture
should keep snow totals on the lower side, with 1 to 4 inches
possible, especially over the Central Mountains. There is some
uncertainty further east. The NAM brings a period of precipitation
to the Palmer Divide Friday afternoon and evening, while the GFS
and ECMWF focus further south over the Raton Mesa. For now, have
low POPs over the Palmer Divide and Raton Mesa as the upper
disturbance drops south. Temperatures will be cool with 40s for
highs on Thursday, and 30s on Friday.

The weekend...westerly zonal flow will develop on Saturday and
begin to transition southwest Sunday as the next upper trough
develops out west. A few snow showers are possible over the
Central Mountains on Saturday, with dry conditions across the
region on Sunday. Temperatures will warm through the weekend with
50s for highs on Sunday.

Monday and upper level trough is forecast to deepen
over the western conus with broad southwest flow across Colorado.
This will draw moisture northward with increased chances for snow,
possibly significant, for the Continental Divide. There are some
model differences, with the GFS deeper and further west with the
upper trough, while the ECMWF is further north. The GFS drops a
cold front across the plains by Tuesday, with widespread snow
across the region. The ECMWF has the cold front, but given the
more northerly solution, keeps the Plains dry. Much cooler
temperatures are expected with 20s to low 30s for highs on Tuesday
and overnight lows in the lower teens.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1037 AM MST Wed Nov 30 2016

VFR conditions expected at the taf sites with diurnally driven
winds under 12 kts. Snow will reenter the forecast for the
Continental Divide tonight with IFR Cigs.  -KT




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