Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 130151
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
751 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 748 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Updated the POPs for tonight based on current pcpn trends seen on
radar and based on HRRR forecast for later tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

...Severe thunderstorm chances increase into Sunday for the plains...

Northwest flow will remain over the area with the next upper level
shortwave evident in UT/western Co moving across during the evening
and overnight hours.  This in combination with afternoon heating
will trigger thunderstorms across the mountains, some of which will
drift off into the plains during the evening.  Of greater note is
potential for one or two strong to severe thunderstorms across
northern portions of the southeast plains this evening along a sfc
trof/outflow boundary. This looks to be a conditional threat however
as model soundings show a cap in place across the plains
today...though this appears to erode close to the mountains and
weaken into the evening north of highway 50. HRRR has been
persistent with this solution which lends credence to keeping some
pops in through the overnight hours across the plains. This area is
under a marginal risk for severe weather and given CAPE values of
1500+ J/kg and 0-6km shears of 40 kts, can`t rule out an isolated
severe storm basically north of highway 50 through this evening.
Otherwise, activity should generally wind down later tonight.

Sunday looks like another active day with higher CAPE and shear
across the plains as upper flow aloft increases.  Once again,
thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain during the
afternoon, however focus will also occur along the surface trof axis
across the plains.  With less of a cap and the potential for 2000-
3000 J/kg of CAPE, this day will have the greater potential of
severe thunderstorms. particularly east of a line from La Junta to
Kim. Very large hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado will be
possible into Sunday evening. Even though dew points will remain
slightly lower across the mountains, there will still be sufficient
moisture for locally heavy rainfall and the potential for flash
flooding on area burn scars should these areas be impacted by a
stronger storm. -KT

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Not many many meteorological adjustments required from previous
meteorological reasoning during the longer with issues continuing
to include pops, temperatures, heavy rain/localized flash flood
potential as well as intense storm potential at times

Latest longer term forecast model soundings, computer simulations
and PV analysis indicate that a relatively moist airmass to
continue over the forecast district into Monday, with some drying
then indicated Tuesday before increasing atmospheric moisture
returns from late week into next weekend.

Still anticipate that isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity will be noted each day with precipitation generally
favoring higher terrain locations during the longer term.

Again, some of the stronger storms will be capable of generating
heavy rain and localized flash flooding concerns and may also be
intense at times. As always, WFO Pueblo will issue hydro/severe
weather products as needed.

Projected maximum and minimum temperatures during the longer term
should hover near mid-August climatological averages in combination
with basically low-grade gradient winds and minimal fire weather
concerns.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 343 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2017

VFR conditions expected at the TAF sites this afternoon and evening
with brief MVFR cigs/vis possible with isolated thunderstorms
which could impact the terminals during the late afternoon and
evening. All three TAF sites will carry VCTS for now, though KCOS
will see the best chance of thunderstorms through this evening.
IFR stratus is likely to develop across the plains again
tonight...but majority of forecast model simulations keep it just
east of KCOS tonight. This will be a tough call and will have to
watch how this evolves over the next several runs. For now will
carry a BKN010 layer in KPUB through early Sunday morning. Sunday
will carry the risk for stronger storms across the plains,
particularly along and east of the I-25 corridor. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...28


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