Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 151732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1132 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Issued at 1006 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Updated to expand the Red Flag Warning for today to include the
Sangre De Cristo Mountains...Wet Mountains...and Wet Mountain
valley. Already getting spotty areas of near critical fire weather
conditions. With conditions expected to expand through the
afternoon...think enough of that zone will hit criteria to warrant
inclusion in the adjacent red flag warnings already in effect. -KT


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016



Quite a bit of cirrus was located over the region at 3 am. Westerly
flow was prevailing over most areas...and these two factors were
keeping temperatures quite warm over the area as readings were near
70F in klhx...with many areas in the 60s. Humidity values were very
low for this time of the readings were below 15% over
quite a bit of the plains. Even areas in the mountains and valleys
had low reading in te 20% range.

Sat pix imagery shows quite a bit of high cloudiness prevailing
across the western and central CONUS. A strong zonal jet was
continuing to move onshore from the pacific northwest.


Fire weather is the main concern today...and will only become more
of a concern in later periods (see long term section below). Breezy
conditions are expected in the mountains...valleys and immediate
eastern slopes of the s mtns this afternoon. Based on latest
guidance have added Fremont county to the RED FLAG warning which is
also in effect for the San Luis Valley (SLV) region. near critical
to critical red flag criteria was also being met is some areas of
the southern mountain regions...mainly on th immediate east slopes
of the Sangre de Cristo mountain areas. Other smaller areas of near
critical fire weather criteria were noted over the lower elevations
of the central mountains and western Teller county. These areas may
have to be monitored for possible upgrade to red flag warning if
winds become stronger than currently forecast.

Burning in the mountains and valleys today is strongly discouraged.

Near critical to critical (RED FLAG) fire weather conditions will
occur in the mountains and valleys today.  The fire weather threat
is only expected to increase tomorrow and into Monday as west winds
are forecast to  become stronger as a powerful jet stream approaches
the region.

Over the is going to feel more like summer than mid
October as max temps are going to likely reach around 90 across the
lower ark rvr valley...with mid to upper 80s most other areas of the
plains. Winds east of I-25 are expected to remain generally light
from the southwest.


Humidity values are not expected to recover all that much and values
in the 30s and 40s are anticipated. The driest conditions will occur
on the immediate east slopes of the southern mtns. As the atmosphere
decouples...winds will decrease over the lower elevations of the
high country (valley floors), but will increase over the mtn tops
and remain breezy on the eastern slopes of the s mtns. It will be
another warm night with lows only in the 50s on the east slopes of
the s mtns, with these warm temps extending eastward onto the
plains. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

...Hot with high fire danger through Monday...

Models in good agreement through Tuesday, with differences later
in the forecast period. Expect high fire danger across the region
through Monday with much above normal temperatures. A storm system
will bring cooler weather and possible precipitation to the region
by mid week.

Sunday through upper level trough is forecast to
deepen over the Great Basin forcing flow to increase out of the
southwest through Monday. Mixing of strong winds along with very
dry air in place across the region will lead to very dangerous
fire weather conditions during the afternoon and evening hours
both Sunday and Monday. Conditions look to be most critical on
Monday with very strong winds expected across the region. Mountain
areas my be close to high wind criteria Monday. Temperatures will
be warm across the plains with upper 80s to mid 90s expected for
highs. Models indicating an isolated shower will be possible
Monday afternoon and evening over the Central Mountains.

Tuesday through upper disturbance passing to the
north will send a cold front south across the region by Tuesday
morning. This will bring much cooler air to the region along with
calmer northerly winds. Highs on Tuesday will reach the mid 60s to
lower 70s. There will also be better chances for showers over the
mountains as energy moves into western Colorado.

Models are having trouble with the evolution of the upper pattern
Wednesday into Thursday. The GFS is most aggressive with an upper
trough moving out of the Great Basin and strengthening into an
upper low over the Central Plains. However, this solution seems to
be the outlier compared the the ECMWF and Canadian solutions. All
bring a trough across Colorado, but the ECMWF and Canadian are
much faster with the system. A secondary cold front is expected on
Wednesday with slightly better moisture and upslope flow
developing. The best chances for precipitation for all of Southern
Colorado appears to be on Wednesday, clearing the are by Thursday
morning. Dry and cool conditions would then prevail Thursday into
Friday. The GFS is much slower clearing precipitation out of the
area, having shower continuing into Thursday before drying out
Friday. For now trended with the ECMWF and Canadian with drier
conditions by Thursday and a faster progression of the upper

Much cooler air is expected during this period. Highs will likely
remain in the 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will fall into the upper
20s to mid 30s over the plains. Areas that have not had a killing
freeze may do so by Friday morning. In addition, the plains may
see a few flakes of snow depending on when precipitation occurs
with the passing system.  Mozley


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1127 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Gusty winds will be the main concern for the TAF sites over the
next 24 hours. Winds will increase out of the south to southwest
at 15-25 kts for all three terminals this afternoon...occuring
the earliest at KALS...and later in the afternoon for KCOS and
KPUB. Winds will decouple this evening...around 02z. There could
be a brief window Sunday morning for LLWS at the KCOS terminal
between 12z and 15z...though confidence is too low at this point
to introduce into TAF just yet. Otherwise...expect some passing
high clouds at times with VFR conditions. Increasing Mtn wave
activity will lead to turbulence over the mountains as winds
increase into Sunday. -KT


Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Oct 15 2016

Dangerous fire weather conditions are expected through Monday
across much of southern Colorado. Locations over the San Luis
Valley, stretching into Fremont County will see the most critical
conditions this afternoon and evening. Increased flow aloft and
mixing of strong winds and dry air will expand the area of
critical fire weather conditions eastward, from the San Luis
Valley, east to the Kansas border. Winds will only increase over
the region for Monday, further increasing the dangerous fire

Fires that start will be capable of rapid spreads, and once going,
will be difficult to fight due to strong winds, low humidity
values and critical fuels through Monday. Any outdoor burning
should be postponed. This includes outdoor grilling. If a fire
should start, report it to your local fire fighters.  Mozley


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for COZ221-222-224>237.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM MDT this evening for COZ222-224-225.



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