Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 120513

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1013 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

...Winds Decreasing but Still More Snow for the Continental Divide...

Winds are blowing strong across the eastern slopes and plains this
afternoon but they have come down below warning levels.  Current
peak gust speeds across the plains are topping out at 50 to nearly
60 mph at times.  This activity should continue through the
afternoon and then diminish early this evening with sunset.

Meanwhile, wind and periods of snow will continue along the
Continental Divide through the evening and then gradually taper off
after midnight.  Generally, anther 3 to 5 inches can be expected
across the central mountains with another 1 to 3 over the southwest

On Thursday, we will start to transition toward the next weather
system.  A deepening low pressure system will come onshore over
southern California during the afternoon.  This will begin to lower
surface pressures over the west, pulling a shallow arctic airmass
(currently stalled over northeast Kiowa and Prowers Counties) in
from the east during the late morning and afternoon.  Meanwhile,
after a brief lull in the morning, snow will begin to ramp up along
the Continental Divide again in the afternoon, with the potential
for another 2 to 4 inches along the Divide by evening. There is also
some potential for a little bit of snow shower activity breaking out
over the eastern mountains and El Paso County late in the day, with
the best chance over the Pikes Peak Region. If it does precipitate
in these areas, it doesn`t look like much at this time.

High temperature forecasts over the plains tomorrow are a bit
challenging. Right now, it looks like highs will be achieved by
either later morning or early afternoon, with falling temperatures
thereafter as shallow arctic air pushes in from the east.  If the
arctic air moves in overnight or earlier than expected on Thursday,
current forecast highs across the plains could end up being way too
mild.  Also, the front will likely have some decent low cloud cover
with it.  This could additionally impact forecasts.  So, don`t be
surprised if it ends up being a lot cloudier and colder than you
expected on Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

Active/complex pattern still anticipated during the longer term
with meteorological concerns still including but not limited to
pops, snow amounts, mixed/freezing precipitation potential at
times(especially over far southeastern sections), gusty winds at
times and temperatures.

Incoming longer term computer simulations, forecast model
soundings and PV analysis indicate that another round of snow will
be ongoing over portions of the Continental Divide Thursday night
with several inches of snow anticipated by sunrise Friday. Then
next round of accumulating snow(favoring the San Juan Mountains)
is anticipated from Friday into Friday night.

Meteorological focus then shifts to amount of impact that closed
upper low provides the forecast district from this weekend into
early next week with improving conditions then anticipated across
the CWFA next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Upper closed low initially located south of San Diego, California
at 12Z Saturday is expected to move to southwest of El Paso, Texas
by 12Z Sunday before rotating across far southeastern Colorado by
06Z Monday and then into northeastern Kansas by 18Z Monday.

At this time, it still appears that the most widespread
precipitation potential with this passing upper low should be
noted from later Saturday night into at least Monday morning with
beneficial/heavy precipiation at times anticipated(including the
potential for heavy snow at times...primarily over southern and
eastern sections of the forecast district) including mixed
precipitation potential at times over portions of the far
southeastern Colorado plains. As always, WFO Pueblo will closely
monitor the track, speed and strength of this incoming system and
issue winter weather highlights as warranted.

The highest potential for gusty winds during the longer term
is anticipated from Thursday night into Friday night and then
again from later Sunday into Monday morning.

Overall, near to below seasonal mid-January maximum temperatures
are expected during the longer term in combination with generally
above seasonal minimum temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1008 PM MST Wed Jan 11 2017

KALS...VFR conditions with passing mid and high clouds through
tonight. Southerly winds should diminish around 09z tonight. CIGS
will likely lower during the morning to near 4 kft which will
persist into the evening hours.

KCOS...westerly winds will diminish later tonight with passing
mid and high level clouds. A boundary will back into the terminal
by Thursday morning with a northeasterly wind shift. Low stratus
will develop by the late afternoon with the possibility of a few
passing snow showers during the evening.

KPUB...westerly winds will diminish later tonight with passing mid
and high clouds. Winds will really weaken late tonight into the
morning hours. Easterly winds should bring in lower CIGS to near 6
kft by the late afternoon and evening.  Mozley


Winter Storm Warning until midnight MST tonight for COZ058>061-



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