Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 130931
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
331 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

A cold front moved through southeast CO overnight, and much of the
southeast plains will see east to southeast surface winds today,
along with cooler temps.  Westerly flow aloft will continue over the
area today and tonight as an upper level trof moves from the Pacific
NW early today, into southeast ID/wrn WY by Sat morning.  Winds over
the higher elevations will continue to be a little strong and gusty
today and tonight.  The high valleys will see southwest to west
winds increase for the afternoon hours, with gusts of about 25-30
mph or even a little higher in southern portions of the San Luis
Valley.  The southern I-25 corridor, from about the Walsenburg area,
south to NM, is also expected to see an increase in southwest winds
this afternoon, along with falling humidities.  At this time it
looks like min RH values in the San Luis Valley will fall to around
15 percent leading to critical to near critical fire weather
conditions in some locations.  The lower elevations of Chaffee
county may also see some spotty critical areas this afternoon as
humidities fall and wind gusts near criteria.   Temps acrs much of
the southeast plains will be much cooler today, however in areas of
the southern I-25 corridor, where gusty southwest winds develop,
temps will probably be similar to yesterday.  The high valley
locations should see highs in the mid 60s to around 70 today.

Tonight, a weak disturbance moving acrs the southeast corner of the
state could kick off some showers in that area as indicated by the
NAM and GFS.  Will just keep some isolated pops in that area, mainly
after 03Z.  Elsewhere, dry weather will continue tonight.  Some low
clouds will be possible tonight acrs portions of the southeast
plains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Initial longer term meteorological issues include gusty winds and
fire weather concerns on Saturday due to the potential for gusty
winds, low minimum relative humidities and above seasonal
temperatures and based on recent trends, have converted the
existing Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for Fire Weather
Zone 224(San Luis Valley).

Next longer term meteorological concern is another round of lower
elevation temperatures dropping below freezing by Sunday morning
in the wake of a healthy northerly surface surge moving across
eastern sections Saturday. As always, WFO Pueblo will monitor
closely and issue Freeze highlights as warranted.

Then, expect more nondescript meteorological conditions from
later Sunday into Thursday as latest computer simulations,
PV/Water Vapor analysis and forecast model soundings suggest that
southern Colorado should note basically dry southwesterly to
northwesterly upper flow in combination with varying degrees of
eastern Colorado Lee-Side surface troughing during this
time-frame.

Finally, as briefly touched upon earlier, expect that strongest
winds during the longer term should be experienced into Saturday
with coolest temperatures anticipated Sunday, while warmest
conditions should be realized Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Fri Oct 13 2017

Satellite images show some low clouds over northeast El Paso county
this morning, but at this time it doesn`t look like they will make
it to KCOS.  VFR conditions are expected thru this evening at KCOS,
KPUB and KALS.  Gusty southwesterly winds are expected to develop by
afternoon at KALS, with gusts of 25-30 kts and maybe a little higher
at times.  KCOS and KPUB will see south to southeast winds this
afternoon.  KCOS could see gusts up to 25 kts at times.  Tonight it
is possible that some low stratus could move into the vicinity of
KCOS and KPUB, but at this time chances are too low to include a low
ceiling in the forecast.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ224.

&&

$$


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