Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KPUB 261727
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1127 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

PCPN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS.  UPR LOW OVR NRN NV THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IS EXPECTED TO BE CENTERED OVR CENTRAL UT BY 12Z
WED. THE S TO SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...WILL ALLOW
MSTR TO CONTINUE STREAMING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TODAY ARE FORECAST TO RANGE
FROM AROUND 1 INCH OVR SOUTH CENTRAL CO...TO ABOUT 1.4 INCHES OVR
THE FAR SERN PLAINS...WITH AROUND 0.8 INCH OVR THE CENTRAL MTNS.
BY LATE MORNING SOME SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD BEGIN
DEVELOPING...MAINLY OVR THE SRN MTNS...THEN SPREADING NORTHWARD.
AS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...THE HIGH RES FORECAST MODELS SHOWING
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVR THE SRN PORTIONS OF THE SAN LUIS VALLEY
AND SRN BORDER AREA OF THE SERN PLAINS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE TSTMS THEN MOVE AND SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
AREA. ALL THE CLOUD COVER AND PCPN WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL
TODAY BY AROUND 5 DEGREES IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND I-25
CORRIDOR...WITH AROUND NORMAL READINGS EXPECTED OVR THE FAR SERN
PLAINS.

TONIGHT A SHORTWAVE TROF IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS ERN CO. THIS SHOULD HELP ENHANCE PCPN CHANCES AND SHOULD
KEEP PCPN CHANCES IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY OVR PORTIONS OF THE SERN
PLAINS THRU AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...PROBABLY A LITTLE LONGER.

HEAVY RAIN WILL BE A CONCERN TODAY WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES...ESPECIALLY OVR THE ERN MTNS AND PLAINS. WILL DELAY
THE START OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY A COUPLE HOURS...BUT WILL
LEAVE THE END TIME OF 09Z AS IT IS. CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE STORM OR TWO ...MAINLY FROM EL PASO COUNTY
SOUTHEASTWARD TO KIOWA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR IS RELATIVELY
WEAK...BUT HAIL AROUND 1 INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG GUSTS COULD
OCCUR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

...COOL AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY...

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY...SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN MODELS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER...MAIN THEME HAS BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT
BASIN EARLY WEDNESDAY SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH THEN CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE INTO THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WITH THAT SAID...SHOULD
SEE POPS CRANKING UP ACROSS THE SW AND CENTRAL MTS WEDNESDAY MORNING
WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
INCREASING UVV AND MOISTURE AHEAD OF SAID SYSTEM. A SHORT WAVE
EJECTING OFF PARENT SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
KEEP POPS UP EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SLIGHT LULL EXPECTED
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SPREADS EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN MTS AND
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LATEST MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SLIDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN MTS...LEADING TO
TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL PERSISTING. SUBSIDENT NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY
INCREASES FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH
SCATTERED POPS SLOWLY DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH TEMPS ALOFT COOLING WITH THE PASSING
TROUGH...SHOULD SEE HIGHS BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS WESTERN
COLORADO AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH WELL BELOW SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ON FRIDAY. COULD ALSO SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ON THE HIGHER MTN PEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE
COOL FALL LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...A WARMING AND DRYING TREND STILL REMAINS IN THE
OFFING INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AS DRIER BUT BRISK
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEATHER
SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. COULD STILL BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO FIRE OFF A FEW AFTERNOON SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. LATEST MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...WHICH WOULD
INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO MONDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND TO AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PREVALENT OVER THE
REGION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS MONSOON MOISTURE AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVER THE REGION. BEST CHANCE OF STORMS
OVER THE TAF SITES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...ALTHOUGH
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN COULD OCCUR AT ANY TIME. LOCALLY
HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED SMALL HAIL.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COZ066>068-072>089-
093>099.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...HODANISH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.