Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 182314
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
414 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 414 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

Upper low lifting into nrn AZ this afternoon, with deepening S-SW
flow across much of CO. Have seen a few showers over the wrn third
of the state this afternoon, with most activity staying well west of
the Continental Divide as of 22z. Overnight, upper low will move
slowly northward through AZ, with moisture gradually increasing
across srn CO. Latest models have delayed the development of precip
along the Divide until early Sun morning, and have trimmed back
pops, especially eastern mountains, to account for this scenario.
Clouds and increasing sly wind will lead to another mild night
across the region, with many locations on the plains staying above
freezing. On Sunday, upper low weakens and accelerates eastward from
nrn AZ across CO, with remnant upper trough exiting the state early
Mon morning. Over the mountains, brief burst of heavier snow looks
likely over the San Juan/La Garita mountains early in the day, with
focus shifting to the central mountains in the afternoon and
overnight as low moves across and mid level flow becomes more wly.
Will keep advisory up for the sw mountains into Sun evening, but
hold off on highlight for the central mountains as period of heavy
snow looks rather short. Interior valleys, along with the eastern
mountains, will see isolated to scattered rain/snow showers from Sun
afternoon into the evening, with some spotty snow accums likely
above about 9000 feet. Plains will see some isolated showers as
well, with perhaps a rumble of thunder near the KS border where low
level moisture and instability are slightly better. Precip then
fades away overnight into Mon morning across the area, with 12z/18z
GFS looking better than the too wet looking NAM given rather brisk
wly flow across the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 414 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

Primary longer term meteorological concerns are temperatures,
increased pops and gusty winds at times in combination with
elevated fire weather concerns at times.

Recent longer term forecast model soundings, PV analysis and
computer simulations suggest that a relatively dry and
unseasonably warm northwesterly to southwesterly upper flow pattern
will be in place over the forecast district from Monday into
Tuesday night with next upper disturbances impacting the forecast
district with unsettled conditions at times from Wednesday into
Friday.

At the surface, varying degrees of eastern Colorado lee-side
troughing is anticipated from Monday into Thursday in advance of
healthy northerly surge moving across eastern sections Thursday
night.

Initial upper system expected to initially impact primarily
Continental Divide locations with increased pops from Wednesday
into Wednesday night with precipitation then spreading into
additional eastern locations from Thursday into Thursday night.

Then, next upper disturbance is projected to impact primarily
portions of the Continental Divide and northern sections of the
forecast district with another round of unsettled conditions from
later Friday into Friday night.

Above to well above seasonal temperatures(especially over eastern
portions of the forecast district) are anticipated from Monday
into Wednesday night with temperatures then running near to below
mid to late February climatological averages from Thursday into
next Saturday.

The highest potential for gusty winds at times over the forecast
district during the longer term should be experienced from
Wednesday into Saturday and elevated fire weather concerns will
need to be monitored closely most days next week...especially from
Monday into Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 414 PM MST Sat Feb 18 2017

VFR at all taf sites tonight and Sunday. Could see a vcsh near KALS
and KCOS late Sunday afternoon as moisture increases, though
cigs/vis will likely remain VFR even with precip. S-SW winds will be
strengthen all sites by late morning Sun, with gusts 25-30 kts in
the afternoon. Over the mountains, snow showers will gradually
increase along the Continental Divide over night, with fairly
persistent IFR conditions  from late tonight through the day Sun.
Eastern mountains and interior valleys may see a few -shra/-shsn Sun
afternoon, with higher peaks obscured at times after 18z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM MST
Sunday for COZ068.

&&

$$


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