Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 210250
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
850 PM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Updated to add isolated thunderstorms to portions of the eastern
plains through midnight. Radar imagery shows isolated activity has
developed over Otero into Bent counties and will drift southward
over the next couple of hours. Lightning and moderate rainfall
will be the primary threats.  Mozley

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

Currently...

Much drier air has moved into the region during the last 12 hours.
Radar at 2 pm was showing very little in the way of precip
echoes...with most of the activity along the e slopes of the san
juans and s sangre de cristo mtns. With NW flow currently over the
state...the storms were moving to the southeast. Elsewhere...skies
were mostly sunny over the region with unseasonably cool temps over
the plains.

Rest of today into tonight...

Most precip is expected to stay over the higher terrain and south of
highway 50. The only exception was the HRRR which wants to push some
precip on the plains generally east of the Spanish Peaks region. Hi
res guidance has been showing this last several runs so added some
low end pops over aforementioned region for early this evening. In
addition...one or two storms will likely develop over the higher
elevations of the Pikes Peak region. These storms will likely
quickly die off once heating ends.

All precip should end later this evening. Exception may be along the
CO/NM border where one or two showers may linger into the early
morning hours.

Temps will be cool tonight, with lows in the U40s and 50s over the
plains...and 30s and 40s in the higher terrain.

Tomorrow...

Moisture is expected to increase as 700 mb flow becomes southerly,
and this will advect deeper moisture from NM into the state. All mtn
areas will see an uptick in convection tomorrow afternoon, with the
San Juans seeing the best chance. Max temps will increase quite a
bit...with U80s returning to the lower ark rvr valley and L80s over
the El Paso county.

Except for the plains immediately adjacent to the mtns...it should
be dry across the lower elevations tomorrow during the daylight
hours. /Hodanish

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 321 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

.Monday and Tuesday...Weak trough slowly moves eastward over the
central Rockies. Over the plains, lee trough will develop keeping
the deeper low level moisture eastward in Kansas. As a result
expect diurnal convection to be confined mostly the the mountains
and nearby plains. Chances for storms over and near the mountains
increase on Tuesday as the trough approaches the region.
Temperatures will be near seasonal values, especially on the
plains where there will be less convection.

.Wednesday and Thursday...Stronger trough moves into the region
from the northwest on Wednesday. At the surface, a strong cold
front will move into the plains and eastern mountains from the
north. Currently, looks as if the best chances for precipitation
on Wednesday will remain over the mountains where atmosphere will
remain unstable. Airmass behind the cold front on the plains will
be rather stable, limiting convection immediately behind the
front. Ahead of the front, lower level moisture on the plains will
be limited, and EC and GFS have the strongest QG forcing moving
across the region Wednesday morning. On Thursday, models suggest
the eastern plains will be capped as the airmass behind the cold
front will be unseasonably cool. Convection will mostly be
confined to the mountains.

.Friday and Saturday...Cool air mass starts moving east of the
state with a warming trend for the eastern plains. Flow aloft
becomes westerly with mid level moisture maintaining convection
over the mountains. With a lee trough developing over the eastern
plains, much of the low level moisture will move east of the CWA.
PoP grids have best chances for convection over the and near the
mountain both days. --PGW--

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 321 PM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at taf sites
KPUB and KCOS. Winds will be light and diurnally driven.

KALS may see an isold brief tsra both this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon...although the probability is low.


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOZLEY
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...PGW
AVIATION...HODANISH



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