Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 222147
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
247 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

...A SLOW WARMING TREND...

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATING WEAK
TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE WITH A BROAD UPPER
TROUGH SLOWLY TRANSLATING EAST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG WITH
SHORT RIDGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS THE WEST COAST AT THIS TIME. VISIBLE SATELLITE
INDICATING SNOW COVER STILL IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO AS OF 2 PM MST WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN
THE 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OF INCREASING
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS WEST
COAST SHORT WAVE CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES
TO RAPIDLY COOL AFTER SUNSET...WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY WARMING OVER
AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH
WARMING ALOFT AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE GREAT BASIN
SYSTEM. THE INCREASING AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT LOOKS TO KEEP
ENOUGH MIXING TO HINDER FOG DEVELOPMENT DUE TO MELTING SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON...THOUGH CAN NOT TOTALLY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
MAINLY OVER VALLEY LOCALES.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW...WITH GFS AND AND EC
PRINTING OUT SOME LIGHT QPF ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ALONG THE
CONTDVD INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...DRY AND BREEZY WEATHER
EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL NORMS...THOUGH HAVE TAPERED BACK HIGHS SLIGHTLY IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS RETURN...

UPPER TROF MOVING ONSHORE OUT WEST WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT.  DOESN`T APPEAR TO BE MUCH MOISTURE WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO MAIN AFFECT WILL BE TO BRING SOME ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND MAINLY MID/HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE REGION.  THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP MIN TEMPS SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL FRIDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD LIMIT ANY VALLEY FOG
FORMATION.  NICE WARM UP SETS IN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE REGION. BY SUNDAY...H7 TEMPS CLIMB BACK TO BETWEEN +2
AND +4C ACROSS THE PLAINS.

UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD OVER CO FOR MONDAY...WITH THE WARM
UP CONTINUING.  TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY HIT THE 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH 40S AND 50S FOR THE MOUNTAIN AND VALLEY COMMUNITIES.

NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE STATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AND FILLING CLOSED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA
EVENTUALLY EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
STILL SOME VARIABILITY BETWEEN LONG RANGE MODELS AS TO HOW FAR WEST
THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK...WITH GFS PUTTING WESTERN CO MORE UNDER THE
TRACK.  BUT EITHER WAY...PATTERN SUGGESTS UNSEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS.  EVENTUALLY THIS SYSTEM WILL
ROUND THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
SOUTHEAST PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THIS WILL BRING A
COOL DOWN...AND PERHAPS SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE PLAINS FOR
THURSDAY. GRIDS WILL CARRY ISOLATED POPS FOR THE MOUNTAIN AREAS FOR
NOW UNTIL WE SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES.  ITS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
ISOLATED POPS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY IF
THIS SOLN HOLDS FIRM IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE INCREASING NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED A MINOR EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW...WHICH SHOULD HINDER ANY OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUD/PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPMENT ASSOCIATED WITH MELTING SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINALS
TODAY. BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS EXPECTED AT
TERMINALS AFT 18Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MW


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