Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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000
FXUS65 KPUB 281252
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
652 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING IN NEW OBSERVATIONS ON THE FRONT END.
-KT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

TRAILING DISTURBANCE ON BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING UPPER TROF WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  SHOWERS ON RADAR HAVE LARGELY
DIMINISHED...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE THAN SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
THIS MORNING.  TODAY...NORTHERLY FLOW WILL USHER IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS. MEANWHILE LESS CLOUD COVER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOUNTAIN
AREAS ALONG THE CONTDVD.  IN FACT...HIGHS TODAY SHOULD END UP RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. THERE IS STILL SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL
MOISTURE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS.  BUT PLAINS SHOULD STAY LARGELY DRY.  THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LACK OF ANY FORCING TO HELP
SUSTAIN THEM. DRIER AIR AND CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO BE COOLER THAN PAST COUPLE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  SHADED BLENDED GUIDANCE TOWARDS THE COOLER SIDE OF VALUES.
-KT

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE...

MONSOON FLOW WILL CONTINUE INTO COLORADO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. IT`S NOT A REAL STRONG MONSOON FLOW...MORE OF A LIGHT
ONE...BUT ENOUGH TO KEEP AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS ON THE PLAINS CURRENTLY
LOOKS LIKE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORTWAVE
PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. HOWEVER...YESTERDAY IT LOOKED
LIKE MONDAY WOULD BE A RELATIVELY DRY DAY AND TUESDAY WOULD BE THE
WETTER ONE. SO...CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF DRIER/WETTER DAYS IS
IN QUESTION. IN ANY EVENT...A WEAK MONSOON WILL CONTINUE WITH
PRIMARY STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND SMALL HAIL. LOCAL FLASH FLOODING WILL BE A CONCERN AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BURN SCARS AND URBAN AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 354 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH WINDS STAYING
NORTHERLY FOR KCOS...KPUB...AND KALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THE TAFS. GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF MODERATE RAINFALL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
STORM THREATS IN AND NEAR STORMS TODAY. -KT


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KT
SHORT TERM...KT
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...KT


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