000
FXUS65 KPUB 041132
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
432 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

...QUICK ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE PALMER DIVIDE TONIGHT...

HIGH CLOUDS NOW BEGINNING TO OVERSPREAD OUR CWA FROM THE WEST...AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES OUR AREA. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE NOW
MOVING ASHORE OVER NRN CA...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY A BIT
AFTER IT CROSSES THE ROCKIES THIS EVENING. MAIN CHANGE TO THE
ONGOING FORECAST HAS BEEN TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP ESPECIALLY
OVER THE ERN ZONES. WILL SEE SHSN MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL MTS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING WIDESPREAD OVER THE CONTDVD BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. SNOW AMTS FOR THE DVD WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
TOMORROW...WITH AMOUNTS GENERALLY FROM ONE TO FOUR INCHES...THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE COLLEGIATE RANGE.

OVER THE PLAINS...WILL BE ANOTHER PLEASANT DAY WITH TEMPS RISING
INTO THE LOWER 60S THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE I-25 CORRIDOR. FAR ERN
PLAINS SHOULD MIX OUT TODAY AND SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE 50S. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT...AND PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE THE ONLY DRAWBACK
TO AN OTHERWISE BEAUTIFUL MARCH DAY.

THE COLD FRONT FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM NOW LOOKS TO ARRIVE AFTER
00Z...SO HAVE CUT BACK POPS CONSIDERABLY THIS AFTERNOON E OF THE DVD.
WILL SEE THE FRONT DROP ACROSS THE PALMER SOMETIME IN THE EARLY
EVENING...AND POPS WILL BE HIGHEST WITH AND BEHIND THE
FRONT...GENERALLY IN THE 03Z TO 09Z TIME FRAME. WILL PROBABLY SEE
ONE MAIN BAND OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND QPF LOOKS GENERALLY
LIGHT. COULD SEE A BRIEF BIT OF RAIN BEFORE THINGS CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW OVER NRN EL PASO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE INITIAL WARM AIR...AND
THE RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION...DO NOT THINK SNOW AMTS WILL BE TOO
GREAT. EXPECT ABOUT ONE TO THREE INCHES OVERALL. KCOS MAY ONLY PICK
UP A TRACE TO POSSIBLY AN INCH. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS ALSO
POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OVER THE ERN PLAINS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY ACCUMS THERE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MILD
GIVEN THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE. PRECIP WILL BE MOVING OUT OF OUR
AREA FROM NW TO SE BY EARLY WED MORNING. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

...ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN AHEAD WITH A COUPLE OF POTENTIAL
SPRING STORMS IMPACTING THE MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS...

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY LOOK DRY AND MILD UNDER A RIDGE OF WARM
HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE PRETTY CLOSE TO
AVERAGE...BUT READINGS ON THURSDAY WILL BE ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH SOME WIND AT TIMES...BUT NOTHING TOO STRONG.

A STORM DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS UTAH FRIDAY. SNOW DEVELOPS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...SPREADS TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PIKES PEAK REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND THEN SPREADS
EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING. SOME BRIEF RAIN INITIALLY
BELOW 8000 FEET FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL DROPPING TO
ABOUT 6000 FEET FRIDAY EVENING...AND THEN PRETTY MUCH DOWN TO THE
FLOOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODEL QPFS HAVE BEEN
PRETTY HIGH FOR A FEW RUNS NOW...INDICATING MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH. TEMPERATURES ARE MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH FOR THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...SO SNOW SHOULD BE OF THE WET VARIETY OFTEN ASSOCIATED
WITH SPRING. UPPER AND SURFACE PATTERN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR THE
HEAVIEST SNOW TO FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
PLAINS...DRIVEN BY NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP...OVER 8C/KM IN THE MID LEVELS AT THE
ONSET OF PRECIPITATION...SO THIS SHOULD HELP JUMP START THE STORM
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. STORM HAS LOTS
OF THAT CLASSIC SPRING POTENTIAL...BUT THE KEY WORD HERE IS
POTENTIAL SINCE IT IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS AWAY. HAVE STARTED
BOOSTING POPS AND QPF IN THE GRIDS FOR LATE FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY TO SHOW THE DEVELOPING TREND. HOWEVER...IF TRENDS
CONTINUE...BOTH THE POPS AND QPF WILL HAVE TO GO UP MUCH
HIGHER...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BRING A RETURN TO DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS
AGAIN UNDER A NEW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A WEAK SYSTEM COULD
BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE AND BRING A LITTLE SNOW TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE MONDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY EXTENDING TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT PLAINS MONDAY EVENING. ANOTHER...POTENTIALLY
MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT STORM...COULD IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BUT...THIS STORM IS BEYOND THE LAST
DAY OF THE CURRENT EXTENDED FORECAST AND STILL OVER 7 DAYS AWAY...SO
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THIS ONE YET. STAY TUNED. LW

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 326 AM MST TUE MAR 4 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE KCOS
TERMINAL. AS MENTIONED IN THE MAIN AFD...BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR
KCOS WILL BE IN THE 03Z-09Z TIME FRAME...AND THE AREA COULD PICK UP
SOME LIGHT ACCUMS BUT GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH. THE PALMER DVD WILL
SEE SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. KCOS COULD SEE IFR CIGS FROM AROUND 05Z
THROUGH 11Z...WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS TO VIS AS WELL. AT KPUB...ONLY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR IS EXPECTED DURING THE SAME TIME
FRAME...ALTHOUGH COULD BRIEFLY BE AFFECTED BY ISOLD-SCT SHSN
OVERNIGHT. LIKEWISE...KALS COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR IN LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVE ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE LIGHT...BUT OVER THE PALMER DVD AND NRN EL PASO COULD SEE SOME
GUSTY N WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT THIS EVENING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...ROSE