000
FXUS65 KPUB 311756
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1156 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS OVER THE CWA WITH
VALUES GREATER THAN ONE INCH OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH COULD
HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. MAIN QUESTION IS THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY. THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING OVER THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS..SAWATCH RANGE AND SAN LUIS VALLEY FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. ON THE PLAINS..ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE AND THE CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION ARE MODEST DESPITE THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE. MAIN
CHALLENGE WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF STABILITY OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR AS WEAK EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS. STILL
BELIEVE THAT CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ENOUGH TO GET SOME HEATING
DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE AND STRONGER
STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WET MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR. WILL BE MONITORING THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WILL STILL HAVE TO CLOSELY WATCH WALDO CANYON AND TELLER COUNTY.
WITH ABUNDANT...FLASH FLOODING IS STILL A THREAT...FROM EVEN A
MODESTLY STRONG STORM. --PGW--

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AS OF
09Z...PROBABLY DUE TO FORCING FROM DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH NRN CO
ATTM. WIDESPREAD STRATUS HAS BEEN FILLING ALONG AND WEST OF I-25
THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING.

CHALLENGE TODAY WILL BE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND RESULTANT
DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  PRECIPITABLE WATERS COME DOWN A BIT
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH...THOUGH FOR THE SOUTHEAST
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR THEY STILL AROUND 1.0 TO 1.25.
SUFFICIENT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MEANWHILE... PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY REMAIN
PRETTY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY.  FORECAST MODELS FIRE OFF ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY SPREAD
INTO THE ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  PERSISTENCE OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE MAIN
CHALLENGE TODAY AS THEY MOVE OFF INTO THE ADJACENT I-25 CORRIDOR.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN PRETTY MOIST...AND THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A
CAP EVIDENT.  HOWEVER...WHERE CLOUDS LINGER...IT MAY BE TOUGH TO
REALIZE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY MOVE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS.  CONSIDERED GOING WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS TOO MUCH
VARIABILITY IN THE SHORT RANGE/HIGH RES MODELS ON WHERE THE HEAVIER
QPF MAY FALL. OVERALL PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST A TAD DRIER IN THE
NORTH...AND GREATEST THREAT OVER THE SANGRES...WETS...AND PERHAPS
SOUTHERN I-25 CORRIDOR.  SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND SAN LUIS VALLEY
WILL ALSO HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. BUT FOR NOW THREAT LOOKS TOO
ISOLATED IN NATURE TO WARRANT A WATCH.  WILL HOLD OFF AND LET LATER
SHIFTS SEE HOW THINGS EVOLVE...AS IT ALL WILL DEPEND ON AMOUNT OF
CLEARING/SFC HEATING WHICH CAN TAKE PLACE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  AS
ALWAYS...BURN SCARS...URBAN AREAS...AND LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE UNDER THE GREATEST THREAT.

EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR COUNTIES...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TOO STABLE AND
THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LOW.  TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD
MODERATE SOME OVER THOSE OF YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM FOR PLACES LIKE COLORADO SPRINGS WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER
THE LONGEST.  KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE ALONG THE I-25
CORRIDOR.

THUNDERSTORMS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITHIN THE MONSOON PLUME OUT WEST. -KT

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

POPS AND TEMPERATURES ARE PRIMARY METEOROLOGICAL ISSUES
DURING THE LONGER TERM.

RECENT FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND COMPUTER SIMULATIONS KEEP
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER PRIMARILY WESTERN 2/3RDS OF THE
FORECAST DISTRICT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
PROJECTED DURING THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
REGION.

THEN A RETURN TO A MORE MOIST METEOROLOGICAL PATTERN REDEVELOPS
OVER THE CWFA FROM LATER MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS TWO
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SURGES MOVE ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS MONDAY
EVENING AND TUESDAY NIGHT RESPECTIVELY.

UPPER RIDGE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AT 12Z FRIDAY SHIFTS INTO
COLORADO BY 12Z SUNDAY AND THEN PUSHES BACK SOUTH INTO NEW MEXICO
FROM LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

INTERSTATE 25 PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER AROUND 1 INCH INTO
FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW ONE INCH DURING THE
WEEKEND. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THEN INCREASE TO ABOVE 1 INCH
FROM MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AFORE-MENTIONED NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
MOIST SURGES IMPACT THE CWFA.

AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE NOTED FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN FROM LATER MONDAY INTO
NEXT WEDNESDAY WITH LOWER GRADE ACTIVITY(ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS) ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF THESE
TIME-FRAMES.

THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED HYDRO/FLASH FLOODING
ISSUES...ESPECIALLY OVER AREA BURN SCARS AND LOCATIONS WHICH
RECEIVED RECENT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.

GENERALLY BELOW SEASONAL EARLY AUGUST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
ANTICIPATED OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DISTRICT INTO
SATURDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THEN RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE EARLY AUGUST CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1127 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

AT KCOS AND KPUB...STORMS COULD MOVE OFF OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ANTICIPATED COVERAGE IS
SUFFICIENTLY SMALL THAT ONLY HAVE VCTS IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS TONIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINS ON THE PLAINS.

AT KALS...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS
AND MOVE INTO THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. HAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF
VCTS IN TAF AS STORM COVERAGE TYPICALLY IS LOW IN THE VALLEY. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR SUB VFR CONDITIONS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. --PGW--

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PGW
AVIATION...PGW