000
FXUS65 KPUB 231940
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1240 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING IN LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA AND TWEEK
HIGHS AT TAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

...WEAK FRONT TO MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS TODAY WITH A SMATTERING OF
SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION...

CURRENTLY...

A COLD MORNING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS AT 3 AM IN THE TEENS TO NEAR
ZERO ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALONG THE LOWER ARK RVR
VALLEY FROM PUEBLO TO THE CO/KS BORDER. THE VALLEYS WERE QUITE COLD
WITH KALS DOWN TO -8F AND GUNNISON VALLEY DOWN BELOW ZERO. BANANA
BELT AREAS WERE WARMEST WITH 20S ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE S
MTNS...CANON CITY WAS WARMEST WITH A READING OF 26F.

TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WEAK FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MOVE DOWN THE PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL
BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SFC WINDS ON THE PLAINS WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS ALL AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER TODAY AND INTO THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE THE C MTNS...WITH SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE IN THE PIKES PEAK REGION...INCLUDING N EL PASO COUNTY. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE S SANGRES LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
THIS EVENING. SOME GUIDANCE HAS A FEW SHOWERS ON THE PLAINS BELOW
5000 FT E OF THE INTERSTATE THIS EVENING...BUT I AM GOING TO HOLD
OFF ON MENTIONING ANY PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS FOR NOW.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL WARM UP A BIT DUE TO MIXING AND THE COLDER AIR
EXITING THE REGION. HOWEVER...SNOW COVER AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT THE WARMTH. EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE U30S TO A FEW M40S
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TODAY. 20S TO AROUND 30 WILL OCCUR IN
THE SAN LUIS VALLEY. WARMEST TEMPS WILL OCCUR JUST EAST OF THE WET
MTNS.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE WARMER THAN THIS MORNINGS LOW DUE TO THE WINDS
KEEPING UP A BIT TONIGHT AND CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 20S TO UPPER TEENS. THE SLV WILL BE COLD AGAIN WITH SINGLE
DIGITS. A FEW U20S WILL BE POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE WET
MTNS. /HODANISH

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW BY MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY...AND REACHING THE
UPPER 50S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION BOTH DAYS.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND MOVE EAST OVER COLORADO. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH THE
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WITH MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST TUESDAY
WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. WARM
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH
MID TO UPPER 60S FOR HIGHS. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
PRECIPITATION MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SAN
JUAN RANGE FAVORED OROGRAPHICALLY. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.

THURSDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH
CONTINUED COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 50S. A FEW LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1034 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT COS...PUB AND ALS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WILL SEE BREEZY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS AT COS AND PUB
THROUGH 06Z...WITH A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH PASSING ACROSS
THE STATE. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOICATED WITH THE PASSING SYSTEM
WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY AND CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN.


&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MW
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...MW