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FXUS65 KPUB 221029
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
429 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

...Looking Much Drier For Today Than Earlier Thought...

Currently...

Regional radars not showing much in the way of precip at 3 am. In
CO, a few showers were still noted in far NE CO otherwise it was dry
from a radar perspective. The cold front has moved well into NM. Sfc
obs show its still moist over the region with L60 dwpts in ne CO and
50s in se CO. 40 and 50F dwpts were noted in the mtns. Water vapor,
especially the low level water vapor imagery from GOES 16, was
showing drying across se WY and far ne CO. This drying was
increasing in area and moving south.

Today...

Latest high res guidance and latest 06Z NAM have significantly
decreased the chances of rain over a good part of the region today.
At this time the best chance of rain will be down along the CO/NM
border, especially the San Juans and the east slopes of the southern
Sangre de Cristo mtns/Raton Mesa region. Farther north, the HRRR has
dramatically cut back on precip chances, in matter of fact, it keeps
the I-25 corridor completely dry from about Walsenburg northward to
the Palmer Divide. This is likely a bit too dry as I do think we
will see some precip today, but not nearly as much as earlier
thought. Given the drier solutions, the chance of heavy rain and
associated flash flooding on the burn scars has significantly
decreased today, especially for areas N of a line from Creede to
Colorado City. Farther south, locally heavy convective rainfall is
likely. (Although the threat of heavy rain has decreased over the
Junkins, Hayden Pass and Waldo burn scars, the threat is not zero.
Any isolated convective storm over a burn scar can cause serious
problems).

Temps today will be about 8-10F cooler on the the plains then the
last several days. Expect highs in the 80s for most of El Paso
county and the plains adjacent to the mtns, and 90s farther east.
60s and 70s are expected in the mtns.

Tonight...

Best chance of precip will be down along the CO/NM border and it
may last into the early morning hours before ending. best chance
for clouds to linger will be south of US-50. Min temps should cool
into the 50s and 60s plains with 30s to L50s over the higher
terrain. /Hodanish


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

The plume of monsoon moisture stays south and west of the area
Sunday with a few thunderstorms forming in and near the
mountains, but considerably less thunderstorms at the lower
elevations. High temperatures remain in the 80s on the plains on
Sunday.

The generally drier conditions persists through Monday. On
Tuesday, the upper high becomes reestablished over the southern
plains. This allows for increasing southwesterly flow
aloft, bringing mid and upper level moisture back into the area.
High temperatures gradually warm back into the 90s for highs on
the plains.

Thunderstorm chances increase again for the lower elevations by
the middle of the week although there is some uncertainty in the
position of the upper ridge and therefore uncertainty in where the
monsoon plume sets up. Overall, not a lot of change in the
forecast for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 347 AM MDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Best chance of storms today will be over KALS. KCOS and KPUB may
remain completely dry today although cant rule it out 100%. Winds
will be light at all taf sites, mainly from an easterly component at
KCOS and KPUB and southerly at KALS. Some locally heavy convective
rain is possible at KALS this afternoon and early evening. If
rain does occur at KALS, then some fog will be possible tomorrow
morning.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...HODANISH