000
FXUS65 KPUB 241538
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
938 AM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 937 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Updated for some minor adjustments to POPs today. Rose

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Currently...a large upper level low is currently moving into central
Wyoming early this morning.  All convection has cleared well east of
the area and winds have subsided.  Temperatures are cool with mid 40s
to lower 50s over the plains.  Observations and webcams indicate
light snow is falling over the higher elevations of the central
mountains.

Today...the upper low is forecast to lift northeast into the Dakotas
by this afternoon, with an upper level trough stretching southward
across Colorado into the desert southwest.  Northwest flow aloft
will keep light precipitation falling mainly over the central
mountains through this afternoon, with a few showers south into the
San Juan range, and Rampart range.  Snow levels look to remain above
9 kft where an inch or two of snow accumulations are possible
through this afternoon.  Otherwise, mostly sunny and cooler
conditions will prevail over southern Colorado. Highs will reach
into the mid 70s for the lower elevations.

Tonight...not much change with the upper pattern with the low over
North Dakota and trough stretching into the desert southwest.  A
cold front will drop south across the plains tonight with
northeasterly upslope flow developing behind it.  Lack of moisture
should keep the plains dry, with mid to high level clouds spreading
across the region.  Light precipitation will remain possible during
the evening hours over the central mountains, but should dissipate
overnight.  Overnight lows will be cool with mid 40s across the
plains. The San Luis Valley will see lows in the lower 30s. Mozley

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

...Cooler than Average then Warmer than Average...

Upper high pressure will build in over Colorado for the next few
days...holding low pressure and moisture well to the south of the
state...across New Mexico and Arizona.  In the wake of the early
fall storm system moving through the region, Sunday and to a lesser
extent Monday, will be cooler than average across the region.  Highs
on Sunday will be about 5-10 degrees below average. Highs on Monday
will bump up a little but still be a few degrees below average in
most cases. Monday morning will be another cool one across the
region with lows near or below freezing in most of the mountain
areas.  On the plains, Monday morning will likely be the coolest
night of the week. Clear skies, light winds and dry air should allow
for good radiational cooling. Lows Monday morning will probably be
the coolest so far this season for the plains, generally ranging
from the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. It doesn`t currently look
like temperatures will be cold enough, long enough to bring an end
to the growing season but some patchy frost could occur in a few
areas, possibly nipping some of the more tender vegetation. No
precipitation is expected Sunday or Monday.

Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures will warm back up above average
again.  Generally dry weather will continue.  However, a little bit
of moisture will begin to creep into the southwest mountains
Wednesday afternoon, possibly triggering an isolated shower or
thunderstorm along the Continental Divide by late in the day.

Thursday and Friday, the old upper low over New Mexico and Arizona
will finally get picked by increasing flow ahead of a new system
entering the Pacific Northwest.  This will kick the system and
whatever moisture it has left east across Colorado Thursday and
Friday, with the best chance for precipitation coming Thursday
afternoon and evening.  All-in-all, the system doesn`t appear as
though it will have much moisture left when if finally moves
across. However, there will be concerns of lightning and gusty
winds with any thunderstorms that develop. Additionally, a few of
the more intense storms could contain locally heavy rain or small
hail, especially Thursday afternoon and evening. The system will
have little or no cool air left by Thursday so temperatures
probably won`t change much as it moves through. However, a couple
of degrees of cooling seems reasonable just based on the increase
in clouds and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 342 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

VFR conditions through the next 24 hours for all three terminals.  A
cold front will move south across KCOS and KPUB by 06z/Sun with a
northerly wind shift and gusts 25-30 kts possible as the front
passes.  Mid clouds will fill in behind the front at both locations
into Sunday morning. Mozley


&&

.PUB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ROSE
SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...LW
AVIATION...MOZLEY