000
FXUS65 KPUB 091108
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
408 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

CURRENTLY...SOUTHERN COLORADO IS BETWEEN TROUGHS WITH ONE EXITING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHILE ANOTHER IS TRACKING EAST ACROSS
UTAH.  THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR POCKETS OF CLEARING EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR UNDER ZERO DEGREES FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION. THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING WHERE SKIES
HAVE CLEARED. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS ALLOWED LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS TO FORM NEAR CANON CITY...NORTHEAST INTO EL PASO COUNTY.
LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ARE OCCURRING UNDER THESE LOW CLOUDS BUT NO
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE ALSO FALLING
OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING.

TODAY...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER UTAH WILL QUICKLY TRACK ACROSS
SOUTHERN COLORADO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  THERE IS VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...WITH ONLY LIGHT SNOW
ANTICIPATED FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
TROUGH PASSES.  ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY BE AN INCH OR TWO ON AREA PEAKS.  TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH GENERALLY TEENS AND PERHAPS
A FEW LOW 20S DOWN NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST OF THE AREA
WITH BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.  EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO BY TUESDAY MORNING
BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN WE HAVE SEEN LATELY AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM ALOFT.  MOZLEY

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH A FEW FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVES AND REINFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

CHALLENGE FOR TUESDAY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF WARM UP ACROSS THE
PLAINS AS SFC LEE TROF DEEPENS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WILL
SPREAD DOWN THE LOWER EAST FACING SLOPES AND PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
MIXING FOR SOME LOWER TO MID 40S ALONG/WEST OF I-25 CORRIDOR. COULD
EVEN SEE A BRIEF MTN WAVE SETUP LATE TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING WITH SOME
GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ALONG THE LEE OF THE RAMPART RANGE. FARTHER
EAST HOWEVER...THINK THAT COLD AIR WILL BE HARDER TO MIX OUT
AND HAVE GONE ON THE COLDER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.   OTHERWISE...SYSTEM
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY.

COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH
SHOULD KNOCK BACK HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY A FEW DEGREES.  THEN THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE COAST OF BAJA WILL PUSH INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
FOR THURSDAY.  MOISTURE IS LACKING THIS THIS SYSTEM TOO...AND ANY
LIFT APPEARS TO STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA WITH BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL ADVECT
WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A NICE WARM UP BACK INTO
THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREES FOR THE SE PLAINS.  WITH LIGHT WINDS
ALOFT...THE SAN LUIS VALLEY MAY HAVE A TOUGH TIME WARMING...SO HAVE
GONE QUITE A BIT BELOW GUIDANCE THERE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FOR
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THIS SYSTEM TOO LOOKS FAIRLY DRY.  ANOTHER
DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA WHICH COOLS SATURDAY BACK
A FEW DEGREES...THEN PERHAPS WARMER FOR SUNDAY AS NEXT LEE SIDE LOW
REDEVELOPS.  -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 346 AM MST MON DEC 9 2013

KCOS...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS HAVE HELP GENERATE LOW CIGS AND LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE TERMINAL THIS MORNING.  EXPECT SNOW TO COME TO AN
END AND CIGS TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z AS WINDS TURN MORE SOUTHERLY.
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z AND LASTING INTO TUESDAY.

KALS AND KPUB...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNALLY DRIVEN WINDS.  MOZLEY

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOZLEY
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOZLEY