000
FXUS65 KPUB 221047
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
447 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

...HOT WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN AND NEAR
THE MOUNTAINS...

THE HEAT IS ON. A LARGE...WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PRETTY
MUCH CENTERED OVER COLORADO TODAY...BRINGING ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT TO
MOST OF THE REGION.  ENOUGH MONSOON MOISTURE EXISTS BENEATH THE
RIDGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  BY
AFTERNOON...MODELS HAVE STEERING WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT OVER THE REGION
SO STORMS MAY SHOW LITTLE MOVEMENT INITIALLY.  DURING THE EVENING...
MODELS SHOWS STEERING WINDS BECOMING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH
MEANS THAT STORMS MAY START TO SHOW A WESTWARD DRIFT INTO THE
MOUNTAINS...CONTRARY TO THE USUAL EASTWARD DRIFT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THIS COULD MEAN MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST
OF I-25 DURING THE EVENING...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE CORRIDOR HAVE
LITTLE OR NO ACTIVITY.

AS A CAUTIONARY...THE WINDS OVER EL PASO AND TELLER COUNTIES ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE EVENING WHICH COULD LEAD
TO STORMS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE RAMPART RANGE...INCLUDING THE
WALDO CANYON BURN SCAR AREA.  SO...OF COURSE...THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

NOT MUCH SEVERE POTENTIAL TODAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SHEAR IN THE
ATMOSPHERE.  PRIMARY THREATS WILL INCLUDED LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.  MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD END
BY MIDNIGHT.  HOWEVER...MODELS KEEP IT GOING JUST A BIT LONGER OVER
THE PIKES PEAK REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  WILL
LEAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PAST MIDNIGHT FOR THOSE AREAS TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBLE SCENARIO.

BEING UNDER THE CENTER OF A LARGE UPPER HIGH IN LATE JULY...IT WILL
BE HOT AGAIN TODAY...WITH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE AT MOST LOCATIONS. PROBABLY NOT RECORDS...BUT GETTING
CLOSE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE IT GRADUALLY GETS FLATTENED AS UPPER TROF
MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF COLORADO WEDNESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING TO SOUTHERN COLORADO
THURSDAY. MODELS KEEP MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. STILL TOASTY WARM
WEDNESDAY ALTHOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE NUMBERS HAVE BEEN TOO WARM GIVEN
THE AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS SOMEWHAT FLAT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
IT BEGINS TO REBUILD FARTHER TO THE WEST...THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN
WITH TROF DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...THE
FIRST WILL BE FRIDAY WITH A REINFORCING BOUNDARY TO MOVE THROUGH THE
PLAINS SUNDAY. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY BETTER CHANCES FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH THE BEST MONSOON MOISTURE LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST DURING THIS PERIOD. STARK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 444 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ANOTHER DAY OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FLIGHT
AREA.  MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WEST OF I-25.  STEERING WINDS TODAY WILL BE PRETTY LIGHT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON SO LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT INITIALLY.  BY THIS
EVENING...MODELS INDICATE STEERING WINDS BECOMING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY...WHICH WOULD PUSH ANY ACTIVITY WESTWARD...BACK INTO
THE MOUNTAINS...CONTRARY TO THE USUAL EASTWARD DRIFT ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

KALS AND KCOS WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEEING STORMS TODAY.
KPUB IS PROBABLY TOO FAR WEST FOR ANY STORMS TODAY.  FIRST STORMS
SHOULD FIRE AROUND NOON...WITH MOST ACTIVITY OVER BY MIDNIGHT.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST SLIGHTLY LONGER OVER THE PIKES PEAK
REGION AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. LOCAL MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN STORMS. OTHER CONCERNS WILL INCLUDE LIGHTNING
AND ERRATIC DOWNBURST WINDS GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LW
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...LW