Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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173
FXUS65 KPUB 130506
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1006 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

BASED ON LOW CLOUDS ALREADY ENTERING NORTHEAST KIOWA COUNTY...SEEMS
LIKE PROGRESSION OF LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY FOG OR DRIZZLE WILL BE
RELATIVELY UNINHIBITED INTO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT. WENT
AHEAD AND INCREASED LOW CLOUD...FOG...DRIZZLE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY FROM ROUGHLY PUEBLO EASTWARD FOR OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPPER RIDGE MIGRATES EASTWARD THROUGH THE ROCKIES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WHILE COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS SURFACE HIGH RETREATS AND LEE
SIDE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO...RESULTING
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...MAINLY NEAR THE KS BORDER. MIGHT ALSO SEE SOME LOWER
CLOUDS WRAP BRIEFLY WESTWARD AROUND THE LOW INTO EASTERN PUEBLO/EL
PASO COUNTIES...THOUGH DURATION OF ANY CLOUD COVER WILL BE FAIRLY
BRIEF. LEE TROUGH KICKS EASTWARD TOWARD THE KS BORDER ON SAT AS FLOW
ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF WAVE DROPPING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY AS PRESSURE FALLS
OVER THE PLAINS INDUCE AN EXPANDING AREA OF DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WITH
KIOWA COUNTY LIKELY THE LAST TO CLEAR. WITH WARMER WESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS ALL THE AREA BY AFTERNOON...SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS CONTINUE TO
RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND A FEW 70F READINGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN
OVER DOWNSLOPE WARMED AREAS ALONG THE SOUTHERN I25 CORRIDOR.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

...SOME SNOW FOR THE CENTRAL MTNS...

ALTHOUGH THE WEATHER WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND GENERALLY UNSEASONABLY
WARM DURING THIS LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES THAT WILL BRING SOME SNOW THE CENTRAL MTN
REGION. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL AFFECT THE MTNS SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...AND THE 2ND SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH AT THE END OF THE
WEEK. SEVERAL INCHES OF WIND DRIVEN SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
BOTH SYSTEMS.

SUNDAY...

FIRST SYSTEM IN NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...MAINLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ALL
OF THE MTNS AND HIGHER MTN VALLEYS...AND THE C MTNS WILL SEE SNOW
WITH THIS EVENT...WITH GENERALLY 2-5" POSSIBLE. SOME GUIDANCE DOES
SHOW A CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PARTS OF THE PLAINS SUNDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE PRECIP MAINLY OCCURRING NORTH
OF A LINE FROM COLORADO SPRINGS TO SPRINGFIELD. ATTM...I DO NOT
EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION PRECIP OVER THE PLAINS.

TEMPS WILL BE MILD ON SUNDAY....BUT WILL BE A GOOD 10F COOLER THAN
THE HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY. EXPECT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WITH 40S VALLEYS.

MONDAY...

A FEW PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL LINGER IN THE C MTNS ON THIS
DAY...OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL WARM UP A BIT...WITH
HIGHS BEING ABOUT 3-5F WARMER THAN SUNDAY.

TUESDAY...WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

TEMPS WILL BE WARMING UP AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL BE
DRY OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WITH MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 60S ON
TUESDAY WARMING INTO THE 70S ON THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME PRECIP OVER THE MTNS BY
LATE THURSDAY AS THE 2ND SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE REGION.

THE BRUNT OF THE 2ND SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT US ON FRIDAY...BUT
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY. MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THE ACCUMULATION SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
CONTDVD.

...

GIVEN THE RATHER STRONG FLOW OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
INTO MIDWEEK...IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY/WINDY IN THE MTNS. IN
ADDITION...WE WILL LIKELY SEE PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
PLAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WIND PRONE GAP FLOW REGIONS (N PUEBLO/S
EL PASO COUNTIES AND GREATER WALSENBURG AREA). /HODANISH

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 959 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

E WINDS OVER THE PLAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE LOW CIGS AND BR/FG
WWD OVERNIGHT. SHOULD SEE CIGS MOVE UP THE ARKANSAS AFTER 07Z AND
WILL LIKELY SEE SOME RESTRICTIONS AT OR JUST E OF KPUB THROUGH
14-16Z SAT MORNING. LESS CERTAIN AT KCOS...BUT COULD SEE LOW CIGS
OVER SRN EL PASO COUNTY VC KCOS THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING.
KALS WILL REMAIN VFR. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER 15Z SAT...AND THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME LEE SIDE TB ALONG AND
E OF THE SANGRES...WETS...AND RAMPARTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONGER RIDGE TOP WINDS WILL SHIFT NWD MAINLY
OVER THE PIKES PEAK REGION BY SUN MORNING. ROSE

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...PETERSEN
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...ROSE



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