Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 061021
AFDPUB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
421 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

...SOME HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE C AND S MTNS TODAY...ALSO COULD
SEE SOME STRONG/SVR STORMS IN THE HIGHER TRRN TODAY...

CURRENTLY...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION HAS REACHED DOWN TO THE
CO/NM BORDER REGION AS OF 2 AM. LLVL MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE
REGION AND DWPTS OVER THE SE PLAINS RANGED FROM 57-60F. MOISTURE WAS
ALSO NOTED IN THE MTNS WITH DWPTS AOA 50F IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
CHAFFEE COUNTY...M50S IN THE SAN LUIS VALLEY AND 40S IN THE MTNS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WAS MOVING OVER THE PLAINS...AND THIS SYSTEM WAS
PRODUCING A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSRA THAT WERE MOVG NE.

ANOTHER BOUNDARY...THE "TRUE" COOL FRONT...WAS PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NE CO...AND EXTENDED ROUGHLY FROM N OF DIA TO THE CO/KS/NE BORDER AT
2 AM.

TODAY THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...

IT WILL LIKELY BE A BUSY DAY TODAY WX-WISE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER THE MTNS TODAY. THE COOL FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER NE CO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TODAY...AND BY THIS
AFTERNOON DEEP MODEST UPSLOPE WILL BE OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO. THIS
UPSLOPE WILL IMPINGE OVER ALL OF THE MTNS IN THE FCST AREA...AND
CAPES ARE FCST TO BE IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE OVER THE HIGHER
TRRN. LLVL SHEAR WILL ALSO BE RELATIVELY STRONG IN
PLACES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE C MTNS/UPPER ARK VALLEY....THE WET
MTN VALLEY AND THE SANGRES AND WET MTN AREAS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT WE MAY SEE SOME ROTATING CONVECTION IN THESE AREAS
TODAY. GIVEN THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND CAPE...AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN
ARE LIKELY. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS/SPANISH PEAKS REGION. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS THE C MTNS...ESPECIALLY CHAFFEE COUNTY. OTHER AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL WILL BE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PIKES PEAK REGION/FREMONT COUNTY...THE WET MTNS...AND THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN MTNS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER RAIN
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAS ANIMAS COUNTY AND BACA COUNTY MAY
ALSO SEE SOME STRONG STORMS TODAY AND THIS AREA IS HIGHLIGHTED AS
MARGINAL RISK IN SPC`S 0600Z OUTLOOK.

MOST OF THE REST OF THE PLAINS MAY NOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP
THIS AFTERNOON AS IT WILL SIMPLY BE TOO STABLE FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.

LATER TONIGHT...

BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE MAINLY ALONG THE S SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTN REGION AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SAN JUANS MAINLY S OF SOUTH
FORK. REST OF AREA WILL LIKELY BE DRY...ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS EAST
OF I-25. LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS LIKELY TONIGHT OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF
THE PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD WITH SMALL ENSEMBLE SPREADS. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

TUESDAY...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THE BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS COLORADO BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES OVERHEAD. LOW
LEVEL MOIST FLOW WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
MODELS ARE INDICATING LOCATIONS ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY SEE ENHANCED RAINFALL. FLOODING POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES. MODELS
KEEP THE EASTERN PLAINS DRY ON TUESDAY. COOLER AIR AND STABLE
CONDITIONS SHOULD HELP KEEP CONVECTION REDUCED EAST OF I-25.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL REMAIN COOL
WITH 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR THE PLAINS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...A SOUTHWESTERLY MOIST MONSOON TAP IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
COLORADO THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS DEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE MORNING AND SPREADING
THEM EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...MODEST CAPE AND SHEAR COULD CAUSE A FEW OF THE STORMS
TO BECOME AT LEAST STRONG...PRIMARILY OUT NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND
HEAVY RAINFALL ARE ALL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AN ELEVATED FLOOD RISK ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE REGION.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION. HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH A CONTINUED ELEVATED
FLOOD RISK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE MULTIPLE DAYS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAK INSTABILITY AND MODEST SHEAR MAY ALLOW FOR A COUPLE
OF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND HEAVY
RAINFALL...OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

BY FRIDAY THE UPPER PATTERN BEGINS TO TRANSITION AS THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS BEGINS TO RETROGRADE INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PINCH OFF THE SOUTHWESTERLY
MOISTURE TAP ACROSS THE ROCKIES. STILL EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL PUSH OFF INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS FRIDAY EVENING...HOWEVER COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
THAT SEEN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES FOR THE WEEKEND FORCING THE MOISTURE TAP WEST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. EXPECT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS. WEAK STEERING FLOWS WILL KEEP STORMS TIED TO THE
TERRAIN WITH DRY HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK WITH MID
TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE REGION BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.  MOZLEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 355 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

KCOS...

SHOWERS/ISOLD TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CIGS TODAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN VFR...BUT WILL LIKELY DECREASE TO MVFR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 07/06UTC. NORTH WINDS THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT TO GUSTY NE
WINDS BY NOON-ISH...BECOMING EASTERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SE MOIST
UPSLOPE WINDS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT

KPUB...

SHOULD SEE PRIMARILY VFR NEXT 24H. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ATTM...GUIDANCE IS NOT SHOWING
LOWER CIGS LATER TONIGHT...BUT I AM CONCERNED LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP
GIVEN THE MOIST E-SE SFC WINDS.

KALS...

VFR NEXT 24H. SOME THUNDER WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. LOWER
CIGS POSSIBLE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN VFR CATEGORY.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOZLEY
AVIATION...HODANISH


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